Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Golem (@web 3_golem)

SpaceX has made history again: on July 7 (Tuesday), SpaceX was officially included in the NASDAQ 100 index, becoming the fastest company ever to be added to the NASDAQ 100 index, corresponding to about 1.3% of the index's weight. However, this historical achievement did not translate into a positive performance in SpaceX's stock price. According to Gate US stock data, SPCX closed down more than 6.8% on Tuesday, reporting $149.47, marking its lowest closing price since its IPO. How will SPCX perform in the future? What judgments have institutions on Wall Street made?

Positive news from index inclusion diminished, holding $150 is already difficult

Before SpaceX was included in the NASDAQ 100 index, JPMorgan estimated that it would trigger at least $4.3 billion in passive fund inflows, and over $800 billion of funds tracking the NASDAQ 100 index would continue to passively allocate to SpaceX.

While this is a significant positive, since the first day of SpaceX's public offering, "entry into the index" has been continuously speculated, and market expectations have long been digested. When the expectations were fulfilled on July 7, market sentiment was already unable to push the stock price higher. On the other hand, the huge buying interest behind the index did not dump the market on the day SpaceX was included; most of the passive buying was actually completed before July 7.

In addition, historical data also shows that inclusion in an index does not necessarily constitute a signal for sustained price increases; in some cases, it has even become a temporary high point.

Strategy is a typical case. On December 23, 2024, Strategy was included in the NASDAQ 100 index, but on that day, MSTR opened high and then closed down about 7.3%, with a closing price of $332.23. After that, Strategy entered into a continuous decline mode, reaching a stock price of $255.43 in February 2025. The passive buying brought by the index did not effectively support Strategy's stock price.

When the positive news from SpaceX's index inclusion is exhausted, the well-known stock unlock trend in August will also inevitably amplify the negative impact. SpaceX's prospectus clearly states that two days after the Q2 2026 financial report, qualifying internal shareholders may sell up to 20% of their locked shares; if the stock price increases by 30% compared to the IPO issue price and meets the standard for five days, an additional 10% may be unlocked. 22V Research strategist Jeff Jacobson estimates that insiders may sell 44% of SpaceX shares before early September.

Similar to how the positive expectations of index inclusion were digested by the market in advance, the panic brought by the unlocking of SpaceX stock will also inevitably be reflected in the price ahead of time, which is an important factor in recently and in the future suppressing SpaceX's stock price from a sentiment perspective. Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, also specifically mentioned SpaceX's upcoming stock unlock in an interview. He believes that it is not advisable to chase high prices in SpaceX in the short term; using the correction brought about by the unlock to build a position is the right choice.

However, on Tuesday, US stocks closed, and SpaceX did not decline alone. According to Gate US stock data, the three major US stock indices collectively closed lower, with the Dow down 0.25%, the S&P 500 down 0.45%, and the NASDAQ down 1.16%; simultaneously, AI concept stocks also fell collectively, with Astera Labs down 11.52%, Ambarella down 9.92%, Teradyne down 9.59%, and AeroVironment down 8.09%.

In this comparison, in a market where the overall trend is down and the positive news has been exhausted and only negative news remains, it is already commendable that SPCX has still held around $150 without breaking its IPO issue price. Additionally, according to OptionCharts data, the current put/call ratio for SPCX is 0.92, indicating that market sentiment is still neutral and not significantly bearish.

Moreover, a large number of call options expiring on July 10 are stacked above $160 for SPCX, with $150-$155 becoming a major point of contention for bulls and bears.

Institutions collectively give buy ratings, does SPCX still have potential positives?

It is evident that neither time nor market sentiment is on the side of the bulls. Over the past month, SPCX has repeatedly tested the support level of $150, but previously, $150 was an offensive position; now it is a complete defensive position. However, strangely, after the end of the IPO quiet period, Wall Street's institutional analysts collectively gave SPCX a buy rating.

As the IPO underwriters, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both gave SpaceX a buy rating, with Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan setting a target price of $205, and Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas giving a target price of $300. Additionally, Bank of America has also initiated coverage on SpaceX with a buy rating and a target price of $235; Citigroup has set a target price of $200 for SpaceX; Bernstein rated SpaceX outperforming the market with a target price of $239; Macquarie Group's target price is $250; Deutsche Bank's target price is $255; JPMorgan's target price is $225; UBS's target price is $210; Wells Fargo's target price is $230.

Raymond James Financial provided the most optimistic forecast, with analyst Brian Gesuale setting a target price for SPC as high as $800, believing that SpaceX will become "one of the most representative industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century."

However, these institutional ratings primarily focus on the long-term value of SpaceX, such as its positioning in rocket launches, Starlink, and AI space data centers. In the short term, especially before the August stock unlock wave arrives, what else can support SpaceX's stock price from dropping below $150 towards the $135 IPO price? The foreseeable potential positives include the following:

First, relying on Trump to call for purchases, on July 7, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell and her husband announced participation in the Invest America program, donating part of their held SpaceX shares to Trump's account for over 2 million American children, with an expected donation of about 2 million shares of SpaceX stock, totaling approximately $325 million in value. Previously, Trump had also publicly urged Musk to donate SpaceX stock to the "Trump account"; Trump is a businessman who understands value exchange, and perhaps after SpaceX stock enters Trump's account, he will also call for purchases similar to Micron and Dell.

Second, the SpaceX Starship plan is set for flight testing on July 14. The 13th flight test of SpaceX Starship (Flight 13) currently has a target launch date of July 14, 2026 (Tuesday), with a backup date of July 15. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued an operational advisory confirming NET (no earlier than) July 14. Rocket launches have always drawn public interest, and as a leading aerospace company, every launch by SpaceX attracts global attention. If Flight 13 is successfully completed, the narrative surrounding SpaceX may again briefly ignite "fan" enthusiasm and thereby push up the stock price. While the community and tracking sites generally believe that July 14 is the primary launch target, it could also be delayed a few days to weeks due to technical preparations, weather, and other factors.

But ultimately, what investors perhaps look forward to the most is for Musk himself to do something to "save the market."

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