Hello everyone, during this period I haven't written a good in-depth article, today let's thoroughly analyze the current market situation based on geopolitical circumstances, macroeconomics, on-chain data, and technical indicators! The article is a bit long, so please bear with me until the end, where I will provide specific operational advice! Friends who like and comment this year will surely get rich!
Let me first ramble a bit, Jiang Feng recently specified in an article to short BTC at 63600, 64600, and 63900, which has successively reached the target of 62700, ETH at 1830, 1820, 1805, and 1800, and basically completed the first target of 1750. Next, we will continue to analyze the market trends under the current economic situation!
1. Intensifying Geopolitical Situations
The U.S. has launched a new round of large-scale military strikes on multiple military targets in Iran, with the scale of action further expanding compared to before, while also lifting some temporary sanctions exemptions on Iranian oil sales. As a result, international oil prices increased by more than 5% during intraday trading, which will further suppress Bitcoin's price!
2. Fed's Hawkish Expectations
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the June FOMC meeting on July 9, which is worth paying attention to, as it may impact future trends. From the June meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot shows that among 19 policymakers, 9 expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Waller officially took charge of the Fed on July 7, and the market currently prices in a 65% probability of a rate hike in September.
This meeting's minutes will be the first important policy document since Waller took office. If it releases dovish signals, it may reinforce Bitcoin's recent rebound; if it leans towards hawkish, it may accelerate capital withdrawal from risk assets. However, based on Waller's previous firm stance on the 2% target and his reluctance to rush into rate cuts, it seems likely that the comments on the 9th will maintain a hawkish tone.
3. Positive Signals from Spot ETF Fund Inflows
Bitcoin's spot ETF has ended its previous 10 trading days of net outflows. On July 2, there was a net inflow of over $222 million in a single day, and on July 6, another $266 million net inflow was recorded. Yesterday, the total net inflow for the ETF was approximately $21.5 million, with BlackRock's IBIT showing a net inflow of $54.8 million. However, these signals alone are not enough to determine a market reversal, and the sustainability of ETF fund inflows remains to be observed. Citigroup has previously lowered Bitcoin's 12-month price target from $112,000 to $82,000, citing continued outflows of ETF funds and a lack of progress in U.S. cryptocurrency legislation.
4. Technical Analysis of Weakening Upward Momentum
Bitcoin's recent rebound reached a high of 64690 and started to retreat yesterday after six consecutive bullish days. Today's price has fallen back, with the daily line entering the short-term overbought area. After continuous rises, profit-taking is constantly being realized, further suppressing the price's continued upward extension. Currently, support is around the EMA21 daily moving average at 62700, and the lower Bollinger middle track is around 61900 providing support. The RSI indicator has turned down after being overbought, the KDJ has formed a death cross at high positions and is spreading downwards, and the four smaller MACD red momentum bars are expanding below the zero axis, with the fast and slow lines forming a death cross and extending downwards. Therefore, there is no reason to go long against the trend!
In conclusion: I personally suggest continuing to maintain a short position on rallies as the main strategy, and be cautious when participating in long positions!
For specific entry points, refer to the resistance levels above, and for targets refer to the support levels below!
Bitcoin:
Watch for resistance around 63200～64000～64700 above, and support around 62500～61800～61000～60500～58888～55000 below. It’s recommended to reduce positions after reaching the target and then engage in speculation!
Ethereum:
Watch for resistance around 1770～1800～1855 above, and support around 1740～1700～1670～1570～1500～1370 below. It’s recommended to reduce positions after reaching the target and then engage in speculation.
Note to participate with light positions at the above levels! Light positions! Light positions! Focus on the Fed's meeting minutes on the morning of the 9th! Remember not to operate blindly with heavy positions! As long as we still have capital in hand, there is a chance, and when the time comes to go in, I hope everyone has ample ammunition!
Continuing to update serialized content is not easy, I hope it helps everyone, and please give a like and interact as encouragement. Your likes and comments are my greatest motivation to continue creating!
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
