This week's BTC market is indeed troublesome, with prices fluctuating between 61,000 and 64,000, currently stuck around 62,000 with no clear direction, leaving many positions uncertain about whether to enter or exit. Today, we will discuss market signals, ETF funding, trading sentiments, and new on-chain opportunities, while also thoroughly explaining Aster's points system and beginner operations, so that whether you are trading contracts or participating in airdrops, you can find the corresponding strategies.

Market Signals: The Characteristics of a Bottom Where Bad News Doesn’t Cause Drops and Point Predictions

First, let's talk about the most intuitive signal from the market. A while ago, when the news of MSTR selling coins was released, Bitcoin did not experience the expected major drop. This "bad news not causing a drop" trend actually hides two layers of meaning: first, the current position is already close to the bottom range, and the selling pressure has been mostly released; second, the market is gradually becoming desensitized to MSTR’s buying and selling actions, no longer being swayed by a single piece of news as before.

As for the subsequent rebound space, the market generally expects a peak around 65,000, with a probability of hitting that point around fifty percent; there is also a possibility of bulls quietly pushing the price to an extreme 68,000, but that probability is only about twenty percent, with 68,000 essentially being the maximum position for this round of rebound.

So don’t rush to shout “the bottom has been reached”; we are not at the point where you can safely buy in blindly. It is likely that we need to oscillate and wash out positions several more times, sifting through bulls and bears a few waves, to wash out the indecisive chips before we can truly embark on a trend. In terms of operations, never position yourself in the middle of a range; either wait to short at a high or buy at a low. No matter how you operate, you must always set a stop-loss. The market is currently bouncing back and forth, with plenty of opportunities, so there’s no need to stubbornly hold a position that could trap you.

Core Fundamentals: The Long-term Impact of ETF Fund Shifts

Compared to short-term price fluctuations, it is more worth关注ing the shift in ETF funding, as this is the core variable affecting mid-to-long term trends.

On July 6, mainstream spot crypto ETFs recorded net inflows across the board, with BTC seeing a net inflow of $265.69 million, ETH $20.66 million, and SOL $8.36 million, marking the strongest single-day fund inflow since early June. Those who experienced May and June know that those two months were particularly difficult for BTC ETFs, with continuous capital outflows, resulting in a cumulative net outflow of approximately $5.4 billion in the first half of the year. Now, news related to geopolitical conflicts is having less and less impact on the market, and the direction of ETF fund flows is the most reflective indicator of real market liquidity.

The total amount of Bitcoin held by current spot ETFs accounts for about 5.7% to 6% of the circulating supply. Daily inflows of a few hundred million dollars mean that thousands of BTC are being locked by institutions, no longer entering circulation in the spot market. This quantifiable supply contraction effect is unprecedented in the Bitcoin market before 2024. As long as there are several days of strong inflows, it will directly reverse short-term market sentiment and restructure the supply-demand structure. If July can maintain this momentum, ETFs will again become the core driving force supporting BTC prices in the second half of 2026.

Another interesting detail is that Strive increased its holdings by 17.76 BTC last week, coincidentally corresponding to the number 1776, riding on the heat of Independence Day, and its total holdings have now reached 19,882 BTC. Although the quantity is not much, the signal significance is very strong; institutional layouts have not actually stopped.

Don't Attribute Positions to "Greed"

After discussing the market, let’s talk about something very practical— the mindset regarding holding positions in contracts.

Many people often say that holding a full position until liquidation is due to human greed. In reality, that is not the case. If you look at those who completely blow up their accounts, very few are unwilling to exit for a few extra points; most of them have no other options. They may be burdened by debt, waiting for this one last chance to turn things around, or they might have lost consecutively seven or eight times, and reasonable returns are no longer in their consideration; all they can think about is recovering all losses in one big move and completely turning the situation around.

Therefore, don’t always battle with your own human nature; developing a habit of setting stop-losses is more important than anything else. Now that we are in this volatile, oscillating market, both bulls and bears have opportunities, and there is really no need to stubbornly hold a position to the point of desperation.

New On-chain Hotspots: From Celebrity Meme Coins to Robinhood Chain

Having discussed the market, let’s take a look at the recent hot on-chain topics; there are always new stories in the circle.

First, the play of celebrity meme coins has become popular again. For example, ANSEM on Solana is a tribute coin launched by the community to honor the well-known crypto KOL Ansem. This blogger, known as the "Son of Solana" and "King of Meme Coins," made his entry at around $1.50 and has sparked interest in meme coins like dogwifhat on social media, holding significant influence in the crypto Twitter space. Following this, celebrity coins like CZ and TCC have also emerged on BSC, all following the narrative set by ANSEM.

The essence of these coins is purely an attention game; whenever the original person has new interactions, community excitement rises, or big holders make movements, it can trigger short-term rebounds; however, due to the lack of sustained catalysts, the overall probability still trends toward oscillation or gradual correction. Historically, celebrity coins have mostly been fleeting, with subsequent liquidity drying up, presenting high risks. They can be fun to play with but should not be taken seriously as a faith.

Recently, even hotter is the Robinhood Chain, which I have been keeping an eye on since June, and it has completely exploded in the last few days, with funds flooding in on-chain, and any target can multiply five times easily; the first leading target's market value directly surged to $130 million.

The standout of this chain is CASHCAT; its core story is quite interesting: Robinhood was almost called Cash Cat in its early days, and the founder almost used this name before changing it to Robinhood. The community unearthed this piece of historical trivia and made it the native cat coin on this chain. From its performance, it is already the first meme coin on Robinhood Chain to break $100 million in market value, with an astonishing 24-hour growth, undoubtedly becoming the leader on the entire chain and driving up others like HOODRAT, KERMIT, and more.

This chain has just been online for a few days, and users, liquidity, and narratives are accumulating rapidly, still in the early dividend stage. A 1U NFT that I casually acquired has now risen to around 60, although I don’t have many positions—just joining the fun. Friends interested in participating can look for corresponding tutorials to research; on-chain operations will involve cross-chain, transfers, sales, and other processes, which have many details. If there are any unclear areas, feel free to ask me. The presence of hotspots is always a good thing; it shows that there is still fresh water in the circle, and new people are coming in.

Aster Practical Operation: Points Airdrop Play and Beginner's Guide

Finally, let's talk in detail about Aster's operations, which can be applied whether in trading or for airdrop hunting.

The platform is currently running a new coin points activity, where trading newly launched coins enjoys a 1.2x points bonus. Seasonal points = trading volume × 1.2 times the new coin's exclusive weight, with newly listed tokens like VANRY, YFI, MANA, IDOL, SLP, TLM all falling within the activity range. Just by trading a single transaction, you can automatically enjoy 1.2 times the points accumulation. Coupled with the platform’s low fee policy, you can almost earn 20% more new season points at zero cost, effectively laying groundwork for subsequent airdrop opportunities.

The operation is quite simple; open the official website: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2, click the connection wallet on the right side to switch the interface to Chinese; then click on “Tokens” in the left menu bar, choose “New Listings,” and you will see all participating assets in the activity. Points will be automatically credited while trading.

Here’s a complete beginner’s tutorial for new friends. Aster is a multi-chain decentralized perpetual contract exchange that supports high-leverage trading and cross-chain operations, with low overall fees. Now during this horizontal period, it is a perfect opportunity to slowly explore derivative plays. It does not require traditional account registration; you can use it just by connecting a wallet, and it can be done in a matter of minutes. First, prepare a multi-chain wallet like MetaMask or WalletConnect, and add supported networks like BNB Chain and Ethereum in advance.

Next, open the official website, click "Connect Wallet," select your wallet, and complete the authorization to connect. After the first successful connection, you can transfer a small amount of USDT from a centralized exchange to familiarize yourself with the dashboard and try operations in spot or perpetual contracts. New users are advised to start with small amounts and low leverage; never start with high leverage right away. Don’t forget to claim the platform benefits; after connecting your wallet, go to the “Promotions” tab and complete beginner tasks like making your first trade to receive trading fee refunds or bonuses.

There is also a very practical daily activity: zero-fee USDT and USDC exchanges. The originally 0.1% exchange fee is fully waived, whether you are converting USDC to USDT for new coins or reversing to stablecoins for risk avoidance, with no losses incurred. Those in need of conversion can use it more.

It is often said that making money from information gaps is effective, yet many times the essence of information gaps isn’t that you don’t know enough but rather that you think you know more than others. Before opening a position, take time to observe the market conditions, browse news, or engage in live discussions; this is far better than blindly jumping into action. Investment in crypto is already risky; let’s all participate rationally and refrain from putting our lives on the line.

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