Yesterday, Bitcoin officially entered the daily adjustment phase. The overall pullback remains within a healthy range and has not damaged the medium to long-term structure. Although the daily line is still at a relatively high level, the adjustment at the 12-hour (half-day line) level has not yet ended, and the short-term still requires time to complete the chip exchange.
It is worth noting that the small cycles below 12 hours have basically adjusted in place and re-entered the bottom area. Yesterday, the daily line showed a clear long lower shadow, which is consistent with the current characteristics of the weekly and monthly lines being in a bottoming phase, indicating that there is still low-level funding support and a strong willingness to defend by the bulls.
However, the external environment remains full of uncertainties. The geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and the US-Iran relations are still fermenting, making the market sentiment susceptible to sudden news, which also provides a catalytic factor for short-term adjustments. Therefore, the short-term market will still be dominated by fluctuations.
From a larger cycle perspective, the logic of the weekly and monthly bottoming has not changed. For medium-term positioning, the truly cost-effective positions are still in the low-level areas.
The strategy maintains the previous viewpoint:
BTC falling to around 60,000 USD, still focus on buying low;
ETH falling below 1,600 USD, also pay attention to low buying opportunities;
Currently, BTC is around 62,500 USD, and ETH is above 1,750 USD, which is more suitable for waiting for high short opportunities after a rebound, rather than blindly chasing up.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
Viewpoint: Focus on short selling during rebounds today, amplifying high selling and low buying in cycles.
Currently, BTC cycles show significant differentiation:
1-hour, 2-hour, 12-hour are still in a bearish adjustment cycle;
4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour have gradually entered the bottom area, with the possibility of turning bullish again.
This morning, after a failed price attempt to break through the 2-hour resistance, it quickly fell back, indicating that the overhead selling pressure is still evident, and the short-term bulls have not formed an effective breakthrough.
Currently, the K-line rhythm is relatively chaotic, and market规律性下降, making it easy to see fast rises followed by fast falls. Therefore, it is not advisable to chase up and down in the short term; it is more suitable to operate within key support and pressure ranges.
Overall, before the daily line completes its adjustment, the market will still be mainly in a range of fluctuations. Patience to wait for larger cycles to resonate before participating will be more advantageous than frequently chasing orders.
Support to focus on: 61,000-61,300, 60,000-60,500
Pressure to focus on: 63,100-63,500, 64,000-64,600
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This article is originally published by 【Huiying Community】, and represents personal opinions only. Due to the delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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