Tomorrow, Friday, is a holiday in the United States, and the US stock market will be closed. Following that, there will be three days of holidays. The performance of the US stocks has not been very good in the past two days, mainly due to a pullback in the semiconductor sector. The reasons have been mentioned in the two pinned tweets above. Since last week, institutions and hedge funds have started to exit tech stocks. The buyers who came in later should mainly be retail investors. We will need to continue watching the data for future trends.

Whether institutions and hedge funds have rushed back in, or are still waiting for a better time, allowing the market to cool down a bit may not be a bad thing. The earnings season will start in late July, so the time to relax won’t be very long. Furthermore, today's non-farm payroll data shows a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, but the number of employed individuals is also declining. Overall, this data is not good. On one hand, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has decreased, and on the other hand, the US economy also appears slightly pessimistic.

Of course, the labor data is not the market's main focus right now. The key point still needs to be centered on inflation. Oil prices have stabilized back below $70, which is almost back to pre-war levels. In about a month’s time, retail oil prices should also drop, and we can expect to see signs of improvement in inflation before the interest rate meeting in September. It is highly likely that there will not be an interest rate hike in 2026. But a rate cut is even more difficult.

Bitcoin's performance in the past two days has been quite good. Even with the decline in US stocks, the price of bitcoin:native has remained stable, consistently hovering around $60,000. This supports my frequently mentioned view that $60,000 has strong purchasing power. My luck with dual currency is not very good; I bought Bitcoin at $59,000, but it actually traded at $60,000, which is a bit frustrating.

Then there is also a high sell at $62,000 on Friday, which looks like it may also face the risk of being executed. I have realized that I really am not suited to sell Bitcoin, as I always feel a bit uncomfortable after selling, although this was still a test I prepared in advance. My main holdings have not been touched.

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