1. Core news on July 12

1. Macroeconomics and the Federal Reserve (Core suppression factors)

1) The market raises the probability of a September Federal Reserve interest rate hike, with U.S. Treasury yields slightly rising, the dollar index strengthening, and high volatility crypto assets under pressure, leading to a short-term capital flight from altcoins;
2) Federal Reserve Chairman Waller will attend a congressional hearing this week, with markets closely watching for inflation and interest rate comments; excessively hawkish remarks could trigger a deep market correction;
3) The FOMC minutes released signals that high rates will be maintained for longer, institutions lowering their expectations for a rate cut within the year, which, in the medium term, suppresses the upward space for coin prices.

2. Industry ETFs and capital flows

1) The BTC spot ETF ended eight consecutive weeks of outflows, with a net inflow of $84.4 million yesterday; short-term institutional buying is noticeably supporting prices around $63,000;
2) The inflow of the ETH spot ETF slowed, with capital preferring BTC for safety; the SOL spot ETF experienced slight outflows, and high Beta coins faced reduced positions;
3) In the derivatives market yesterday, BTC shorts concentrated in a liquidated amount of $165 million, with short-term short pressure released, leading to a balanced consolidation today.

3. Geopolitics and regulations

1) The Middle East situation remains tense, with oil and the dollar gaining as safe havens, suppressing overall preferences for risk assets;
2) The EU MiCAR regulations are fully implemented, raising the entry thresholds for compliant exchanges, which is beneficial for industry standardization in the long term, though there are no stimulating market activities in the short term;
3) The U.S. CLARITY crypto bill is awaiting congressional vote, and short-term regulatory uncertainties suppress bullish confidence.

4. Market sentiment & data

• Cryptocurrency fear and greed index at 17, maintaining an extreme fear zone, with the recent rebound being purely a technical correction, not a trend reversal;

• Total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stands at $2.196 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume shrinking by 40%, indicating a sluggish market;

• Market differentiation: BTC shows slight resistance to declines, ETH gains slightly, while SOL leads the mainstream declines, with altcoins universally falling.

2. Overall market overview

The current market is in a weak consolidation repair following a significant drop, with tightening liquidity expectations suppressing the rebound height, and trading volume continuing to shrink. The main strategy today is high selling and low buying within range, with no chasing on price increases allowed.
Current BTC price: $64,030; Current ETH price: $1,804; Current SOL price: $76.04.

3. BTC Bitcoin | Trading strategy

Technical aspect
The 4-hour chart maintains short-term moving average support, with the 50-day moving average at $65,300 forming strong resistance; the daily chart is still in a medium-term descending channel, with limited room for rebound, mainly focusing on intraday range fluctuations.

Key support/resistance
• Strong resistance for the day: 64,700-65,300 (heavy selling area)
• First resistance for the day: 64,200-64,500
• First support for the day: 63,600-63,800
• Strong support for the day: 63,100 (7-day moving average defense line), 61,700 (bull-bear lifeline)

1. Short-term short position (rebound under pressure)
Entry range: 64,400-64,800
Stop loss: above 65,400
Take profit target: 63,800 → 63,200

2. Short-term long position (buying on dips)
Entry range: 63,100-63,600; wait for stabilization to enter
Stop loss: below 62,800
Take profit target: 64,200 → 64,600

3. Operation idea: If 63,100 is not broken, no deep correction is anticipated; the price must stabilize above 65,300 to open up rebound space; otherwise, it will remain in a consolidation phase.

4. ETH Ethereum | Trading strategy

Technical aspect
The trend is weaker than BTC, with long-term pressure from the 200-day moving average; on-chain Gas consumption is declining, with Layer 2 diverting trading volume, and a lack of independent positive factors in the short term, correlated with market fluctuations.

Key support/resistance
• Strong resistance for the day: 1,830-1,850
• First resistance for the day: 1,810-1,820
• First support for the day: 1,780-1,790
• Strong support for the day: 1,730, 1,680 (medium-term lifeline)

1. Short-term short position
Entry range: 1,815-1,840; layout under pressure
Stop loss: above 1,875
Take profit target: 1,785 → 1,740

2. Short-term long position
Entry range: 1,775-1,790; wait for stabilization to buy
Stop loss: below 1,760
Take profit target: 1,810 → 1,830

5. SOL Solana | Trading strategy

Technical aspect
High Beta coin, with continued capital reduction today, down 1.46% in the last 24 hours; short-term moving averages are turning down, with weak rebounds and heavy selling pressure above, requiring strict control of positions due to high volatility.

Key support/resistance
• Strong resistance for the day: 79.5-81
• First resistance for the day: 77.8-78.5
• First support for the day: 75.5-76
• Strong support for the day: 73, 70 (medium-term defense level)

1. Short-term short position (priority strategy)
Entry range: 77.8-78.8; short on rebound under pressure
Stop loss: above 81
Take profit target: 76 → 74

2. Short-term long position (small position speculation)
Entry range: 75.2-76; buy a small amount on stabilization
Stop loss: below 74
Take profit target: 77.5 → 78.6

6. General trading risk control reminders

1. The current market sentiment is extremely fearful, with frequent spike-like movements; all positions must have stop losses, and heavy leveraged trading is prohibited;
2. SOL volatility is much greater than BTC/ETH; positions should not exceed 10% of total funds, and positions for mainstream BTC/ETH should not exceed 20%;
3. Evening Federal Reserve-related news could easily break the range; do not hold positions against the trend after breakdown; exit in a timely manner and observe
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