1: On Thursday, as sources indicated that Pakistan is still mediating and that the US-Iran negotiation window may reopen, the dollar index fell from around 101, ultimately closing down 0.12% at 100.94; the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury closed at 4.558%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, closed at 4.189%.
2: Trump stated that Iran wants to reach an agreement, and sources reported that Iran currently has no intention of dragging Israel into the conflict, easing concerns about the expansion of war driving up inflation and boosting interest rates. Spot gold fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $4138 per ounce, ultimately closing up 1.14% at $4123.82 per ounce; spot silver briefly stood above $60, ultimately closing up 2.85% at $59.96 per ounce.
3: Because traders expect that the scale of the US-Iran conflict will be limited, concerns about repeated attacks on energy infrastructure have eased, leading to a decline in international oil prices. WTI crude oil ultimately closed down 3.82% at $71.69 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed down 4.1% at $76.02 per barrel.
4:U.S. stocks rose with the Dow closing up 0.26%, the S&P 500 index up 0.8%, and the Nasdaq up 1.3%. Micron Technology (MU.O) rose 4.5%
5: Middle East situation—
①Israeli media: Sources say Iran currently has no intention of dragging Israel into the conflict.
② Iran stated that if the U.S. attacks again, it will expand the scope of its response.
③ U.S. officials revealed that the current escalation may last a day or two, a week, or a month, depending on whether merchant ships continue to be attacked.
④ Sources: Pakistan is still mediating, and the US-Iran negotiation window may reopen.
⑤ U.S. officials stated that technical negotiations with Iran are still ongoing, and the U.S. remains committed to seeking solutions.
News: Macro overall situation in July 2026: The market has entered a strong differentiated trend of sticky inflation + continuation of high-interest rates + dual geopolitical friction + growth valuation re-pricing, with no unilateral trends; core expectations focus on: the market still attributes inflation to oil prices and short-term geopolitical disturbances, but the Federal Reserve has listed AI capital expenditures as a core long-term source of inflation. 1. Core policies (the largest turning point of this round) FOMC minutes released clear hawkish divisions: some officials believed rate hikes should have occurred in June. This round of inflation is no longer a one-time external shock but rather persistent capital goods inflation driven by the AI computing infrastructure craze, continuously consuming electricity, industrial metals, and high-end labor, resulting in self-reinforcing supply constraints. Market misconception: believing the Federal Reserve is merely hawkish verbally and mainly waiting and observing; real logic: economic resilience + AI rigid inflation = high interest rates are difficult to lower, pausing does not mean easing, and there is long-term pressure from growth valuation discounting. 2. Geopolitical core (secondary reinforcement of inflation) The US-Iran ceasefire has broken, and the risk in Hormuz has escalated from oil price shocks to inflation premiums in shipping, with freight, insurance, and detour costs rising, extending input inflation stickiness; Trump's reversal of stance, supporting deeper strikes in Ukraine, reignites Eastern European geopolitical risks, double-line geopolitical repression suppressing risk appetite, propping up tail risks of inflation. 3. Industrial core (risk appetite shows cracks at the top) AI market has completed the logic switch: from speculative stories and booms to core financing costs, verified capital returns, and examining real performance. South Korean chip leverage is extremely crowded, indices are bearish, and multiple positive factors for SpaceX still fell below issue price, proving that crowded trading of overvalued growth is beginning to loosen, with increased踩踏 risk for thematic assets lacking fundamental realization.
Therefore, I believe that when the AI bubble continues to ferment, the market will begin to extract large amounts of capital. Entering some undervalued growth tracks. For example, gold and cryptocurrencies. Therefore, I believe that in the short term, the gold and crypto markets will welcome a wave of impulsive rebound. But remember, it is not a unilateral bull market. The overall market still leans towards oscillation.
On the technical side:
The chart shows the ETH 15-minute level: the market has gone through earlier washing and has completely cleared the floating chips above. Currently, the market has started to rise in volume. Continuing to break upwards. The price is likely to break the previous high of 1833.
Specific trading suggestions for ETH: go long directly at 1790. Take profit near 1840.
Trading is not just theoretical talk; it is about continuous learning and exploration. Gaining results through practice. It is not for the sake of trading alone, but with a goal in mind, returning with results. This is the truth of why we enter this market!
The above chart shows the ETH 15-minute level: the market has gone through earlier washing and has completely cleared the floating chips above. Currently, the market has started to rise in volume. Continuing to break upwards. The price is likely to break the previous high of 1833.
Specific trading suggestions for ETH: go long directly at 1790. Take profit near 1840.
Trading is not just theoretical talk; it is about continuous learning and exploration. Gaining results through practice. It is not for the sake of trading alone, but with a goal in mind, returning with results. This is the truth of why we enter this market!
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