On July 1, 2026, while the market was focused on Wash's speech at the European Central Bank forum, it was being torn between two seemingly contradictory mainlines: one was an industry bull market driven by AI storage demand, with Goldman Sachs just raising Kioxia's 12-month price target to 116,000 yen, predicting the NAND price increase cycle would last at least until mid-2027, with supply and demand tightness exceeding expectations, implying that capital expenditures in computing power and storage would stay high for longer; the other was the renewed tightening of global monetary policy, with the U.S. core PCE rising by about 3.4%, far above the 2% target, and Wash emphasizing at the June meeting that "inflation must be pushed back to 2%." Analysts generally bet that the Federal Reserve could tighten further, with ING's Chris Turner stating plainly that as long as Wash continues to emphasize "price stability," the dollar would remain strong. The strong dollar and high real interest rates have already left marks on asset prices: gold fell back below $4,000 per ounce, dropping about 14% in the second quarter, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Analysts at Saxo Bank pointed out insufficient buying, with even $4,000 temporarily failing to hold; the Central Bank of Russia also indicated that further rate cuts had become limited under pressure from the fuel market and its secondary effects, echoing the environment where "global central banks find it generally difficult to ease further." Historically, a strong dollar and rising real interest rates often imply pressure on the valuation of gold and high-risk assets, yet now there is an added long-term bullish new curve for AI storage: funds are locked in dollar assets by high rates and hawkish expectations, while also being attracted by rising NAND prices and semiconductor earnings expectations, forcing cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH to shift from a "safe-haven narrative" and simple liquidity trading to reconstructing risk premiums and trading structures around interest rate paths, dollar strength, and AI capital expenditure rhythms.

Goldman Sachs Bets on NAND Surge: AI Capital Expenditures and On-chain Funds

As the market focused on the European Central Bank forum waiting for Wash's phrasing, another timeline had already been captured by Goldman Sachs in their research report: the expansion of AI data centers has caused the supply-demand tension in the NAND market to "exceed previous expectations," directly extending the price increase cycle to at least mid-2027. Kioxia, as a critical global NAND supplier, has seen its 12-month price target raised to 116,000 yen, which is not a simple stock recommendation but a pricing of a capital expenditure cycle centered on storage amidst AI — server computing power is merely a flashy story at the front end; what truly determines profits and valuations is the continuous demand for storage expansion behind each data center. As long as AI applications continue to iterate and the volume of data for training and inference continues to swell, the prosperity of NAND is locked in a longer time dimension, hard-sown to produce a technology growth curve amid the macro backdrop of "high rates pressuring valuations."

This extended AI capital expenditure cycle has directly reinforced the preference for "tech growth assets" at the asset allocation level, spilling over from traditional equity markets to on-chain funds and related narrative tokens. Historical experience is clear: each tech growth cycle is usually accompanied by a rise in overall risk appetite, enhancing the performance of high-beta assets; when sectors like semiconductors and data centers still have certain earnings upgrades in a high-rate environment, portfolios begin to reorder weights around "growth certainty." Some funds chase Kioxia-type AI hardware targets in U.S. and Japanese stocks, while another portion of the risk budget seeks high elasticity vehicles for the same narrative on-chain — from AI-themed tokens to treating BTC and ETH as a "basket of tech risk assets," risk premiums start to pull each other across the two markets. If the earnings and valuations of AI hardware stocks continue to realize, there will be heightened tolerance for high beta in the equity markets, and on-chain funds will be bolder in extending duration and increasing narrative positions; conversely, if the NAND bull market falls short of expectations, the risk premiums of tech growth will contract, equally suppressing the "tech asset" pricing dimensions of BTC and ETH. Moving forward, the relative performance of BTC and ETH will depend on how the market categorizes crypto assets under the combination of "high rates + AI storage bull market" — either as defensive liquidity positions or as high-beta tech assets priced alongside Kioxia and other AI hardware.

Wash's Hawkish Signal: BTC/ETH under Strong Dollar Pressure

During the first rate-setting meeting in June, Wash clearly set the tone right away as chair — inflation must return to the 2% target. This is not just a slogan but a direct response to current data: the core PCE rose by about 3.4%, significantly above the target, indicating that price pressures are sticky. Analysts at Saxo Bank pointed out that under such inflation trajectories, investors still expect the Fed may tighten further when inflation rises again, viewing high rates as a "necessary evil" rather than a temporary interruption. With this backdrop, as the market enters July 1, all eyes are on Wash's every word at the ECB forum — if he maintains the hawkish tone of the meeting, placing "price stability" at the core of the directional signal, the "firm dollar" described by ING's Chris Turner will become the macro backdrop that the crypto market must confront.

A strong dollar, combined with high real rates, means that BTC and ETH must simultaneously endure pressures from both mainlines. Firstly, viewed as assets seen as "dollar substitutes," their inflation hedging and currency diversification narrative will be assigned a greater discount in a world where the Fed firmly maintains the 2% target and dollar asset yields are attractive, making cross-border funds more inclined to stay in high-yielding cash and short-duration dollar assets rather than turning to on-chain positions. Secondly, historical experiences have already replayed in the gold price during the second quarter of 2026: in a phase of rising real rates and strong dollar, gold fell below $4,000, recording a quarterly decline of about 14%, and high-risk asset valuations typically get pressured simultaneously while discount rates rise and financing costs increase, constricting all future cash flow and forward narrative pricing space. In the current narrative, BTC and ETH are both treated as high-beta tech assets and reliant on leverage and forward expectations, making them susceptible to finding a new pricing balance under the dual squeeze of "devaluation of the dollar substitute story" and "high-leverage assets forced to de-risk," should Wash release further hawkish signals.

Gold's Disastrous Quarter: Safe-haven Funds Moving between Gold and On-chain

In the second quarter, gold fell from previous highs back below $4,000 per ounce, with a quarterly drop of about 14%, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Analysts at Saxo Bank bluntly stated that current buying is insufficient, with the market unable to establish $4,000/ounce as an effective support level; under the backdrop where investors expect the Fed may further tighten monetary policy due to inflation rebounding, the real interest rate path has been raised again, historically suppressing the valuations of non-yielding assets, with gold bearing the brunt, and the traditional "safe-haven anchor" forced to accept discounts. This recent failure of gold prices essentially reflects that when core PCE remains in a sticky range of about 3.4% and Fed Chair Wash repeatedly emphasizes the 2% inflation target, the market's expectation for "high rates for longer" is rewriting the structure of safe-haven assets.

As gold loses critical price levels under the combined assault of a strong dollar and high real rates, safe-haven funds do not disappear but begin to reassess costs and narratives between "physical gold" and "on-chain assets." The long-existing crypto market narrative of "Bitcoin as digital gold" — capped supply, decoupling from sovereign credit — may be reconsidered for valuation at a moment when gold's safe-haven function is under attack: on one hand, bitcoin is also a non-yielding asset and will theoretically face discount pressures from rising real interest rates; on the other hand, under a hypothetical scenario where Wash continues releasing hawkish signals but fails to bring inflation back to 2%, the demand for "scarce assets to hedge long-term currency devaluation" may simultaneously differentiate from gold and on-chain. For the BTC/ETH combination, this means a subtle rearrangement of allocation relationships: if the safe-haven logic rises, the dollar strengthens but inflation expectations remain stubborn, funds are more likely to prioritize increasing exposure to BTC, regarded as "digital gold," while relatively weakening the weight of ETH that is inclined towards growth and tech narratives. The entire repricing process concerning rates and inflation is integrating both gold and mainstream on-chain assets into the same macro safe-haven and risk appetite curve.

Central Bank of Russia Tightens Spaces: Emerging Markets and Crypto's Spread Game

As gold and on-chain assets are placed back on the same macro curve, the spreads and currency risks of emerging markets are starting to occupy a higher weight in pricing. Recently, the Central Bank of Russia clearly stated that, in the context of developments in the fuel market and its secondary effects, the room for further rate cuts has shrunk, echoing the hawkish or paused easing stances of central banks around the world: the uncertainty of energy prices is reshaping the inflation trajectory, forcing central banks to be more concerned about the tail risks of "re-inflation." For local investors, this means it is difficult for nominal interest rates to decrease while real rates and exchange rate fluctuations may rise simultaneously, making the risk-reward of traditional bonds and local currency assets less calculable within the squeeze of high interest rates and currency devaluation.

Historically, once emerging markets enter a phase of rising inflation or currency pressure, they are often accompanied by capital outflows and severe asset price fluctuations. During periods of tightened capital controls, residents repeatedly utilize on-chain assets for cross-border value transfer or hedging. Rising rates limit local leveraged speculation, but the exchange rate and regulatory uncertainties raise demand for "portable safe-haven assets." BTC is thus more easily viewed as insurance against local currency and policy risks, while ETH is seen more as a risk asset tied to tech and growth expectations, which gives it higher beta and weaker safe-haven attributes in such environments. As central banks, including Russia, emphasize the difficulty of further easing, the focus of the emerging markets spread story is shifting from "earning interest" to "hedging": every slight adjustment in rates and capital controls leaves traces of funds moving from local currencies to BTC, treating ETH more cautiously. This dual game of spreads and regulation is becoming an important macro variable for distinguishing prices between BTC and ETH.

AI Bull Market Hedging Against Rate Hike Storm

At this juncture of July 1, 2026, pricing BTC/ETH is no longer a single-line logic, but rather being simultaneously driven by two mainlines: one is Goldman Sachs raising the price target for Kioxia, expecting the NAND price increase cycle to last at least until mid-2027's AI storage capital expenditure cycle, rewritten on-chain as "tech growth premium"; the other is Wash emphasizing in the June rate-setting meeting the need to push inflation from about 3.4% core PCE back to the 2% target, interpreted by the market on the eve of the European Central Bank forum as a hawkish anchor suggesting that discount rates will remain high for a long time. The former boosts overall risk appetite for high-beta tech assets, allowing BTC, especially ETH that is more deeply tied to tech narratives, to benefit from cross-asset funds' repricing of "the new generation of growth assets;" the latter exerts pressure through a strong dollar and high real interest rates, projecting part of the scenario where gold falls below $4,000 and records its worst quarterly performance since 2013 onto the valuation discount of crypto assets, making its macro hedging attributes perform more like pressured risk assets in the current period. The Central Bank of Russia's indication that further cuts are limited under pressure from fuel prices and secondary inflation reinforces the backdrop where "global easing is difficult," resulting in BTC being priced more as a flow of funds escaping under the high rates + capital control environment, while ETH remains highly correlated with AI on-chain capital expenditure sentiment. Moving forward, each of Wash's statements regarding "price stability" at the ECB forum, whether the NAND price cycle will extend to mid-2027 as Goldman Sachs expects, and the performances of gold and emerging market assets under the strong dollar and high interest rate combination will jointly determine whether on-chain funds will continue to pay a higher premium for AI growth or shift to a macro hedging position primarily based on BTC.

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