Bitcoin has just completed the toughest market phase since 2026, with a cumulative drop of about 30% in the first half of the year, and it may close down for the second consecutive quarter, which has only happened three times in Bitcoin's history.
BTC fell from around $65,800 at the beginning of June to below $60,000 at the start of July. It declined slowly for most of June rather than experiencing a sudden crash in a single day.
However, during this downturn, Standard Chartered did something somewhat unusual.
The bank did not lower its Bitcoin price forecast for the third time this year, instead maintaining its year-end target price of $100,000, with its chief analyst even referring to this decline as a buying opportunity rather than a warning signal.
On one side, prices are falling, while on the other side, large banks refuse to waver; this contrast is at the core of this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction.
Below, we will specifically break down what signals Standard Chartered, Bernstein, and ETF fund flow data are currently conveying, and outline key price levels to watch for the remainder of the month.
Key Points
- As of July 1, 2026, Bitcoin was trading at around $59,000, with a cumulative drop of about 30% in the first half of the year.
- Even if BTC falls below $60,000, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick still maintains the year-end target price of $100,000 and refers to this pullback as a buying opportunity.
- Bernstein holds a more optimistic target price of $150,000 for 2026, reiterating this viewpoint most recently on March 24, 2026.
- Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $4.06 billion in June 2026, marking the largest single-month redemption since the fund's launch in January 2024.
- This round of fund outflows is the third similar cycle in 2026, following similar reversals in February and April. This pattern, similarly to a single price target, is worth noting.
- Support is roughly around $58,000; if the price returns above approximately $65,800, it may indicate that the downtrend is likely ending.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction July 2026: Standard Chartered Refuses to Abandon $100,000 Target
As July begins, one of the most anticipated Bitcoin price predictions comes from Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick, who is the head of global digital asset research at the bank.
Even with recent prices dipping below $60,000, he maintains the year-end $100,000 target price, and his reasoning is not just vague optimism.
The $300,000 Bitcoin Prediction: How It Was First Halved, Then Downgraded Again
Before diving directly into the $100,000 figure, it is important to understand that this target price has survived two rounds of downgrades this year.
Standard Chartered initially set a bolder prediction of $150,000 at the beginning of 2026, which itself was a significant downgrade from the more aggressive $300,000 prediction proposed by the bank in 2025.
Kendrick's initial logic was based on two independent demand pillars: one being corporate treasury purchases similar to the Strategy model, and the other being accelerated inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs.
When corporate treasury purchases noticeably slowed at the end of last year, the bank downgraded the target price to $150,000, pointing out that future price increases would realistically depend solely on ETF purchases.
Then in February 2026, as ETF fund outflows steadily accumulated at the beginning of the year, Kendrick further downgraded the target price to $100,000, warning that Bitcoin might first drop towards $50,000 before a real recovery.
Thus, when this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction references Standard Chartered's viewpoint, it is important to know that this figure has already survived two downturn tests and does not yet require a third downgrade.
Standard Chartered Calls This Collapse a Gift, Not a Warning
Kendrick's insistence on the target price during the June crash is based on rather specific reasons, rather than simply being generally optimistic.
He pointed out that this downturn actually stemmed from outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, forced liquidations related to excessive leveraged positions, and minor liquidations by certain corporate holders, rather than a change in the underlying demand logic for Bitcoin.
In his view, this combination of factors is more like a temporary setback, rather than the beginning of a long-term bear market; he publicly views the dip below $60,000 as a buying opportunity.
Standard Chartered's long-term view has also remained largely unchanged, as the bank still expects Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by 2030, albeit at a slower realization path than initially expected.
Current Position of Bitcoin and Why It Just Experienced the Worst Month of 2026
According to CoinMarketCap data, as of July 1, 2026, Bitcoin was trading slightly below $59,500.
According to CoinGecko's historical price data, this means BTC has dropped over 50% from the record high of $126,080 established in October 2025.
If we look only at the past month, the picture becomes even clearer.
BTC opened in June close to $65,800 and experienced continuous downward fluctuations throughout the month. Multiple ETF fund flow reports show that for most of June, Bitcoin's price hovered between $58,000 and $60,000, only getting closer to $59,000 at the start of July.
The main drivers of this decline were not issues with Bitcoin itself nor new regulatory shocks, but rather a wave of fund withdrawals from Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Since these products were launched in the U.S. in January 2024, June became the worst month for ETF fund outflows, continuing the redemption trend that had formed since mid-May.
Some additional context is necessary: according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, since the launch in 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of about $55 billion. Although the fund flows turned negative in May and June of 2026, it resembles more of a challenging adjustment rather than a collective exit by institutions.
Coupled with an overall decline in risk appetite in financial markets, and concerns that the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates elevated for a longer period, BTC had little support to rely on for most of June.
This does not imply that Bitcoin's long-term trajectory has changed, but it does explain why so many traders are now eager to find explicit Bitcoin price predictions instead of just silently staring at charts.
Bullish Scenario vs. Bearish Scenario: How High Could BTC Rise or How Low Could It Fall
Not all Wall Street institutions are as cautious as Standard Chartered.
Bernstein has actually adjusted in the opposite direction this year, raising the 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000 and stating that this downturn in 2026 is one of the mildest bear markets in Bitcoin's history. The institution recently reaffirmed this view on March 24, 2026, arguing that there had been no systemic failures commonly seen in past crypto winters.
Led by Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein analysts believe that the traditional four-year cycle related to Bitcoin's halving schedule may have begun to break down, being replaced by a longer, institution-driven bull market, predicting a potential cycle peak close to $200,000 in 2027, with a long-term target of around $1 million by 2033.
Looking even further, ARK Invest's own research estimated Bitcoin's market cap to be about $16 trillion by 2030 under baseline conditions. Based on current supply, this equates to approximately $750,000 to $800,000 per Bitcoin, primarily driven by what the institution describes as Bitcoin's role as digital gold, as well as adoption at institutional and sovereign levels.
In simple terms, the bullish scenario suggests a short-term range of $100,000 to $150,000 by year-end, while much higher numbers correspond to the latter half of this decade.
The bearish scenario, however, relies more on charts themselves than any single analyst model.
Support is roughly maintained around the $58,000 to $60,000 range, which is also consistent with the range reported in multiple ETF fund flow reports for most of June.
If confirmed that the price falls below this range, it may drop further toward $55,000; whereas if it again stands above around $65,800 where Bitcoin was at the beginning of June, it would be the clearest signal yet indicating that the downtrend may have ended.
Simply put, this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction is not just a single number but a range: the lower point is around $55,000, while the upper could be $150,000 or higher, depending on which group of analysts you find more convincing.
Why Two Banks Can Look at the Same Bitcoin Chart Yet Arrive at a $50,000 Difference
For newcomers to cryptocurrency, it may be confusing that two large banks can look at the same Bitcoin chart yet give conclusions that differ by $50,000 for its December price.
This disparity often depends on which piece of the puzzle each analyst values most.
Standard Chartered's model heavily relies on ETF fund flow data, as Kendrick has stated that after the slowing of corporate treasury purchases, future increases in Bitcoin's price will realistically depend on this single channel.
On the other hand, Bernstein's model places more emphasis on the perspective that the traditional four-year bull and bear cycles related to Bitcoin's halving schedule may no longer apply, as most trading is now driven by institutions rather than retail investors.
The two frameworks are not necessarily wrong; they simply measure different signals; this is why this July 2026 Bitcoin price prediction references multiple sources instead of selecting a single number as the definite answer.
MEXC Analysis: The Real Bitcoin Signals That Wall Street Has Been Ignoring
Putting competing Bitcoin price predictions together for this year, MEXC's perspective is that the importance of specific dollar figures may be less significant than the patterns these predictions collectively present.
In fact, this has been the third experience of Bitcoin ETFs undergoing sharp fund outflows followed by a sudden and relatively swift reversal since 2026.
The first round of this cycle occurred in January and February when billions of dollars flowed out within weeks, followed by a rapid rebound in the last few days of February due to returning institutional purchases.
The second round occurred in April, where according to ETF fund flow tracking data, Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $2.4 billion in inflows that month, making it one of the strongest single months since Bitcoin's peak in October 2025.
The third round is the one that has just concluded, with continuous fund outflows for 13 days from May 15 to June 3, pulling about $4.4 billion from the funds. After a brief easing at the beginning of June, the high inflation data released on June 25 led to renewed outflows, pushing June to record net outflows of $4.06 billion, the largest single-month redemption scale since these products launched in January 2024.
The aggregated holding data compiled by Galaxy Research adds an interesting dimension to this round of fund outflows.
Sales primarily came from hedge funds and brokerages. Hedge funds reduced their Bitcoin ETF holdings by about 31,400 BTC, or a 39% decrease; brokerages cut about 18,800 BTC, a 53% reduction, with Jane Street alone reducing about 10,800 BTC.
Morgan Stanley closed out about 8,300 BTC worth of positions, but this action was related to the launch of its own Bitcoin fund rather than a loss of confidence in Bitcoin itself.
Banks, however, were operating in the opposite direction. JPMorgan increased its holdings by about 3,000 BTC, and Wells Fargo added around 4,000 BTC to its positions; during the same period, the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala also bought over 1,100 BTC.
Overall, this is not a unified institutional retreat but rather a situation where one type of investor is selling while another type is quietly buying. For Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions, this divergence is more important than merely looking at the headline numbers of fund outflows.
If the three rounds of cycle patterns we saw earlier this year continue to hold, what traders should be tracking is possibly not which analyst's price target will be closest to reality in the end.
What truly matters is whether new fund inflows will return with the same strength as in April, or if the current round of outflows will extend into a fourth drop before the end of the year.
Compared to any single number in this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction, this is the most crucial short-term signal to watch for the remainder of the month.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction for July 2026?
According to Standard Chartered and Bernstein, most Wall Street predictions are broadly centered between $58,000 on the downside and between $100,000 and $150,000 by year's end.
Has the Bitcoin price bottomed out in 2026?
No one can be certain, but the $58,000 to $59,000 range has held support during several sell-offs this year.
What is Standard Chartered's Bitcoin price prediction?
Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick has a target price of $100,000 for the end of 2026, down from the previous $150,000 prediction, but he has not adjusted since February.
What caused the Bitcoin price collapse in June 2026?
A record monthly outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, combined with general market concerns that interest rates will remain elevated for longer, drove most of the decline.
Will the Bitcoin price recover in 2026?
Both Standard Chartered and Bernstein still expect Bitcoin to recover before year-end, though they have a significant disagreement on how high BTC can go.
Is it possible for Bitcoin to reach $1 million?
This goal would only appear in the most optimistic long-term models, such as ARK Invest's 2030 scenario; it is not a short-term target for 2026.
Conclusion
The outlook for Bitcoin in the remaining time of July essentially depends on the tug-of-war between two forces: one being a month with heavy ETF selling pressure, and the other being several large banks that still refuse to abandon their bullish targets for the year.
Standard Chartered's $100,000 prediction and Bernstein's $150,000 prediction are at opposite ends of the recovery speed assessment, but both institutions have not abandoned the view that BTC will close significantly higher than the early July levels in 2026.
Regardless of which final number ends up being closer to reality, the true variable to watch from now until the year's end is the speed of ETF fund inflows, rather than any single analyst's most eye-catching target price.
For traders hoping to track Bitcoin's current price in real-time rather than waiting for the next market news, MEXC's BTC real-time price page continuously updates throughout the day.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
