First, let me share a few words about the recent market sentiment. HYPE, SOL, and other targets mentioned in the past two weeks are closely tied to the overall market trend; they cannot be considered independent tokens. Their movements are more indicative of the main force's rhythm. If you want to play for high yields or seek stability, it all depends on your own risk preference. US stocks have rebounded a bit, but it feels insufficient, not solid enough. Initial public offerings in Hong Kong have cooled down, and overall market liquidity is still tightening.

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Yesterday, when the news broke from Trump's side, the Bitcoin price also dropped. To be honest, Bitcoin's bottom has not yet been reached, so don’t rush to buy the dip.

At this point, I want to discuss a very realistic topic: why do some people hold onto their positions until they are liquidated? People always say it's human greed, but that’s not necessarily the case. Often, it’s not about wanting to earn a few more points; it's that there’s no turning back. After suffering losses seven or eight times in a row, reasonable profits are no longer a consideration, and all one can think about is making back what they lost, or they won’t be able to settle next month’s bills. So don’t be stubborn with yourself; when you open a position, set your stop loss; and if it hits, exit. The current market is fluctuating back and forth, and there are plenty of opportunities; there's no need to box yourself into a corner.

ETF Capital Shift: The Core Signals to Watch in the Second Half

Returning to the market itself, one noteworthy change these past couple of days is that ETF capital has finally shifted from continuous outflow to positive inflow. On July 6, major spot crypto ETFs recorded net inflows across the board: BTC saw inflows of $265.69 million in a single day, ETH saw $20.66 million, and SOL had $8.36 million. This is the strongest single-day inflow data since early June. Friends who went through May and June know how difficult those months were for BTC ETFs, with continuous outflows leading to a cumulative net outflow of about $5.4 billion in the first half of the year. Although geopolitical news related to Trump is still affecting the market, the impact of war-themed headlines is gradually weakening. The direction of ETF capital flows remains the clearest indicator of real market liquidity.

The total amount of Bitcoin currently held by spot ETFs accounts for about 5.7% to 6% of the circulating supply. An inflow of several hundred million dollars in a single day means thousands of BTC are locked by institutions and will no longer circulate in the spot market. This quantifiable supply contraction effect has never been seen in the Bitcoin market before 2024. If July can maintain this inflow momentum, Bitcoin ETFs could again become the core driving force for price support in the second half of 2026. Of course, if you want to make short-term gains from this, you will need to keep an eye on the market, which can be exhausting, so it's more suitable for those with ample time.

The current BTC price is oscillating around $62,800, situated right at the lower support edge of the previous ETF outflow cycle.

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Moving forward, everyone should pay attention to three key dimensions: On the data front, the transition of ETFs from continuous outflow to large daily net inflows, particularly BlackRock's movements, indicates that the logic of real demand and supply contraction is taking shape; On the event front, after MSTR's news about selling Bitcoin, the market's interpretation was neutral or slightly positive, indicating that it was not forced selling and the selling pressure was quickly absorbed; On the structural front, the price trend shows signs of bottoming out, and after a round of liquidity cleansing, there may be upward potential. The overall sentiment has improved significantly from the fragile state at the end of June, but crucial support levels like around $61,000 must be maintained, and effective volume release is also an important signal; a rebound without volume won't last long.

By the way, our platform launched a new smart money feature yesterday, so friends used to tracking whale activities can check it out without having to switch to other data websites. You can see it directly locally, which is much more convenient. Our indicators have always been quite accurate, so please feel free to explore.

On-Chain Hotspots Warming Up: From Celebrity Memes to Robinhood Chain

The altcoin market has shown some signs of life in the past two weeks, with on-chain capital gradually becoming active and new hotspots emerging one after another. The first to heat up was the narrative of celebrity meme coins. The $ANSEM token on Solana is a tribute coin to the well-known KOL Ansem, igniting the entire celebrity coin play. Shortly after, coins like CZ and TCC also emerged on BSC, dubbed the "BSC version of ANSEM;" CZ even liked related tweets, directly igniting the sentiment. The wealth-generating effect of these coins is indeed exaggerated; early investors could see returns of nearly 500 times, a typical meme coin "get rich overnight" myth. However, the tide recedes quickly; they have already dropped 50% to 60% from their peak and the market capitalization has dramatically shrunk, leaving those who bought in high trapped at the summit.

In the short term, it still holds opportunities for high volatility. If the original creators interact, or the community stirs up hotspots, or major players take action, it may trigger a rebound since meme coins are essentially a game of attention. However, in the broader direction, it's likely to remain in a turbulent downward trend without sustained catalysts; after profit-taking, it's challenging to maintain valuation. Furthermore, it’s essential to recognize that ANSEM had exchanges taking it on towards the end of the last bull market, whereas CZ and TCC are highly unlikely to do so. Essentially, there’s compliance risk; CZ cannot publicly acknowledge such coins, and any open statements would serve as a clear signal of cooling off. Frankly, this amount of on-chain funding means nothing to major exchanges. Right now, the competition in the public chain track is fierce: Solana is vying with Hype for on-chain business, Monad wants to create an EVM version of Solana, and new chains like Robinhood are focused on RWA asset issuance, all vying for market share. Meme capital comes quickly but leaves just as fast; don't get too carried away when participating.

Recently, the spotlight has been on Robinhood Chain, which I have been monitoring since June. This wave completely broke out through memes. Just one leading token has a trading volume of $100 million, which is exceptionally high. The most outlandish $CASHCAT whipped its market cap up to over $200 million.

Many people may not know its backstory: Robinhood was almost called Cash Cat early on, and the founder nearly used this name before eventually changing it to Robinhood. The community dug up this old history and turned it into an on-chain native cat coin. It's also interesting to note that Robinhood originally launched its own L2 public chain focusing on RWA and DeFi, but unexpectedly the meme ecosystem exploded first. Now Aster has launched related contracts, although major exchanges have yet to list it, leaving room for speculation. Personally, I plan to consider shorting after a secondary rally; there's no rush for now. The token that just launched yesterday was created using the founder's old YouTube profile picture, a $200 million meme. If you missed the first round, don't chase it high; it's safer to wait for better opportunities.

Friends intending to get involved in on-chain activities can look for corresponding tutorials to study.

Currently, there is still momentum for Robinhood Chain. It’s fine to play small positions, but don't go heavy; try risking smaller caps for luck. The main players on this chain are foreigners, so if you want to gather insights, spending some time on Twitter could be very rewarding.

Aster Practical Guide: Benefit Upgrades, Point Systems, and New User Entry

Lastly, I want to share the latest benefits and features of Aster. Friends who trade frequently can save a lot of costs. First, here’s some good news: previously, the rebate for binding old and new users was 5%, but now it can be upgraded to a 10% cash rebate through a dedicated link. Exclusive link: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2 I have compared data from several competing products, and Aster’s overall figures are still very competitive since it is a platform under the BN ecosystem, ensuring safety. Normal trading can accumulate points, and there’s an airdrop distribution once a month based on trading volume, meaning you can earn extra airdrops outside of trading on the exchange, providing very high cost performance.

Now, trading new coins also grants a 1.2x point bonus, with seasonal points equal to trading volume × 1.2 times the new coin-specific weight, equivalent to transforming ASTER from a token into a "money printer." Coupling with the platform's already low transaction fees, you can earn an extra 20% in points at almost no cost, which is excellent for those looking to pad their future airdrop allocations.

I also organized a complete entry guide for new friends, which can be set up in just a few minutes. Aster is a multi-chain decentralized perpetual contract exchange that supports high leverage and cross-chain operations, with very low transaction fees. You don't need a traditional registration; you can use just a wallet. Prepare wallets that support multi-chain, like MetaMask or WalletConnect, and ensure you have added supported networks like BNB Chain and Ethereum.

Then open the official website, click "Connect Wallet," and select your wallet to complete the authorization. After a successful first connection, you can transfer a small amount of USDT from a centralized exchange to familiarize yourself with the dashboard and try both spot and perpetual trading modes.

New users are advised to start with small amounts and low leverage to slowly familiarize themselves with the interface and rules. The platform's perpetual contract rates are low, and combined with the funding rate mechanism, the actual trading costs are minimal.

Don't forget to claim your benefits; after connecting your wallet, go to the "Promotions" tab to complete tasks like your first trade, and you'll wait for the system to automatically distribute transaction fee refunds or bonuses. Additionally, there’s a very practical activity: now exchanges between USDT and USDC are entirely fee-free, so friends with reallocation needs can utilize this, saving the original 0.1% exchange cost.

Overall, while the market is still finding its bottom, opportunities have remained consistent, from the large trends of ETFs to the smaller opportunities on-chain, each with its own play style. Whether trading mainstream coins or speculating on new hotspots, manage your positions well, keep protective stops, and don’t force yourself into a corner; taking it slow can help you find the market that suits you.

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