The first issue of "Jiang Feng Trading Diary", starting today, will continuously record and review all market analysis opinions in advance!
Today there is only one core view: the macro environment has not improved. Before any new positive fundamentals emerge, we still maintain a trading approach of shorting during rebounds, but do not recommend shorting at low levels.
Public opinions, advance analysis; insist on reviewing past actions, never delete posts, and do not engage in hindsight critiques.
1. Review of yesterday's market
In yesterday's article, we focused on the resistance area of $1850 to $1880 for ETH and clearly stated to maintain a bearish mindset.
Subsequently, ETH rebounded to around $1848, quickly fell back after hitting that level, and has dropped to around $1772, once again verifying the previous analytical logic.
To emphasize again:
Opinions made public in advance have value; reviewing them afterward is merely to verify logic, not to boast about results.
2. Today's fundamental analysis
Recently, the situation in Iran has escalated, pushing international oil prices higher, raising market concerns that rising energy prices may elevate U.S. inflation levels again. Against this backdrop, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, especially the two-year Treasury yield which has reached a temporary high, reflecting that the market is re-pricing the future interest rate path.
According to the latest data from CME, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has risen to 51.6%, and the probability of a 50 basis point hike is about 19.9%, indicating that expectations for further tightening of monetary policy have significantly strengthened.
Additionally, the inflow of funds into spot BTC ETFs has begun to cool down. Data shows that the net inflow on July 10 was approximately $90.4 million, significantly reduced compared to previous inflows of hundreds of millions, indicating a decrease in the driving force of institutional incremental funds.
Overall, the market currently faces three bearish factors:
Geopolitical risks raising inflation expectations; ongoing warming of market rate hike expectations; and a noticeable slowdown in ETF fund inflows.
Therefore, Jiang Feng believes that the current macro environment is still bearish, and in the short term, it is more prudent to wait for a rebound and look for shorting opportunities instead of blindly chasing price movements.
3. BTC market analysis
From the market perspective, BTC has retreated in the short term, and market sentiment has cooled down.
Although the price has adjusted, the sustainability of any rebounds is still worth observing until macro expectations improve.
Currently, it's crucial to focus on whether the resistance area around 64600 can be effectively broken. The EMA55 daily moving average is near 65600 acting as resistance, with short-term resistance around 63600, as well as previous highs around 64600 and the 261.8 extension line near 65300. If these positions hinder rebounds, short positions can be gradually established!
My opinion remains unchanged: the direction is bearish, continue to treat rebounds as shorting opportunities!
ETH is largely in sync, and I won't write a detailed analysis, so please refer to subsequent specific strategies.
Today's trading strategy
BTC:
For aggressive traders: engage in short positions around 63666 to 64600, stop loss: 65700, first target around 62600, second target 61800, third target around 60400 to 59600!
For conservative traders: engage in short positions around 65300 to 65800, stop loss: 67600, first target: 63600, second target: 62600 to 61800, third target: around 60400 to 59600! For those worried about missing out, I recommend taking a small position in advance!
ETH:
Engage in short positions during rebounds around 1810 to 1830 to 1850 to 1880, stop loss 1920, first target: 1750 to 1680, second target 1640, third target: around 1530.
Pay close attention to the performance of the upper pressure levels and do not recommend shorting at the current position. Be aware of the acceptance of wide stop losses and consider reducing position sizes; participate with light positions.
If subsequent inflation data cools down, ETF fund inflows increase again, or the geopolitical situation eases, market expectations may change rapidly. Moreover, the CPI data announced tomorrow will also impact market sentiment. Therefore, strict control of positions and proper stop-loss measures are required.
The above content only represents my personal market analysis and trading ideas, and does not constitute any investment advice.
The market trades on expectations, not results. Fundamentals dictate direction, while the technical aspect assists in entry points. Every trade is just about finding key positions and using controllable defenses to take risks; if correct, we hold with trailing stops, and if wrong, we decisively exit!
The first issue of "Jiang Feng Trading Diary", we will continue tomorrow!
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