1. After the settlement, the market experiences wide fluctuations, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.
After the quarterly options settlement, the market enters a negative Gamma environment. Today, BTC showed a V-shaped movement: it dipped to a low of $58,888 in the morning, falling below the $60,000 mark, and then quickly rebounded above $60,000, with an intraday fluctuation exceeding 2%. ETH also fell to $1,548, while SOL briefly dropped below the $70 integral level. By noon, the market had around $173 million in liquidation amounts over 24 hours, with more than 60,000 people liquidated; the proportion of long positions liquidated exceeded 80%, and the deleveraging process continues.
2. Marginal easing of geopolitical risks and the strengthening dollar suppress the overall market.
The US and Iran have agreed to cease mutual attacks and will hold talks in Doha on June 30 to resolve disputes, temporarily easing Middle Eastern conflict risks. However, the US dollar index has risen more than 2.7% this month, stabilizing above the 100 mark. Coupled with inflation remaining sticky and expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts being significantly delayed, global risk assets are generally under pressure, with gold hitting a seven-month low, and the crypto market also experiencing pressure from tightening liquidity.
3. Continued outflow of ETF funds, weak institutional buying.
The Bitcoin spot ETF has seen six consecutive weeks of net outflows, with the total asset management scale of ETFs in the market declining from a peak of over $115 billion to approximately $97 billion. Grayscale transferred 8,697 ETH (about $13.77 million) to Coinbase today, which the market generally interprets as routine custody operations, providing limited support for the market.
4. Industry warnings and on-chain signals.
The Bank for International Settlements warned that AI-related crypto tokens carry valuation bubble risks, suggesting that future funds may concentrate further on blue-chip assets like Bitcoin. On-chain data shows that more than half of Bitcoin addresses have entered an unrealized loss state. Historically, this range often corresponds to a phase of bottoming out, but retail investors' willingness to bottom-fish remains weak, and trading volumes continue to decrease.
5. Institutions hold predominantly bearish views.
10x Research believes the bottom range for Bitcoin is likely around $55,000, with a timeframe concentrated between August and October; BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is even more bearish, predicting the price may reach $40,000 within six months.
II. Overall Market Assessment
The current market is in a low-level, wide fluctuation phase within a medium-term downward trend. The daily moving average structure remains bearish, with the $60,000 mark transitioning from previous support to a short-term bull-bear dividing line. The passive hedging effect of market makers in a negative Gamma environment continues, significantly amplifying price fluctuations, and the rebound lacks sustained volume support.
The main strategy direction is to primarily focus on shorting against the trend, with minor long positions in oversold conditions for rebounds. All long positions should be treated as short-term trades, with strict stop-loss settings to avoid holding overnight positions.
III. BTC Market Analysis and Operational Strategy
Current Market Status
BTC's midday price is about $59,800, having completed a weak rebound after hitting a low of $58,888 in the morning. The hourly level is in a consolidation pattern after declining, with insufficient rebound momentum, and the daily bearish structure remains intact.
Key Levels
Strong Resistance: $60,200 - $60,500 Psychological level + Gamma resistance zone, short-term bull-bear dividing line
Secondary Resistance: $61,500 Previous platform pressure level
Short-term Support: $59,000 Intraday lower boundary
Strong Support: $58,200 - $58,500 Recent low support area, a drop below will open up downward space
Operational Strategy
1. Primary Strategy: Short on rebounds
If prices rebound to the $60,200-$60,500 range and stall, short positions can be entered, with a stop loss set above $61,000 and the first take profit target at $59,000, with an additional target at $58,200 if broken.
2. Alternative Strategy: Short-term long (small position)
Lightly buy on clear signals of stabilizing after a pullback to $58,500-$58,800, with a stop loss below $58,000 and taking profits in the $59,500-$60,000 range incrementally.
3. Mid-term View: The medium-term downward trend remains unchanged until effectively stabilizing above $62,500; if there is a valid break below $58,000, the next target will be towards the $55,000 range.
IV. ETH Market Analysis and Operational Strategy
Current Market Status
ETH's midday price is about $1,565, having entered weak fluctuation after hitting a low of $1,548 in the morning. The overall trend is correlated with BTC and relatively weaker, with declining rebound volume and the bearish dominance pattern unchanged.
Key Levels
Strong Resistance: $1,590 - $1,600 Psychological level + resonance resistance from previous platform
Secondary Resistance: $1,650 Mid-term bull-bear dividing line
Short-term Support: $1,550 Intraday low point support
Strong Support: $1,510 - $1,520 Previous low support area, a drop below will create new lows
Operational Strategy
1. Focus on short positions
If prices rebound to the $1,585-$1,600 range and face resistance, short positions can be taken, with a stop loss above $1,615 and taking profits first at $1,550, with further downside targets at $1,520-$1,510.
2. Short-term long play (light position)
If there is stability after a pullback to $1,545-$1,550, take small long positions, with a stop loss below $1,535 and taking profits near $1,580.
3. Breakout response: If there is a valid break below $1,510, follow the trend to short, targeting $1,450; if firmly stabilizing above $1,650, the short-term structure turns strong, and light positions can follow long.
SOL's midday price is about $71.5, having briefly fallen below the $70 mark in the morning, then slightly recovering with the overall market. As a high-beta asset, SOL's volatility is significantly greater than BTC/ETH, currently remaining in a weak downward structure.
Key Levels
Strong Resistance: $74 - $75 Previous platform + short-term moving average pressure
Secondary Resistance: $78 Mid-term bull-bear dividing line
Short-term Support: $69 - $70 Psychological support level
Strong Support: $68 Annual low point, a drop below will open up downward space
Operational Strategy
1. Mainly short positions
If the price rebounds to $74-$75 faces resistance, short positions can be taken, with a stop loss above $77 and taking profits first at $70-$71, with further downside targets at $68.
2. Low long alternative
If the price pulls back to $69-$70 and stabilizes, take small long positions, with a stop loss below $67.5 and taking profits near $73-$74.
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