Core trading line for July 2026: Global outline: The market bids farewell to the central bank's backstop stability and enters a high-volatility, strong differentiation market characterized by high stickiness inflation, high policy uncertainty, continuous geopolitical repricing, and fragile trading structures. The pricing core shifts from speculation on expectations to focusing on risk premiums, performance delivery, and preventing tail-end crashes. 1. Reconstructing Federal Reserve pricing (core dominance) AI capital expenditure generates long-term rigid inflation, Federal Reserve minutes lean hawkish, weakening forward guidance, withdrawing market pricing anchors. Expectation gap: The market closely focuses on single interest rate changes, ignoring the rise in policy uncertainty premiums. Market conditions: High interest rates maintained for a long time, high valuation growth continues to be under pressure, overall market volatility ↑. 2. Middle East geopolitical inflation upgrade The U.S.-Iran conflict spreads across the region, with a near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, risks escalating from oil price pulses to disruptions in global shipping, logistics, and insurance systems. Expectation gap: The market underestimates the damaged role of regional trade intermediaries, leading to persistent import inflation. Market conditions: Rigid inflation expectations difficult to reduce, safe-haven assets' bottoms rise, risk assets remain under pressure. 3. U.S. political and fiscal disturbances Core congressional absences lead to intensified congressional games, clogging of defense, sanction, and fiscal agendas, and declining implementation efficiency. Expectation gap: The market overlooks the impact of political uncertainty on long-end interest rate pricing disturbances. Market conditions: U.S. Treasury volatility amplifies, stock market valuations contract, dollar safe-haven characteristics strengthen temporarily. 4. Long-term consumption of the Russia-Ukraine war The war shifts from territorial disputes to ongoing consumption of Russian energy infrastructure in the rear, with soaring stabilization costs and prolonged conflict. Expectation gap: The market has geopolitical fatigue, underestimating European security premiums and risks of declining energy supply elasticity. Market conditions: Increased energy volatility, global risk appetite hard to repair, extreme differentiation of European assets. 5. Global trading structure peaks AI growth, global carry trades extremely crowded, low volatility market is a fragile illusion of capital clustering. Expectation gap: The market mistakenly regards crowded stability as a risk-free bonus, hiding concentrated crash risks. Market conditions: Theme growth continues to retreat, volatility is easier to rise than to fall, high-beta assets fluctuate chaotically.

Conclusions on three major assets: Dollar: High interest rates + safe-haven demand + carry trade spreads support it, the range is relatively strong, high volatility resistant to decline, no unilateral weakness.

Gold: Short-term suppressed by interest rates and the dollar, medium to long term benefits from uncertainty and geopolitical risks, short weak long strong, optimal defensive characteristics.

Cryptocurrency: Pure high-beta liquid assets, no sustained trend, only short-term impulses, normalization of dramatic price swings, extremely high difficulty in speculation.

In one ultimate sentence: The market enters a premium uncertainty phase, abandon themes, guard certainties, and prevent volatility crashes.

I believe that the current market needs to continue to retest and wash out. Combined with continuously fermenting negative news. The current main line is to short at highs.
Technical outlook:

The chart above shows the ETH 4-hour level trend: From a market perspective, a double top structure is currently forming. The technical perspective attempts to break through but is ruthlessly suppressed by uncontrollable news. It has directly covered the previous gains. The market needs to further consume negative factors and emotions. All the market pump this morning was mainly for the main force to raise prices for unloading, though reluctantly. But we also need to avoid the occurrence of a black swan.

Specific operational advice for ETH: 4-hour close with a bearish candle. The first retest target is the 1775-1750 range. The second retest target is the 1720-1700 range. There is a high probability of a spike that breaks below 1700 before there is an opportunity for a rebound. If the continuous decline persists, the market may go below 1500 points. It will again be a wailing crowd. It is advised to boldly position short orders in the 1800-1820 range. The stop-loss position is set at 1870.

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