This question is very good. I am not sure if my answer is correct, but this is indeed what I think:

1. The recent surge in WTI before the conflict between the United States and Iran is related to the 2022 war between Russia and Ukraine. As the war progressed, oil prices began to decline from their peak because OPEC and other oil-producing countries released more supply, and the market gradually absorbed the war premium.

2. The last significant rise before this was from 2011 to 2014, mainly for two reasons: one was the war in Libya, and another, similar to now, was the nuclear sanctions on Iran. Later, it was because of the rise of U.S. shale oil, which led to oversupply and subsequently lowered oil prices.

3. The substantial increase before that was from 2007 to 2009, a period when OPEC significantly cut production to stabilize oil prices after the financial crisis. In 2009, OPEC's crude oil production was 2.5 million barrels per day less than in 2008, directly reducing market supply.

These are the reasons for the three significant surges. Essentially, they are all due to geopolitical tensions or sanctions on oil-producing countries, with the core reason being insufficient supply leading to price increases. There has hardly been a "violent rebound" when supply was ample.

Therefore, if the conflict between the United States and Iran ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the first thing to disappear will be the war premium. Oil prices may not necessarily fall below pre-war levels because OPEC can reduce supply to stabilize prices. However, before new supply constraints arise, the likelihood of a violent rebound is not high.

So, I tend to believe it is reasonable for WTI to return to the range near pre-war levels between the U.S. and Iran. Whether it can continue to surge later will depend on whether the supply side tightens again. Significant fluctuations in oil prices usually do not occur when supply is very loose.

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