Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser2010)

The World Cup has been ongoing for 20 days.

The trading volume in the prediction market is soaring, with massive gains and losses occurring in turn. Previously, Odaily Planet Daily compiled a list of the World Cup's“Huge Gains & Major Losses” cases, and detailed the strategies and tools for following smart money.

Today, in addition to joking about "big smart money," we want to discuss whether classic loss cases have counter-reference value.

Spain vs. Cape Verde Draw: Goalkeeper's 7 Stunning Saves, Whales Lost $1 Million to Win $85,000

40-year-old Cape Verde goalkeeper Volziniya gasped as he looked at the opponents on the field, his body slightly hunched, ready to save any ball kicked towards him.

For this goalkeeper, valued at only 50,000 euros, many did not have high hopes for him or the Cape Verde island team before the match; after all, their opponents were the top powerhouses of the World Cup - the Spanish team, whose star player, Yamar, alone is valued at 200 million euros, ranking first on the World Cup player valuation list, 4000 times Volziniya's value; the total value of Spanish players reaches 1.2 billion euros, making them the favorites to win the championship before the World Cup. La Liga features a series of prestigious clubs like Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atlético Madrid, with countless homegrown stars.

However, football is not merely a game of comparing values; it is more a competition of skills on the field.

For the Cape Verde national team players, being able to stand on the World Cup stage, enjoying the fun football brings and the adrenaline rush of competition is already enough. (Odaily Planet Daily Note: According to commentator Guan Zeyuan, as an Atlantic island nation, Cape Verde has a total land area of about 4,000 square kilometers. They hold football matches on each island to decide the winning team and then eventually select the players who will participate in the World Cup, somewhat like the domestic regional events “Village BA” and “Scottish Super League”.)

In the match, the Spanish team shot 27 times and had 7 shots on target, but in the end, all attacks were successfully thwarted by Volziniya and his teammates. As the referee blew the final whistle, the game concluded with a score of "0-0" between Spain and Cape Verde. This shocking result caused many prediction market players to lose everything in an instant.

Before the match, @betoor619 invested 1 million dollars at a rate of 92 cents buying "Spain to beat Cape Verde," which many saw as a "prediction market investment opportunity"; some even thought this matchup would be a "one-sided slaughter, high-scoring game."

But the Cape Verde team, especially goalkeeper Volziniya, would not accept this outcome. They worked together with precision, focused their defense tightly, and executed their counterattack strategy exceptionally well.

In the end,@betoor619 did not manage to earn the expected $85,000 from the "investment opportunity," but instead lost his initial 1 million dollars.

This match may also mark the beginning of a series of shocking upsets in this World Cup, where strong teams have been held to draws by less well-known smaller nations or weaker teams, making betting on draws the best choice in the prediction market.

Recommended reading “Regardless of whether you understand football, is betting on a draw the best strategy for this World Cup?”.

Portugal vs. DR Congo Draw: 41-Year-Old Ronaldo's Former Glory, Smart Money Lost Over $240,000 for a Lesson

On June 18, in the World Cup Group K stage, strongly anticipated Portugal faced DR Congo, which entered the World Cup for the first time.

According to FIFA data, as of June 10, 2026, the Portuguese men's football team ranks 7th, behind the Netherlands, showcasing relatively outstanding overall strength, particularly with C Ronaldo, who has "5 Champions League titles, 5 Ballon d'Ors, participated in 6 World Cups, and is the all-time top scorer," giving many fans full confidence in Portugal's performance before the match. Many hoped C Ronaldo could score in this game to become "the first player to score in six consecutive World Cups," outshining Messi.

On the other hand, DR Congo ranks only 45th in the FIFA ranking. This participation also marks its return to the World Cup stage after a 52-year absence.

In terms of player valuation comparison, the total value of the Portuguese team exceeds 1 billion euros, including 2 "one hundred million euro players" and 8 first-class players valued over 40 million euros. The DR Congo team has a total value of about 150 million euros, only one-seventh of Portugal's. Before the game, DR Congo expressed its hope to "rewrite the history of humiliation, at least make it to the World Cup knockout stage, aiming for the last 32."

Back to the match, on the day of the clash, C Ronaldo was on the starting list for Portugal, but ultimately, he had 3 shots with 0 on target for the whole game; Portugal had 7 shots total with only 1 on target, showing a clear lack of attacking firepower.

Although Portugal took the lead in less than 7 minutes with a lightning-fast goal from 19-year-old João Neves, during the stoppage time of the first half, when Portugal was most likely to be complacent and lower their guard, DR Congo equalized at the last moment.

Similar to Cape Verde, DR Congo's defensive counterattacks were also executed superbly, with tight marking; additionally, the three central defenders with an average height over 185 cm further limited C Ronaldo's performance, putting immense pressure on Portugal's midfield and defense, and ultimately resulting in a lack of a winning start.

In the prediction market, some smart money with a pre-match 49% victory rate spent over $243,000 predicting “Portugal to beat DR Congo” at an average entry price of 76 cents, resulting in a loss.

In the knockout match today between England and DR Congo, DR Congo initially scored a goal thanks to a defensive counterattack strategy, but ultimately, the England team, relying on Kane's double, scored two goals and narrowly defeated DR Congo, avoiding the shocking scenario of “weak teams leveling or even defeating strong teams” happening again.

Saudi Arabia vs. Cape Verde Draw: Foolish Money Bets on Cape Verde Win, Ultimately Losing $80,000

In the World Cup event predictions, whenever you try to rely on past experiences, the trend reverses.

In previous group matches, Cape Verde relied on goalkeeper Volziniya and the team's strict defensive counterattack strategy to defeat opponents repeatedly, and later held Uruguay to a draw again.

Given this, the "big smart money" in the prediction market boldly predicted that Cape Verde would win against Saudi Arabia before the match.

However, in the end, Cape Verde relied on an extremely resilient defensive style and a united team strategy to draw "0-0" with Saudi Arabia.

According to the PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows, the top World Cup reverse prediction address @Zzzz87 predicted incorrectly again, betting on Cape Verde to win against Saudi Arabia, incurring an additional loss of $80,000. Previously, this address had lost as much as $620,000 since the World Cup began, with the win rate dropping below 40%, and generally, the larger the position, the lower the win rate.

In the past week, @Zzzz87 reflected on its mistakes, began to change strategies, and no longer insisted on weak teams pulling off upsets, but rather shifted to betting on strong teams winning directly. Indeed, as the knockout rounds began, the occurrence of strong teams being overturned gradually decreased. The "buy strong strategy" of @Zzzz87 quickly proved effective, with profit ratios ranging from nearly 30% to close to 120%.

Therefore, even though this address has incurred a loss of around $255,000 within the past month, the profit scale for the past week has reached about $269,000.

Currently, this address holds multiple prediction events for matches such as “Switzerland vs. Algeria,” “Spain vs. Austria,” “Portugal vs. Croatia,” and “Argentina vs. Cape Verde,” with investment amounts ranging from several thousand dollars to $36,000. The outcomes will be revealed tomorrow.

Football is Round, Everything is Possible

Having seen many cases, is it that the former “foolish counter money” learned a lesson and transformed into “smart money”, or is the “top counter money curse” proving effective again?

It's hard to conclude, as some have deleted their accounts and fled, refusing to be observed by "survivor bias," and others have won and lost evenly, or hedge with multiple accounts.

Whether playing matches or predicting matches, the only certainty is "uncertainty."

The results of the World Cup are by no means a comparison of team values, nor a comparison of national strength and training systems, and they certainly do not shift with the will and financial power of external participants. Whether following smart money or countering foolish money, you need to watch the matches and flexibly adjust while enjoying them.

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