"Jiangfeng Trading Diary" Issue 1, starting today, all market analysis perspectives will be recorded and reviewed in advance continuously!
Today there is only one core viewpoint: the macro environment has not improved, and before any new bullish fundamentals arise, we still maintain the trading mindset of shorting on rebounding highs, but do not recommend shorting at low levels.
Public viewpoints, advanced analysis; adhere to reviewing, never delete posts, and do not do hindsight analysis.
1. Review of Yesterday's Market
In yesterday's article, ETH focused on the pressure zone of $1850～$1880 and clearly proposed to maintain a high short strategy.
Subsequently, ETH rebounded to around $1848, quickly falling back after touching this level, and has since dropped to a low of around $1772, further validating the previous analysis logic.
Emphasizing again:
Public viewpoints in advance are valuable; reviewing afterwards is only to validate logic, not to show off results.
2. Today's Fundamental Analysis
Recently, the situation in Iran has intensified again, driving up international oil prices, and the market is beginning to worry that rising energy prices may push US inflation levels up again. Against this backdrop, US Treasury yields have continued to rise, especially the 2-year Treasury yield reaching a cyclical high, reflecting that the market is repricing the future path of interest rates.
Furthermore, according to the latest data from CME, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has increased to 51.6%, while the probability of a 50 basis point hike is about 19.9%, indicating that market expectations for further tightening of monetary policy have notably increased.
Additionally, inflows for the spot BTC ETF have also begun to cool down. Data shows a net inflow of approximately $90.4 million on July 10, significantly weakened compared to previous inflows of several hundred million dollars, indicating a decrease in the momentum of institutional incremental funds.
In summary, the market currently faces three bearish factors:
Geopolitical risks driving up inflation expectations; market rate hike expectations continuing to heat up; and ETF inflows significantly slowing.
Therefore, Jiangfeng believes the current macro environment remains bearish, with a short-term preference for waiting for rebounding opportunities to seek short positions rather than blindly chasing after fluctuations.
3. BTC Market Analysis
From the chart perspective, BTC has cooled down after a short-term drop, and market sentiment has somewhat declined.
Although prices have shown some adjustment, the sustainability of the rebound is still worth observing before macro expectations improve.
Currently, it is essential to focus on whether the pressure zone around $64600 can be effectively broken; the EMA 55-day moving average on the daily level is suppressed near $65600, short-term resistance is around $63600, as well as previous highs near $64600 and the 261.8 extension line near $65300; if the rebound gets blocked at these positions, short positions can be staged!
My viewpoint remains unchanged: the direction is bearish, and rebounds should be treated as opportunities to short!
ETH basically synchronized, no detailed analysis will be written, please see the subsequent specific strategy.
Today's Trading Strategy
BTC:
Aggressive: Participate in short positions around $63666～$64600, stop loss: $65700, first target around $62600, second target $61800, third target around $60400～$59600!
Conservative: Participate in short positions around $65300～$65800, stop loss: $67600, first target: $63600, second target: $62600～$61800, third target: around $60400～$59600! For those afraid of missing out, it is recommended to enter a small position upfront!
ETH:
Short positions at rebounds of $1810～$1830～$1850～$1880, stop loss $1920, first target: $1750～$1680, second target $1640, third target: around $1530.
Focus on the performance of the upper pressure levels; do not recommend shorting at the current position, and be cautious of wide stop losses. It is advised to lower position sizes and participate in light trades.
If subsequent inflation data shows cooling, ETF funds start to flow in again, or if geopolitical tensions ease, market expectations may change rapidly. Additionally, tomorrow's CPI data release will also impact market sentiment. Therefore, strict control of position sizes and proper stop loss management are necessary.
The above content only represents personal market analysis and trading thought sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.
The market trades on expectations, not results. Fundamentals determine direction, while technicals assist in entry points. In each trade, we merely find key positions, bring along controllable defenses to gamble a bit. If correct, we carry forward with trailing stop losses; if incorrect, we decisively exit!
"Jiangfeng Trading Diary" Issue 1, we continue tomorrow!
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