Yesterday, the market continued the persistent forced rise, with bulls almost pushing up all day. Today, during the alternating phase of the Asian and American markets, the market suddenly plummeted, but then quickly recovered the drop with the daily line switch, indicating that the bulls are still striving to maintain the upward momentum, hoping to continue replicating yesterday's "high position consolidation, slow forced rise" trend.
However, compared to yesterday, the market environment has changed somewhat today.
Currently, the 2-hour level adjustment is not yet complete, and the technical aspect does not support a continued long-term divergence rise. In other words, if today continues to rely on forced rise to push up, the difficulty will be significantly higher than yesterday, and further market advancement will require more capital support.
In other words, today offers more opportunities for bears than yesterday.
The biggest characteristic of the current market has still not changed—**as long as it can force a rise, continue to slowly grind upwards; once it cannot force it, a rapid plunge can easily occur.** This "slow rise, rapid drop" rhythm has become the most typical operating feature of the recent market.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
Viewpoint: Oscillating forced rise, structure leaning bullish, cycle leaning bearish, shorting at high positions offers better cost-effectiveness.
The market has currently entered the **"cycle leaning bearish, structure leaning bullish"** tug-of-war phase.
From the technical structure perspective, the 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, and 12-hour intervals have all reached high position areas, and the space for continued short-term upward movement is shrinking, with a continuous accumulation of technical adjustment demand.
Even if a strong forced rise occurs today, it is necessary to be wary of the profit-taking pressure after the weekly close. As the weekly K approaches its conclusion, the willingness of high-position chips to cash out may increase, thus the risk of a rapid correction at the beginning of next week is worth paying attention to.
In addition, this round of 4-hour level divergence has lasted approximately 32 hours, far exceeding the normal market rhythm. This indicates that the current rise relies more on short covering and a low liquidity environment, rather than continuous inflows of new capital. Once the forced rise momentum weakens, the market may quickly turn around.
Therefore, the overall strategy remains:
High-position rebounds, primarily focusing on shorting on highs;
If a rapid drop occurs during the session, one can pay attention to short-term buying opportunities to participate in the daily repair.
In the current oscillating forced rise market, it is not advisable to blindly chase after the rise; instead, wait for confirmation at key positions before acting accordingly.
Support to watch: 63000-63500
Resistance to watch: 64400, 64700, 65000-65500
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This article is originally published by 【Huiying Community】 and represents personal opinions only. Due to information transmission delays, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate with caution.
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