Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.15 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.9%, totaling $1.24 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $311.3 billion, decreasing by 1% over the last seven days, with USDT making up 59.11%.
CoinMarketCap shows that among the top 200 projects, most have risen while a few have fallen. Specifically: BTC has risen by 4.03% over the past seven days, ETH has risen by 11.16%, SOL has risen by 15.28%, HYPE has risen by 10.01%, and M has risen by 82.13%.
Market Forecast (June 29 - July 3):
The RSI index is 57.18 (neutral, higher than last week), the Fear and Greed Index is 22 (fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is 56 (neutral).
BTC: $53,000-63,000 ($53,000 is the on-chain valuation bottom)
ETH: $1,400-1,750 ($1,400 is the pessimistic scenario for institutions)
SOL: $76-85
A noteworthy signal is that technical indicators are showing signs of a bottoming process!
BTC, ETH, and SOL have simultaneously flashed TD Sequential buy signals on the monthly chart. Historically, such synchronized signals often appear near long-term cycle lows, suggesting selling pressure may have exhausted. Moreover, this week's rebound (June 29-July 3) was driven by a macro-level short squeeze triggered by weak employment data that dampens rate hike expectations, with ETH and SOL leading in weekly gains at one point.
Risk Warning:
Massive inflows from exchanges imply a risk of a “one-time dump”
The potential for reverse harvesting may arise as macro data has “fully priced in”
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced plans to sell $1.25 billion of BTC, marking its first shift to a “sell” strategy in over four years
Understanding Now
Large Institutional Movements: Over 110,000 “Sleeping” Bitcoins Transferred
Since June 29, there has been an abnormal transfer of over 113,000 Bitcoins (approximately $6.97 billion) on-chain, with all transferred Bitcoins aged over three months, including about 23,000 from addresses that have held for more than two years. The market generally speculates this indicates large institutions are undergoing internal restructuring or wallet consolidation; the movement of these “old” Bitcoins is often viewed as a key signal affecting short-term market liquidity.
Bitcoin ETFs Face Record $4.1 Billion Monthly Outflow
In June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $4.1 billion, the largest single-month outflow since their launch in January 2024, completely erasing institutional demand as a key support. On June 29 alone, there was a net outflow of $231 million, marking the eighth consecutive trading day of capital fleeing. BlackRock's IBIT has been the hardest hit, accounting for approximately $3 billion of the outflow.
ETF Selling Pressure Leads to $4.4 Billion “Oversupply”
Along with massive redemptions from ETFs, the market is experiencing a severe supply-demand imbalance. In June, ETFs net sold approximately 71,600 BTC, together with around 450 BTC in daily new supply from miners, while enterprises only increased their holdings by 7,500 BTC, creating a supply excess gap of about $4.4 billion.
Whale Groups Diverging: Medium Whales Accelerate Selling
On-chain data indicates divergence among different sizes of whale groups. Medium whales holding 100-1,000 BTC sold 55,312 BTC within 60 days, reaching the strongest selling pressure in the statistical period. Meanwhile, large whales holding 1,000-10,000 BTC are still net accumulating, but the pace of accumulation has slowed by 29% compared to two weeks ago.
Bitcoin Holds Above $60,000, Ethereum Ends Historically Longest Quarterly Decline
Bitcoin briefly fell below the $60,000 mark on June 29, then rebounded above $61,000 at the beginning of July. Ethereum performed weaker, ending its record longest consecutive quarterly decline with prices hovering around $1,570, close to multi-month lows.
Significant Inflows to Exchanges Indicate Increasing Volatility
On June 30, Bitcoin exchange inflows surged to 49,000 BTC, while Ethereum inflows exceeded 1.25 million ETH, both at extreme highs since 2026. Historically, such data often signals major directional changes in the market, and the act of whales moving tokens to exchanges is interpreted as a potential preparation for selling.
Altcoins Stage $200 Million Short Squeeze
During Bitcoin's consolidation, the market saw a short squeeze amounting to $199.87 million, with short sellers suffering losses of as much as $122.9 million. This spurred some altcoins to experience a brief double-digit rebound, but due to Bitcoin's inability to hold above $60,000, the sustainability of the rebound is generally questioned.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) Changes Strategy, Plans to Sell $1.25 Billion in BTC
As the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Strategy announced a “Bitcoin monetization plan” on June 29, authorizing the sale of up to $1.25 billion in tokens. This action marks a significant shift from the long-held “never sell” stance of its founder Michael Saylor, aiming to raise funds for stock buybacks and preferred stock dividends.
Metaplanet Increases Holdings Against the Trend, Robinhood Launches L2 Chain
Despite extreme market panic, some institutions choose to increase their holdings against the trend. Japanese-listed company Metaplanet announced an increase of 2,823 BTC this week. Meanwhile, Robinhood launched the Ethereum Layer 2 chain “Robinhood Chain” based on Arbitrum, focusing on the RWA (Real-World Assets) tokenization track.
Fear and Greed Index Falls to “Extreme Fear”
Under the dual pressure of macro headwinds (the Fed's hawkish stance, funds rotating to semiconductor stocks) and internal selling pressure, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell to 16 on June 30, indicating “extreme fear” conditions. Forecast market data from Kalshi shows that traders have priced in a potential drop of Bitcoin to $45,000 by the end of 2026.
Macroeconomics
On July 1, the ADP employment number for June was 98,000, expected 118,000.
On July 2, the unemployment rate for June was 4.2%, expected 4.30%, previous value 4.30%.
On July 2, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll for June was 57,000, expected 110,000, previous value revised from 172,000 to 129,000.
On July 3, according to CME “FedWatch” data, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is reported at 82.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 17.7%.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
WebX 2026 will be held from July 13 to 14, 2026, in Tokyo, Japan.
Bitcoin Hong Kong will be held from August 27 to 28, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
Canada Blockchain Week 2026 will be held from July 20 to 26 in Toronto, Canada.
Important Events
The Malta Financial Regulator is exploring ways to include some DeFi businesses within its regulatory scope, with the discussion document deadline being July 10.
On July 9 at 20:30, the United States will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4 (in ten thousand).
On July 9 at 02:00, the Fed will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.
Project Progress
The next GRASS token holders and network participants conference call will be held on July 7. The meeting will outline the progress of the Grass network, development roadmap, business milestones, growth highlights, etc.
Berachain will undergo a PoL Next upgrade on July 7, and the BGT token will be deprecated.
LayerZero will upgrade the default DVN configuration to 3-of-3 on July 9 and plans to deprecate the v1 relayer; this change only affects applications using default settings and is expected to cause a temporary interruption of about 15 minutes.
Token Unlocks
Opinion (OPN) will unlock 32 million tokens on July 5, valued at approximately $2.08 million, accounting for 9.82% of the circulating supply.
IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 12.38 million tokens on July 8, valued at approximately $483,000, accounting for 0.31% of the circulating supply.
Movement (MOVE) will unlock 4.63 million tokens on July 9, valued at approximately $1.99 million, accounting for 4.3% of the circulating supply.
Babylon (BABY) will unlock 133 million tokens on July 10, valued at approximately $1.87 million, accounting for 6.11% of the circulating supply.
Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.08 billion tokens on July 10, valued at approximately $2.65 million, accounting for 3.63% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research serves as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for you. Through “Weekly Insights” and “In-Depth Reports,” we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column “Hot Selection” (AI + expert dual filtering), we identify potential assets and reduce trial and error costs. Each week, our researchers also meet with you through live broadcasts to interpret hot topics and predict trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://www.hotcoin.com/r/Hotcoinresearch
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