Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.19 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.5%, or $1.28 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $311.9 billion, increasing by 0.17% in the last 7 days, with USDT holding a 59.03% share.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: BTC up 3.7% in 7 days, ETH up 3.45% in 7 days, SOL down 2.4% in 7 days, ARB up 19.57% in 7 days, LIT up 19.15% in 7 days.
Market Forecast (July 13 - July 19):
The RSI index is at 50.22 (neutral, up from last week), the Fear and Greed Index is at 22 (fear), and the Altseason Index is at 50 (neutral).
BTC: $61,000 - $67,000
ETH: $1,700 - $1,850
SOL: $75 - $90
The market is at a crossroads in direction selection for next week, with the CPI data on July 14 and the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act in the Senate being two core variables. Until uncertainties are resolved, the market will likely maintain range-bound fluctuations.
Risk Warning:
Risk of failure in the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act (regulatory policy)
The vote for the entire chamber is expected to be submitted during the week of July 13, but three major disagreements remain unresolved; a minimum of 60 votes is needed to break the obstruction. If it is not passed before the recess on August 7, the legislative path for 2026 may be "substantially interrupted", which will severely impact market confidence.
Risk of rising interest rate expectations triggered by U.S. CPI data (macro liquidity)
If the CPI announced on July 14 exceeds expectations, it will strengthen the Federal Reserve's expectation of raising interest rates in September (currently 65% probability), directly repressing risk assets. After the release of the minutes, Bitcoin has already immediately dropped by 2.7%, and any hawkish signals could trigger a new round of selling.
Risk of chain reaction from long position liquidations (market structure)
Currently, the open long leverage of BTC, ETH, SOL, and other contracts dominates, and the rebound lacks real buying support. Once prices break key levels (such as BTC $61,000, SOL $80), it could trigger chain liquidations, forming a "drop → liquidation → further drop" vicious cycle.
Understanding Now
The EU MiCA fully implemented, USDT exits the European market
After the transition period for MiCA ended on July 1, its impact continued to ferment this week. Currently, only 280 cryptocurrency asset service providers have been authorized, and only 21 issuers have been allowed to issue e-money tokens pegged to a single fiat currency. Due to failure to apply for compliance authorization, USDT, valued at $186 billion, has been required to delist from EU-regulated exchanges, with market share being taken over by compliance stablecoins like USDC.
Progress of the U.S. CLARITY Act stalled
The highly anticipated “2026 CLARITY Act” failed to make progress before the target date of July 4. Key disagreements such as the Democrats' "code of conduct clause" and "developer exemption" remain unresolved. As the recess period approaches on August 7, its probability of passing in 2026 has fallen to 40%-48% in the prediction market Polymarket.
Sony Bank obtains U.S. OCC trust charter, laying out plans for stablecoins
Sony Bank of Japan has received conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank in the U.S. It plans to fully launch the issuance and settlement of U.S. dollar stablecoins by 2027, marking a shift of traditional giants from "buyers" to "issuers".
Bitcoin ETF ends 10-day outflow, market sentiment warms up
On July 6, the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF ended a continuous 10-day outflow, achieving a net inflow of approximately $265.7 million, with BlackRock IBIT contributing $209.4 million. On the same day, the combined net inflow of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Spot ETFs was approximately $295 million.
Fed minutes show "hawkish" divergences, market under pressure
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting released on July 8 showed a 9 to 9 tie among decision-makers on whether to raise interest rates further. After the release of the minutes, Bitcoin's price fell by 2.7%, indicating market concerns over interest rate risks.
XRP surpasses USDC in market value, rising to fifth
XRP's price rose 5.3% to $1.18 early this week, with a market value of approximately $73 billion, surpassing USDC to become the fifth largest cryptocurrency globally.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) significantly reduces Bitcoin holdings
As the largest corporate holder, Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoins between June 29 and July 5, cashing out approximately $216 million. This move was primarily to fulfill debt obligations, representing about 0.4% of its total holdings and its first large-scale reduction since 2022.
SWIFT blockchain ledger launched, 17 banks pilot
On July 9, SWIFT announced its blockchain ledger was successfully implemented. Seventeen major banks from six continents will conduct 24/7 cross-border payment pilots based on tokenized deposits.
BONK DAO suffers approximately $20 million governance attack
On July 6, BONK DAO confirmed it was attacked by a "malicious governance proposal". The attacker spent about $4.4 million to purchase BONK tokens to gain voting rights and passed a proposal to transfer approximately $20 million worth of BONK from the DAO treasury. The price of BONK immediately dropped by 7%-10%.
Bitcoin BIP-110 proposal sparks community controversy
On July 9, the number of "signal blocks" supporting BIP-110 rose to 17, triggering community alarm. The proposal aims to limit the storage of non-financial data (like images) within blocks through a soft fork. Supporters believe it can reduce "spam," while critics warn it may lead to chain-split risks.
Macroeconomics
On July 9, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4 were 215,000, expected 218,000, with the previous value revised from 215,000 to 217,000.
On July 10, according to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is currently reported at 75.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 24.4%.
Foreseeing the Future
Industry Conferences
WebX 2026 will be held from July 13 to 14, 2026, in Tokyo, Japan.
Canada Blockchain Week 2026 will be held from July 20 to 26, 2026, in Toronto, Canada.
Bitcoin Hong Kong will be held from August 27 to 28, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
Important Events
The public consultation period for the proposed rules regarding licensing standards for stablecoin issuers by the U.S. National Credit Union Administration will end on July 17.
On July 14 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for June.
On July 14 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the adjusted CPI month-on-month for June.
On July 16 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11 (in ten thousands).
Project Progress
The deadline for the UK Financial Conduct Authority's consultation on allowing investment funds to allocate up to 10% of assets to crypto ETNs is July 13.
Strategy's preferred stock STRC will change to a semi-monthly dividend mechanism, with the first semi-monthly dividend payment date on July 15, 2026.
The on-chain derivatives protocol Satori will gradually cease operations, with withdrawal and position closing windows to close by July 17.
The Cyberspace Administration of China is publicly soliciting opinions on regulations to promote the interoperability of distributed digital identities, with feedback due by July 18.
Token Unlocks
io.net (IO) will unlock 13.29 million tokens on July 11, valued at approximately $2.26 million, accounting for 3.61% of circulating supply.
Optimism (OP) will unlock 4.47 million tokens on July 11, valued at approximately $473,000, accounting for 0.21% of circulating supply.
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on July 12, valued at approximately $7.17 million, accounting for 0.66% of circulating supply.
Pump.fun (PUMP) will unlock 8.25 billion tokens on July 12, valued at approximately $125 million, accounting for 29.39% of circulating supply.
ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 16.7 million tokens on July 17, valued at approximately $1.84 million, accounting for 2.65% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research serves as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to turning professional analysis into your practical weapon. We analyze market patterns for you through "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Research Reports"; utilizing our exclusive section "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we lock in potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers connect with you through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and forecasting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly advise investors to conduct investments based on fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure fund safety.
Website: https://www.hotcoin.com/r/Hotcoinresearch
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