Cryptocurrency Market Secondary Fund MVC June Market Observation Overview

1/ This monthly report will focus on our thoughts on the current accumulation of market risks. To put it simply, we believe that disruptions in the global supply chain since 2022 have gradually trapped the economic resilience and monetary fiscal policy autonomy of countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Europe in a predicament, silently accumulating momentum for future shocks in the global capital markets;

2/ The market trend has profoundly revealed that liquidity exhaustion, apart from AI and certain non-ferrous industries, is actually occurring. Although we do not believe that a bubble collapse is imminent, we have observed that the aforementioned fragile countries are eagerly rushing to increase concentrated trading, which is bound to end poorly under the current international political and economic situation;

3/ For the cryptocurrency market, the fragile world line has quickly gathered into a thick cloud above the price since the end of last year. At this moment, we genuinely need to contemplate the possibility of MSTR continuously selling BTC for the first time, and the distant demand further enhances the cost-effectiveness of BTC as a hedge for short strategies against other assets. In the medium term, the outlook is quite tumultuous.

Overall Market Conditions and Market Trend Review and Commentary

From a technical analysis perspective, the market has reached the mid to late stage of concentrated trading, and we can see:

① The Japanese and South Korean stock markets, which have consistently been supported by national will through transfer payments, have reached an important pressure point in a long-term channel:

② The US Dollar Index has broken through a pressure point it has faced for nearly a year:

③ While the 10-year US Treasury bonds remain stable, the 2-year Treasury bonds have formed a certain upward trend:

At this moment, we see that SK Hynix's leveraged funds have surpassed Tesla's scale, and massive white-collar workers are rapidly losing the valuation premium of unit human capital, being forced into the endless game of the capital market. Meanwhile, many countries deeply bound to the global trade system, trusting capitalist globalization, are paying the price for past trust: the collapse of the global supply chain and the disintegration of international trade alliances will greatly harm their fiscal monetary system's ability to actually regulate the economy. After all, printing money cannot produce oil, nor can it produce copper mines, let alone optical modules. The division of labor in globalization has ultimately become the rope around their own necks.

One day, when liquidity unexpectedly contracts again in anticipation or substance, a large number of leveraged funds will begin to redeem liquidity algorithmically starting from Japan and South Korea's trading hours, and this impact will inevitably transmit to the global fear index and stir further waves. Moreover, the underlying turmoil in the country and the fragile economy under long-term self-destructive dependencies will be further exposed in times of turbulence, intensifying emotional fluctuations. This will not end beautifully.

For the non-ferrous metals we have been tracking, gold and silver will be constrained in the short term under such macro pressures by the strong will of various countries to exchange dollars for commodity inventories, a point clearly seen in the central banks led by Turkey. However, this shock is precisely the starting deep squat before the true upward wave of gold and silver, and the complete failure of Hormuz is just the prelude to the dollar's loosening; the market shocks after interest rate hikes will ultimately lead to a future of easing. For copper and many minor metals, the game is even more complex, and we tend to believe that there will be a sweet period when the game around interest rate hike expectations reaches its peak.

Regarding Bitcoin, we need to evaluate for the first time whether MSTR will activate that evil button under the pressure of future cash flow and the possibility of other participants preemptively reducing their holdings of 800,000 BTC, and under the circumstances described above, BTC will evidently find it hard to stand alone. Therefore, we must seriously consider BTC's positioning and tradable direction in this round of risk release; perhaps the bottom of this round will seem unbelievable to everyone at this moment, but a deeper adjustment position is not merely a fantasy in times of panic.

Standing at the beginning of the year, it was difficult to predict the occurrence of Hormuz, and it was hard to anticipate that the global capital market would enter H2 in this manner. Yet, risk accompanies opportunity, and let's encourage each other.

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