I actually don't really want to talk about $CRCL anymore, I don't have a position, and I'm not going long or short, I'm just reporting the news and then sharing my views.

I personally judge that the probability of contract renewal failure is very low. From the contract design perspective, Circle and Coinbase do not even need to sign a new agreement in August to continue their cooperation.

The cooperative agreement signed on August 18, 2023, has an initial term of three years, expiring on August 18, 2026. However, the contract sets the formal judgment node 90 days before expiration, which means May 20, 2026, has already passed nearly two months ago.

If both parties do not negotiate a new modification plan before this date, while Circle and Coinbase both fulfill the ongoing obligations stipulated in the agreement, the contract will automatically renew for three years under the original terms. Currently, there is no public disclosure of either party accusing the other of breach of contract, nor is there a termination notice.

Additionally, I looked into the matter of the bank license carefully; it basically amounts to custody, but custody doesn’t earn much money. Just look at Coinbase's custody for cryptocurrency ETFs to understand that, USDC can save money for sure, but it still can't solve the payment issue, or put another way, it still cannot solve the problem of profitability which relies solely on U.S. Treasury bond yield.

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