In last week's weekly report, based on the daily level trend structure of Bitcoin, we clearly stated the core judgment that "the phase of oversold rebound has begun, and the height of the rebound will determine the subsequent market direction"; at the same time, we issued a warning that there is a significant probability of adjustment near "Endpoint 61 (72.97 USD)" for HYPE. This week's market trajectory further validated the effectiveness of the above analytical framework: Bitcoin completed several stages of rebound as expected and reached key resistance levels, while HYPE faced resistance and fell back near 72.97 USD, with a maximum drop of 9.39% at one point.
This week's report will be based on this, combining the latest 4-hour and daily level trend structures and self-built quantitative model signals, to provide a detailed breakdown of the price interpretation paths and specific operational strategies for BTC and HYPE.
Summary of core trading viewpoints this week:
• Analysis of BTC multi-cycle trend structure (details in the first part)
• BTC price forecast and medium- and short-term trading strategies (details in the second part)
• HYPE hourly level trend structure analysis (details in the third part)
• HYPE price forecast and short-term trading strategies (details in the fourth part)
Market validation of last week's trading strategies and core viewpoints:
• BTC price trend forecast market validation: In last week's article, it was clearly pointed out that Bitcoin has entered the daily level oversold rebound phase, emphasizing that the height of this rebound will determine the subsequent market direction. Currently, the market trajectory is developing in the direction we predicted.
• HYPE price trend forecast market validation: In last week's article, it was indicated that HYPE has a significant probability of adjusting near "Endpoint 61" (72.97 USD). Currently, the market trend is highly consistent with our judgment.
1. Analysis of Bitcoin's previous cycle trend structure
1. Analysis of Bitcoin's daily level trend structure: (based on market analysis after May 6)
Bitcoin daily K-line chart
Figure 1
① As shown in (Figure 1): The adjustment market that started from the high point of 82,850 USD on May 6 has already exhibited a four-segment adjustment structure of (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), (3-4).
② After reaching a low point of 57,820 USD on July 1, the current market is running the (3-4) rebound segment, and the price has broken through the 64,500 USD resistance level. In the previous weekly review, it was clearly stated: if this round of rebound first breaks through the 64,500 USD resistance and then the 65,700 USD resistance (best), then the probability of the (3-4) rebound segment ending with a pullback stabilizing above the low point of 57,820 USD greatly increases, indicating that a rebound market will follow.
③ At the daily level, the coin price overlaps through the three segments of (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4), preliminarily forming a "descending center" (as shown in the figure). According to the above analysis, the market is highly likely to enter the "center extension" stage next, meaning this "center" is formed by overlapping five segments or even more. This indicates that the short-term market will enter a consolidation pattern.
2. In-depth analysis of Bitcoin's hourly level trend structure: (using 4 hours as the analysis cycle)
Bitcoin _4 hour K-line chart
Figure 2
① In the 4-hour chart, the rebound initiated from the low point of 57,820 USD on July 1 has clearly exhibited a three-segment structure of (44-45), (45-46), (46-47).
② According to the current trend structure analysis, the coin price is undergoing the (46-47) rebound segment. At the moment it created the local high point "Endpoint 47", the self-built "momentum quantitative model" displayed a clear top divergence signal, and the "spread trading model" touched the top warning signal (white point). Therefore, the probability of a technical adjustment at the hourly level here is very high. If the coin price retreats as expected, pay attention to the support effectiveness near "Endpoint 46". If this position shows signs of stabilization, another rebound will follow, with the primary upward target pointing to 65,700 USD; if the rebound momentum is strong, the next important target may look towards 67,300 USD.
2. Bitcoin price forecast and trading strategy for this week: (07.13～07.19)
1. BTC Price Trend Forecast for this Week:
This week's core viewpoint: Focus on the performance of the coin price near the key resistance level of 64,700 USD. If an adjustment occurs as expected, closely observe the effectiveness of support when it falls back around 61,500 USD; stabilization signals at this position will determine whether the subsequent rebound can continue.
2. Core Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Area: 64,700 USD area (previous central upper track position)
• Second Resistance Area: 65,700～67,300 USD area (previous important resistance area)
• Third Resistance Area: 69,500～71,000 USD area (previous important resistance area)
3. Core Support Levels:
• First Support Level: 60,950～62,000 USD area (previous important support level)
• Second Support Level: Near 57,820 USD (previous important support level)
• Third Support Level: Near 55,000 USD (previous important support level)
4. Trading Strategy for this Week (excluding unexpected news impacts):
① Medium-term Strategy: Bitcoin _Daily K-line chart: (Position Monitoring Model)
Figure 3
Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 3), the current coin price has effectively broken through the "long-short channel", confirming the market structure has shifted to a bearish dominant pattern.
• Current medium-term short positions should be maintained at around 20%.
• If the coin price rebounds to the 65,700～67,300 USD area and shows signs of stagnation, combined with the top signals from the self-built quantitative model, consider increasing the medium-term short position to within 50%.
② Short-term Strategy: Use 30% of position, set stop-loss points, based on support and resistance levels, looking for "spread" opportunities. (Using 30 minutes/60 minutes as the trading period)
③ In short-term operations, to dynamically respond to complex market developments, we have pre-drafted three specific operational plans A/B/C.
• Plan A: Test long positions at effective support in the 60,950～62,000 USD area. • Opening Position: If the coin price adjusts from around 64,700 USD, and falls to the 60,950～62,000 USD area and shows stabilization signals, combined with the bottom signals from the quantitative model, aggressive investors can establish long positions of about 15%. • Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss levels. • Closing Position: When rebounding near important resistance levels and combined with quantitative model signals, one can gradually close positions to take profits.
• Plan B: Test short positions at strong resistance areas. • Opening Position: If the coin price rebounds to the 65,700～67,300 USD area and meets resistance, combined with the top signals from the quantitative model, one can establish short positions of around 30%. • Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss levels. • Closing Position: When adjusting to important support levels and combined with model signals, one can gradually close positions to take profits.
• Plan C: Test long positions lightly at strong support areas. • Opening Position: If the coin price rebounds and breaks through 65,700 USD, then meets resistance and falls back. If a stabilization signal appears above the previous low of 57,820 USD during the adjustment and is combined with bottom signals from the quantitative model, one can establish long positions of about 30%. • Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss levels. • Closing Position: When rebounding near important resistance levels and combined with model signals, one can gradually close positions to take profits.
3. HYPE Hourly Level Trend Structure Analysis
HYPE_4 Hour K-line Chart
Figure 4
1. As shown in (Figure 4), HYPE rebounded from the low point of 58.5 USD (Endpoint 54) on June 25 to the high point of 72.97 USD (Endpoint 61) on July 7, which can be subdivided into seven-segment upward structures in the 4-hour cycle. Among them, the segments 55-56, 56-57, and 57-58 overlap to form an "upward center".
2. In the previous weekly review, it was pointed out that since the "Endpoint 54 to Endpoint 61" has completed a full seven-segment upward structure, and the top warning signals have triggered at "Endpoint 59" and "Endpoint 61", caution was advised regarding short-term adjustment risks. Last week, the market encountered resistance near 72.97 USD and began to adjust as expected. The maximum drop during the (61-62) adjustment segment was about 9.39%.
3. Based on the analysis of the 4-hour chart, the price is running in the (61-62) adjustment segment. Currently, "Endpoint 62" has broken below the previous low "Endpoint 60" (68.16 USD), which preliminarily disrupts the structure since the rise from "Endpoint 54".
4. HYPE Price Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategies for this Week
1. HYPE Price Trend Forecast for this Week:
① Core Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Level: 68～69.5 USD area
• Second Resistance Level: Near 72.97 USD
• Third Resistance Level: Near 76.94 USD
② Core Support Levels:
• First Support Level: Near 65.5 USD
• Second Support Level: 60.5～61.5 USD area
This week's core viewpoint on HYPE: Pay attention to the ending position of this adjustment at "Endpoint 62", and whether the subsequent rebound can break through the 72.97 USD resistance.
2. HYPE Short-term Trading Strategies for this Week: Short-term trading this week: Strategy One: If the (61-62) adjustment segment ends and the price rebounds and breaks through the 72.97 USD resistance, since it has approached the historical new high of 76.94 USD strong resistance area, it is recommended to maintain a holding pattern.
Strategy Two: Conversely, if the (61-62) adjustment segment ends and the price rebound cannot reach 72.97 USD, it is recommended to establish short positions at high levels. Strict stop-loss settings must be adhered to, with positions controlled within 30%.
5. Special Reminders:
- When opening positions: Immediately set the initial stop-loss levels.
- When profits reach 1%: Move the stop-loss level to the opening cost price (break-even point) to ensure capital safety.
- When profits reach 2%: Move the stop-loss level to the position where profits are 1%.
- Continuous tracking: After this, every time the coin price profits by 1%, the stop-loss level will move 1% simultaneously, providing dynamic protection and locking in profits.
The financial market is ever-changing, and all market analyses and trading strategies need to be dynamically adjusted. All viewpoints, analysis models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article originate from personal technical analysis, and are solely for personal trading logs, not constituting any investment advice or operating basis. The market carries risks, and investment should be conducted with caution; please do not decide based on this.
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