AI continues to refresh its valuation highs, while the crypto market is still awaiting truly incremental funds.
In recent times, global risk assets have shown a clear dichotomy: on one side, the U.S. stock market’s AI industry chain continues to attract institutional capital inflow, with valuations and profit expectations rising in tandem; on the other side, the overall liquidity in the crypto market is weak, with most sectors remaining in oscillation and rotation, except for core assets like BTC.
Why do seemingly similar risk assets exhibit completely different rhythms?
Surrounding the notion "global capital is being reconstructed: the pricing logic of risk assets has entered a new phase," a recent Space discussion explored this change from perspectives of capital structure, market expectations, and trading behavior.
The Divergence of AI and Crypto: Capital Seeking 'Verifiable Certainty'
Regarding the current prominent market divergence, multiple participants agree: capital has not left risk assets but is rather recalibrating towards directions with "stronger verifiability."
Firstly, the Block Country Treasure mentioned that a key reason for the persistently attractive capital inflow in the current AI market is that the industry chain has entered the "cashable stage."
More and more technology companies are beginning to demonstrate real income and growth trajectories, enabling institutions to price based on profit models, cash flow, and industry cycles, which provides AI assets with stronger explainability and sustainable allocation logic.
In contrast, outside of a few assets like BTC, most projects in the crypto market still rely on narratives and expectations for driving value. From Layer2 to Meme, and then to AI Agents and RWA, the speed of hotspot rotation is quick, but there is a lack of funding mainlines that can sustain over multiple quarters.
In his view, the essence of this difference is not a decline in risk appetite, but a repricing of capital towards "certainty."
From Broad-based Growth to Divergence: The Market Enters a Structural Phase
PandaWL believes that the current market state is closer to structural divergence rather than simple adjustment.
He pointed out that BTC’s overall market structure remains relatively stable, but the liquidity of small- and mid-cap assets continues to decline, indicating that the market has shifted from the past phase of "overall price increases driving returns" to a phase where "capital concentrates on a few assets."
In this process, the importance of asset quality and capital efficiency has significantly increased.
He further stated that if the next market cycle is to re-enter an upward trend, new sources of funding are needed beyond mere internal rotations.
For instance, RWA, stablecoin payments, and on-chain finance are essentially attempts to connect with the traditional financial system and build new capital entry points. Once these channels truly achieve scale effects, the crypto market may regain continuous incremental funds.
Beyond the World Cup, the More Important Matter is How the Market Prices Emotion
As the World Cup enters the knockout stage, event-driven trading has once again become the focus of market discussions.
Crypto.0824 expressed that rather than predicting match results, he is more concerned about the process of changes in market sentiment.
When the market reaches a high consensus on a particular outcome, odds and prices often reflect information in advance; real opportunities often arise during the capital redistribution phase "after expectations are fulfilled."
Therefore, what he focuses on is not the outcome itself, but how the market reprices risk before and after the event.
He also pointed out that the World Cup is not only a sports event but also spurs synchronized fluctuations in prediction markets, sports conceptual assets, and community sentiment. From a trading perspective, what is more worth capturing is the event's impact on capital flow, rather than a single outcome.
Where Will the Next Round of Incremental Funds Come From?
Regarding the market direction over the next 6–12 months, several participants share a similar judgment: the market is transitioning from "narrative-driven" to "value-driven."
Katelynn believes that the sectors that can continuously attract capital in the future need to possess genuine commercial viability, instead of just relying on conceptual expansion.
She specifically mentioned three directions:
RWA: Promoting real assets on-chain, becoming an important channel connecting traditional finance
Stablecoin Payments: Evolving from a trading tool to a global payment and settlement infrastructure
AI + Crypto Integration: Including AI Agents, on-chain data services, and decentralized computing networks
The commonality in these directions lies in the gradual formation of real users and actual demand, rather than merely relying on market sentiment.
Global Capital is Being Restructured, and Market Pricing Logic is Changing
Throughout the discussion, "restructuring" has been a repeatedly mentioned key term.
Whether it's the AI industry entering the profit realization stage or the changes in liquidity structure within the crypto market, they essentially point towards the same trend: global capital is redefining the pricing methods for risk assets.
The previously liquidity-driven comprehensive growth is being replaced by "structural selection." Capital is inclined to flow towards assets that can continuously create value and demonstrate long-term realization capability.
At the same time, event-driven trading is becoming one of the new incremental scenarios in the crypto market. With global events like the World Cup occurring, the interaction between market sentiment, outcome expectations, and capital flow has become more frequent.
In this context, prediction markets and event trading are evolving into one of the new narratives in the market.
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