As the price of Bitcoin has fallen from its high of about $125,000 in October 2025 to the current range of approximately $62,000 to $64,000, Wall Street's leading investment bank Bernstein, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, released its latest research report this Monday, emphasizing that this round of adjustment is significantly milder compared to historical bear markets and signals an increase in market maturity. Despite strong short-term pessimism, institutional holdings remain stable and structural support factors are unshaken. Bernstein maintains a target price of $150,000 by the end of 2026, candidly stating that this forecast is “aggressive,” but the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged.
The Mildest Bear Market in History
According to Bernstein data, the maximum decline of Bitcoin in this cycle from its peak of $125,000 is approximately 54%. This figure is far below the 75% to 90% depth of pullbacks commonly seen at the end of previous bear markets. The report states that this “mildest bear market” reflects a shift in the crypto market from being dominated by retail speculation to a phase of institutionalization and maturity. In past cycles, price crashes often accompanied by systematic leverage defaults, liquidity exhaustion, and a complete collapse of confidence; while this adjustment is more a reflection of a “crisis of confidence” rather than a fundamental deterioration of underlying funding or narratives.
The current Bitcoin price has risen from its low to around $63,000. Bernstein believes that the shallowness of this round of adjustment itself is a positive signal: even under significant ETF outflows and a pressured macro environment, the asset still demonstrates strong resilience. This contrasts sharply with the extreme scenarios in early cycles where “anything could crash.”
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The Game of ETF Outflows and Institutional Buying
The report specifically mentions that the scale of US Bitcoin spot ETF is about $74 billion, with a cumulative outflow of about $5.5 billion this year. Although this number sounds substantial, considering the nearly halved price, the actual degree of funding deterioration is far lower than the level implied by market pessimism. Bernstein emphasizes that ETF outflows primarily reflect some investors taking profits or declining risk appetite, rather than a large-scale retreat by institutions.
In contrast, continuous buying by corporate funds, especially Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), provides significant balance. In 2026, Strategy accumulated approximately 175,000 BTC, investing about $14 billion, becoming an important “buying force” in the market. Even with recent small-scale sell-offs to meet dividend and financing needs, its overall holdings still account for a significant proportion of Bitcoin's total supply, and the probability of a large-scale passive liquidation is extremely low. Bernstein regards it as a “market stabilizer,” countering some net selling pressure from mining enterprises shifting towards AI data centers.
This dynamic highlights the evolution of Bitcoin's holding structure: from high volatility dominated by retail to more stable allocations by institutions and corporate treasuries. Bernstein points out that leading treasury companies and ETFs saw total Bitcoin inflows of about $10 billion in 2026, though lower than the $60 billion in 2025, net inflows still remain positive, indicating that the foundation of demand has not shaken.
RWA and Regulatory Progress
The report also focuses on the progress in the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). Currently, the RWA scale has hit a historical high, reaching $52 billion. This growth provides new application scenarios and liquidity injection points for Bitcoin and the entire crypto ecosystem. Bernstein believes that the spread of the RWA narrative is likely to further enhance institutional willingness to allocate crypto assets.
On the regulatory front, the US GENIUS Act (aiming to provide regulatory certainty for digital assets) is progressing through details with a near fifty-fifty probability. Despite short-term legislative uncertainties, any positive developments could become catalysts for market turning points. Bernstein believes that these structural factors collectively build a foundation for Bitcoin's transformation from a “speculative asset” to a “mature asset class.”
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Clear Bottom Signals, Long-Term Logic Unchanged
After the release of Bernstein's report, the market reacted positively. The endorsement from top institutions reinforces the narrative that “the industry is maturing,” providing authoritative support for the current bottom area. Although the $150,000 year-end target is seen as aggressive, considering institutional entry, RWA expansion, and potential regulatory benefits, its feasibility is higher than optimistic predictions from previous cycles. Bitcoin, as a direct beneficiary, will see price resilience and institutional holdings as the core driving forces for rebound. The report reinforces the idea that “a weak bear market equals strong recovery potential.”
A Broader Perspective
The four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin faces challenges this time. Traditionally, there is a clear gap between the peak of the bull market after halving and the bottom of the bear market; whereas this time, under the impetus of institutionalization, it shows characteristics of an “extended bull market.” Even if the remaining time in 2026 sees significant volatility, institutions like Bernstein believe that the underlying adoption curves (ETF, corporate treasury, RWA) are irreversible.
Of course, the macro interest rate environment, regulatory games, geopolitical factors, and selling pressure from mining companies' transitions may still trigger phase fluctuations. Bernstein does not shy away from the “aggressive” nature of the target price, emphasizing the need to continuously monitor ETF net flows, corporate buying rhythms, and legislative progress. Overall, this report is not merely a price prediction, but a systematic assessment of the structural transformation of the crypto market. In the current climate of retail panic and institutional resilience, it offers a calm professional framework: the 54% mild pullback may well be a necessary growing pain as the market transitions from frenzied speculation to sustainable growth. Investors should focus on the actual dynamics of funding rather than a single price fluctuation.
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