A friend left me a message saying it's been a long time since I talked about oil and asked for my views on the current situation between the United States and Iran.

In fact, I've said everything that needs to be said countless times, the US and Iran are the kind that "bark fiercely at each other," but "can't bite each other," essentially both are trying to secure the best deal for themselves, but the bottom line is they will not engage in a full-scale war, which does not align with the interests of either side.

For the US, high inflation restricts the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, preventing the American market from thriving fully. If American spending remains high, it won't support Trump, and the Republican Party will suffer during the midterm elections.

For Iran, the US blockade of ports is very painful. In a direct confrontation between the US and Iran, Iran will certainly not have the upper hand, even though it is a religious state, its hard power still exists. The only strategy is to continuously delay the US's line of attack, making it uncomfortable for the US, but in the end, the ruling class will bear the brunt of any conflict.

Taking a step back, even if a conflict does break out, the rise in oil prices due to the Strait of Hormuz will be a global phenomenon, the inflation triggered will also be global, and ultimately, it's the governments around the world that will suffer the consequences, with Iran under much more pressure than the US.

With this foundation clarified, the price of WTI only has to be assessed in terms of whether it's worth shorting, without doubting the shorting action. For me, $72 is not worth it, the downward space to $65 is not much, and if it reaches $75, I may be a bit interested.

So I haven't taken action, and as long as there's a hint of movement, the funding rate for WTI is bound to turn positive, and earning from the funding rate is also a good thing.

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