🚨After pulling the market value, the stablecoin market is still highly concentrated. For Open USD to truly change the market landscape, it must surpass a very high liquidity threshold.

Let's hypothesize a bit about Open USD's launch——

🔺To enter the current top ten stablecoins, it needs a supply exceeding about $1.42B;

🔺To enter the top five, it needs to exceed about $4.63B;

🔺To enter the top three, it needs to exceed about $10.03B;

🔺To truly threaten the size of $USDC, it needs to approach or exceed $73.34B.

This cannot be achieved through announcements alone; there must be real enterprise settlements, exchange liquidity, DeFi collateral scenarios, and a closed loop for fiat in and out.

Additionally, the shortcomings of OpenUSD are quite obvious:

Having a list of 140+ seems impressive, but as the alliance grows, decision-making slows down; this is a consensus. When quick handling of risk control, on-chain risks, and regulatory responses is needed, governance becomes more complex;

Thus, the real determinants of success are actually only Stripe, Coinbase, Visa, and BlackRock, and how much real traffic they can channel.

The best comparison here is actually $USDG ——

USDG is also a profit-sharing stablecoin, promoted by Paxos in collaboration with partners like Robinhood, Kraken, and Galaxy.

Currently, $USDG has reached a market value of about $2.98B, ranking 7th among stablecoins, proving that profit-sharing + alliance distribution is a viable path.

But it also proves that even if the model is correct, entering the mainstream stablecoin tier won't automatically replace $USDC, as there is still a gap of more than an order of magnitude.

The upper limit of OpenUSD should definitely be higher than that of USDG; let's wait for the data after the launch:

Real supply, sustainable liquidity, transparent compliant reserves, and so on.

Circle may need to find ways to provide benefits in the future.

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