After the weekly closing, I received many private messages from member friends asking if we can go long or short now? Will it rise? Has it rebounded to the top? Referring to the closing weekly chart of this week, I reviewed the historical patterns of the second wave and fourth wave rebound highs, combined with Fibonacci retracement, let's take a look at the current market together.

Using the historical high point of 126,800 and the low point of 15,600 to draw the complete retracement range, the previous second wave rebound high point was precisely at the 0.236 division level, while the fourth wave rebound high point corresponded to the 0.618 division level. So, will this rebound that started from 58,000 push up to around 72,000, which is the midpoint of the 0.5 division line?

First, let's talk about the Fibonacci calculation on a large scale: from the high point of 126,000 to the low point of 15,500, drawing the retracement line, the 0.5 midpoint pressure point just happens to fall at 70,800, coinciding highly with the anticipated height of 72,000. In wave trading logic, 0.5 is considered a secondary gravitational point. Although it does not have the same strength as the 0.618 golden ratio, it serves as a psychological axis of price in the whole downtrend, possessing strong selling pressure. Therefore, the target of 72,000 is not just a guess; it is supported by technical indicators.

However, it is necessary to rationally distinguish here: even if 70,800 is a key pressure level, there are currently no market signals proving that this will be the top of the current rebound; it is too early to draw a conclusion now.

First, the overall on-chain funds appear weak. Whether looking at the net inflow data of funds from major spot ETFs or the changes in positions of long-term holders, we can see that funds are continuously flowing out. Miners and long-term coin holders have not collectively turned bullish; the market essence is still in the latter half of the bear market, far from the confirmation point for the start of a bull market.

Second, at the macro level, there is a lack of upward driving forces. The Federal Reserve still retains the possibility of interest rate hikes, and the tightening liquidity environment has not changed; speculative hot money has long withdrawn from the crypto market, previously clustering in gold, and now flooding into semiconductors and AI tracks, with no incremental funds propping up BTC.

Third, there is layered resistance nearby. The three thresholds of 66,000, 67,500, and 70,000 are stacked, with the first short-term hurdle being the range of 65,000-66,000. If it attempts to surge here but fails to increase volume, it will directly face a deep correction. Moreover, the area around 70,800 is a critical transition zone from historical support to resistance; breaking through at once is extremely difficult, so it can only be viewed as a medium-term observation target.

In summary, it's not very meaningful to get stuck on whether 70,800 will become the rebound endpoint. The key focus should be on the near-term resistance range of 65,000-67,000, waiting for the market to give a clear answer: only if we see a solid bullish line with increased volume stabilizing above, should we then calculate the possibility of reaching 70,800; if it gets pressured back in the 65-66K range, then the medium-term should look at corrective recovery, and the target above 70,000 does not need to be considered for now.

In trading, it is crucial to avoid prematurely predicting tops and bottoms. It is far more reliable to wait until the market provides solid signals before making plans, rather than relying on subjective speculation.

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The market review does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and contract trading carries very high risks; please manage your positions reasonably.

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