Introduction: On the Same Day, Two "Myths" Wobble Simultaneously

On June 29, Bitcoin struggled around the $60,000 mark, and the cryptocurrency stock market received two disruptive signals: Strategy announced the end of the "buy and hold" era through an SEC filing, and BlackRock's IBIT signaled a loosening of the narrative surrounding "institutional buy-in" with a set of historically poor monthly data. Together, these two events paint a similar picture: the two pillars that once supported Bitcoin's price are now both under strain.

1. Strategy: From "Buy and Hold" to "Active Asset Management"

On June 29, Strategy announced a new capital management framework, officially authorizing a "Bitcoin Monetization Program" that allows the company to periodically sell up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin, with the proceeds intended to supplement dollar reserves, pay preferred stock dividends and interest, and cover other corporate obligations. The company's cash reserves have risen to approximately $2.55 billion, and management will maintain a minimum coverage of 12 months as a baseline.

The key to understanding this framework is to distinguish the distance between "authorization" and "execution." The $1.25 billion sale authorization is a legal tool granted to management, which does not imply that the company must or will immediately sell Bitcoin. The company disclosed that no new Bitcoin was purchased this week, maintaining a total holding of 847,363 BTC, and any actual sales will be executed "periodically" based on market conditions, liquidity needs, tax implications, and management's assessment of shareholder value.

However, the signaling implications of the authorization cannot be ignored. Strategy's mNAV fell below 1.0 on June 27, marking the first time the overall market valuation dipped below its Bitcoin holding value, indicating that issuing new shares to buy Bitcoin at current price levels would not only fail to enrich each share's BTC content, but would also dilute existing shareholder equity—this is the core reason prompting management to expand their toolbox from "only issuing shares to buy Bitcoin" to "selling Bitcoin when necessary."

The STRC dividend rate was also raised to 12%, another stabilizing signal released by Strategy on the same day—by enhancing the attractiveness of holding STRC, the company attempts to narrow the current approximately $25 discount to par value, indirectly restoring the effectiveness of its preferred stock financing channel.

2. IBIT: The Largest Bitcoin ETF Becomes the Largest Redemption Outlet

BlackRock's IBIT recorded approximately $3.3 billion in net outflows throughout June, accounting for 75% of the total $4.06 billion outflow from the entire U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market during the same period, marking the largest single-month net outflow for this product since its launch in January 2024.

The structural significance of this figure lies in the mechanism it reveals: as of the week ending June 26, the net outflow over seven consecutive trading days set the record for the longest daily continuous outflow in the ETF's history; the single-day highest outflow occurred on June 25, with a total market net outflow of $691.7 million, the majority of which came from IBIT. According to Bespoke Investment Group data, IBIT holders faced an average paper loss of about 40%—these holders had previously held approximately 30% in paper profits in mid-2025. The net asset size decreased from the highest approximately $60.77 billion since launch to about $44.42 billion.

The 73% concentration of outflows from IBIT reveals a counterintuitive structural reality: because IBIT is the largest and most liquid Bitcoin exposure tool in the market, when institutions or large investors decide to reduce their positions, it naturally becomes the most convenient exit route. IBIT's scale amplified the credibility of the buying narrative during the bull market, and it similarly magnified the visibility of the selling pressure in the bear market. Once a product that helped package "institutional demand" into a succinct bullish narrative, it is now effectively running this narrative in reverse.

The actions of Strategy and IBIT on June 29 together pose a question mark on the institutional narrative for Bitcoin in the first half of 2026. Strategy declared its buying engine has entered "maintenance mode" through the authorization to sell, while IBIT announced that institutional investors are exiting at a record pace with historical maximum monthly outflow data. These do not mark the end of Bitcoin's long-term narrative but rather a phased correction of this narrative under dual pressures of current price and financing. Whether Bitcoin’s support at $60,000 can hold will determine if this correction is temporary or the beginning of a deeper descent.

Data Source: https://bbx.com/ Cryptocurrency Concept Stock Information Database, compiled based on the announcements of globally listed companies and SEC/TSE disclosure documents from yesterday.

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