Brothers, the big cake is now fluctuating around 62000, having risen nearly 4000 points from the low of 57735. On the surface, it looks like the bulls are making a strong comeback, but a closer look at the market reveals a deep struggle between longs and shorts, with neither side willing to give way.

Let me first clarify the on-chain data for everyone: the current price range is 61000–61500, with this round's lowest point at 57735, which is also the lowest this year; the rebound reached a high of 62137. Key to note is the actions of the main players: whales are hoarding coins madly in the 59000 range, accumulating 270,000 BTC. Such concentrated buying on this scale is unprecedented on-chain, even more so than during the pandemic bottom and the FTX collapse. On the other hand, June saw a massive outflow from spot ETFs, with a net outflow of 4.51 billion dollars, setting a new historical record; just BlackRock's IBIT alone withdrew over 3 billion. The short liquidation amount also reached 130 million dollars in 24 hours, with both sides exchanging blows. I've included supporting 4-hour volume K-line graphs, oscillation probability diagrams, and various funding behavior tracking tables in the images for everyone to refer to.

Now the most interesting conflict in the market arises: who is buying and who is selling? The bottom is supported by whales with huge capital, genuinely smashing down 20 billion dollars to buy at low prices, rather than just talking big online. The selling pressure comes from fleeing institutional ETFs, which are exerting continuous selling pressure of over 4 billion. With 20 billion in bottom-buying funds countering 4 billion in exiting institutional funds, the 60000 mark has directly become the main battleground for both sides, with tensions running high.

So what news is the entire market waiting for? By looking at the Polymarket betting data, we can gauge public expectations: before the July 3 settlement, the probability of the price staying above 60000 is nearly 70%, while standing firm at 62000 is only 24%, and reaching 64000 drops to a mere 3.55%. To put it bluntly, the market is voting with real money: 60000 support is strong, but crossing the hurdle at 62000 is very difficult.

There are major events clustered ahead, each capable of breaking the current stalemate at 61000: July 14 CPI data, the Walsh debt meeting; July 17 CLARITY hearing, finalizing the SEC and CFTC's crypto regulatory powers; and by the end of the month, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Any data or policy that exceeds expectations could trigger a one-sided market trend.

Combining funding and news, let me outline three potential future trends and their probabilities clearly: the first scenario, which is the easiest to emerge, has a probability of 45%: a long-term consolidation in the 61000–62400 wide range. The whales firmly support the bottom, while the ETF selling pressure continues to suppress, making effective breakthroughs difficult without heavy news catalysts. The second scenario has a 35% probability: breaking through 62400 with volume to open upward space targeting 64000–65500. To achieve this upward movement, favorable regulatory news or a return of ETF funds is necessary, which is hard to align in the short term. The third scenario, with the lowest probability of only 20%: a strong breakout above 65500, reaching nearly 68000 before retracing again. This requires multiple favorable factors to align, with ETF flows returning, regulatory loosening, and a collective short squeeze all happening simultaneously, which is a high threshold.

Finally, let me share some practical thoughts; do not rush to act right now: first wait for a decision at 62000. Stuck at the midpoint of 61500, whether you chase long or short, you'll essentially be paying the market’s transaction fees. The current trend is clearly oscillating, and it's crucial not to hold long-term positions; fast in and out for small profits is the way to go. Both sides have revealed their cards; whoever rushes to open positions first is likely to suffer losses. Be patient and wait for volume K-line confirmation of the breakout direction, and we will follow the trend to enter once the battle for 62000 concludes.

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Disclaimer: This is a personal market review and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and contract trading carries significant risks; please control your position wisely.

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