The data from the U.S. in June has been fully released, and the cryptocurrency market is cooling down again. Even with the poor employment data previously, this meeting's minutes still did not choose to ease and implement interest rate cuts. Internally, there is no consensus on the means to control interest rates, which has led to repeated strangulation of the market. Coupled with the recent outflow of micro-strategy data, any significant rebound in Bitcoin will prompt large capital sell-offs. The anticipated benefits from rate cuts have almost been depleted, and the market is likely to fall back into a bearish phase. Do you all feel that the survival pressure in the crypto space has increased exponentially? Do we really still have confidence in a future bull market? Without further ado, consider why even the opinions within the Federal Reserve cannot be unified? Previously, Waller had already candidly stated that the 2% inflation target expectation would not change, almost laying the groundwork for this year's interest rate hikes. So will there be rate hikes or cuts this year?

This requires everyone to understand the rules of the financial market. When combined with the reality, you might have some feelings about polarization. In the domestic market, housing and major commodity prices continue to decline, while the cost of living is increasing. Facing these changes, it’s hard to understand whether cash is depreciating or appreciating. My understanding is that the flow of wealth is changing, which is also a product of driving domestic demand. The underlying logic is very simple: insufficient income expectations naturally lead to reduced purchases of major items, resulting in inadequate market consumption and downward pressure on market prices. Hence, this gap needs to be filled by another market, making essential demands more valuable. The current financial market is similar, with essential demands appreciating while concepts decline. The Metaverse, which MATE has painstakingly promoted for many years, transitioned to AI, and only now, with selling computing power, has started to become profitable; this already indicates a problem.

From this perspective, the most challenging aspect of investing in the cryptocurrency space is valuation. It does not belong to essential demands or concepts; it is a product that genuinely tests the determination of the high-level decisions. When rice drops to 50 cents, someone will buy it; when gold rises to 2K, someone will sell it. The valuation of a company's stock price would have profits and scale as a reference, whereas Bitcoin's rise has no reference metrics in reality. As stablecoins are increasingly accepted by more people, Bitcoin's practical value is gradually being diminished, and its computational power is being heavily questioned—it is not suitable for actual applications. There’s no need for wild speculation; Bitcoin's collectible properties remain hot. With subsequent optimization by platforms and teams, computational capabilities will undergo innovation and transformation, and the short-term drawbacks do not indicate major problems. The military-level impacts will gradually fade, and if these issues can be resolved before rate cuts, the market will return to the right track.

In summary, through recent fluctuations and trends over the past two months, you will notice that capital hesitates to create new lows or new highs in the short term. This hesitation is not unique to the crypto space but rather is due to the ambiguity of high-level definitions—wanting to support the financial boom yet unable to control inflation. The back-and-forth between rate cuts and hikes causes the current trends to be unclear. I personally believe that there will be at least one rate cut this year, so I firmly think that there will still be time for a bullish impact in the market; it might be delayed but will definitely come. Spot users can consider entering around 60,000; do not wait for new lows; unclear trends will only appear this year. As tricky events are gradually resolved, we will only welcome a bullish rebound. Also, do not fall for the so-called financial crisis; for the crypto space, this is not a downside; the financial crisis could also be a form of redemption for it. Essentially, the crypto space has the capacity to withstand inflation; it depends on how capital chooses. For contract users, as long as they cannot reach the 64,000 mark, it is an opportunity to short, and the outlook remains bearish in the short term.

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