Everyone should be wary of the "holiday rebound trap." This recent rise occurred during the low-trading phase of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, where low liquidity amplified short-term volatility. Weekend cryptocurrency trends often happen in a thin liquidity environment, making such rebounds susceptible to sharp reversals. However, do not mistake the rebound for a reversal; today's strategy is to focus on short positions!

First, regarding today's strategy:

For Bitcoin, pay attention to the upper levels: resistance around 63600～64000～64800, and aim for the lower levels: 62200～60800～58000 (reduce position by 70%). The remaining position will continue to play around 55500～53000.

For Ethereum, pay attention to the upper levels: resistance around 1830～1850～1880, and aim for the lower levels: 1750～1720～1650～1620～1550～1500 (reduce position by 70%). The remaining position will continue to play around 1450～1350.

July is destined to be extraordinary; short positions are still stuck. The Thursday shorts at BTC 62400～63600 and ETH 1724～1755 are advised to hold on; the current trend is still bearish, and the market has not reversed. As long as the positions are safe, there is no need to worry too much!

Recent non-farm employment data has been weak, cooling market expectations for aggressive short-term rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, leading to some market stretching, while ETFs continue to experience weekly outflows. As of July 2, within four trading days, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $527 million, marking the eighth consecutive week of net outflows and setting a record for the longest weekly outflow since the product was launched.

Since the historic peak of $126,000 was halved, the mid-term bearish trend has not reversed; this is merely a technical recovery rebound after a decline, not a reversal to a bull market. The daily MACD shows a low golden cross, with bearish momentum diminishing, but prices remain pressured under the mid to long-term moving averages EMA55 and EMA144. The four-hour RSI has turned downward after entering overbought territory, limiting the rebound space. KDJ is showing a dead cross with downward divergence, and bullish momentum is obviously exhausted, making it unwise to blindly chase after rises! Personally, I lean towards the current market being merely a downward continuation; further declines are anticipated. The liquidity during the U.S. holiday has made the recent rise just a pretense, and the downward trend will ultimately continue!

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