Hello everyone, the weekend market had little fluctuation, this rare quiet moment instead made me feel the impulse to calm down and review and deduce. Today, I will write an article sharing some of my insights on the current market, some points may be quite direct, but they are my true thoughts.

1. Why am I firmly convinced that: a "super golden pit" will appear in the second half of 2026?

First, the conclusion: in the second half of this year, Bitcoin is highly likely to form a historical "super bottom." This price might not be seen again for many years to come. If you have been following my articles since late October 2025, you should know that my judgment on the rhythm of this cycle has hardly deviated. (What specific price level will it reach? Stay tuned for my subsequent articles to slowly reveal.)

Back in October last year, when Bitcoin surged to $126,200, I clearly warned in my article: this is the top area of the current cycle! At that time, many people laughed at me, saying I missed the boat, that Bitcoin would rush to $150,000, $180,000, as part of a super cycle. Looking back now, isn't $126,200 the top? The market has already provided the answer.

So, where is this bottom? When will it come?

I judge the range as: June to November 2026. How did I deduce this? Keep reading.

2. Bitcoin halving cycle pattern: history does not simply repeat, but is always remarkably similar.

First, here's a painful truth: Most of those big accounts drawing patterns, channels, and waves likely have technical analysis levels that are actually worse than yours. Thus, my articles rarely discuss technical indicators; instead, they focus on macroeconomics. Unfortunately, the traffic is worrying, as K-lines represent the result of price, not the cause. The real factors determining the big direction of Bitcoin's trend are three hardcore elements: macroeconomic cycle + global liquidity environment + inherent laws of halving.

Let's review the historical performance of Bitcoin after the halving together with Jiang Feng’s viewpoint; the data won't lie:

First halving (November 2012): the top appeared in November 2013 (12 months later), and the bottom appeared in January 2015 (25 months later).

Second halving (July 2016): the top appeared in December 2017 (17 months later), and the bottom appeared in December 2018 (29 months later).

Third halving (May 2020): the top appeared in November 2021 (18 months later), and the bottom appeared in November 2022 (30 months later).

Fourth halving (April 2024): the top appeared in October 2025 (18 months later) ✅ confirmed.

Have you noticed a very stable pattern?

Time after halving until top appears: 12 to 18 months, time after halving until bottom appears: 25 to 30 months.

Following this pattern in reverse: the halving in April 2024, counting forward 25 to 30 months gives us the time window of: June to November 2026. However, a nearly six-month time span is still too broad. We need to combine the macroeconomic "ruler" to further refine this window; keep reading👀

3. Macroeconomics: the biggest "bearish hammer" is on its way in the second half of the year, but the exhaustion of bearishness is the biggest bullish signal.

This next part is very important and is often overlooked by retail investors.

If you think Bitcoin’s rise and fall solely depend on the market makers’ manipulation, you will never escape the fate of being harvested. The real big capital acts according to the Federal Reserve's tone. What is the biggest uncertainty in the market right now? - The shadow of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes is gathering again.

According to the latest prediction data from CME (as of the end of June 2026):

At the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16, 2026, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is as high as 46.8%, the probability of a 50 basis point hike is 12.6%, and the rate hike probability is close to 60%!

You should know that just two months ago, the market was still expecting 2 to 3 rate cuts this year. And now, the pricing has started to lean towards rate hikes. This 180-degree turn in expectations is the fundamental reason for the recent pressure in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets.

Why has the expectation for rate hikes suddenly intensified?

Because US core inflation has exceeded expectations for three consecutive months, energy prices and service costs are running wild without control. Federal Reserve officials have been increasingly hawkish in their statements over the past few weeks, with some even publicly discussing "even if the economy slows down, inflation must be crushed."

This means that in the second half of 2026, global risk assets will face a "stress test":

1. Liquidity contraction: rate hikes mean cheaper money in the market will become scarcer, and leveraged funds will withdraw actively or passively.

2. Risk appetite decline: institutional funds will prioritize selling highly volatile assets (like Bitcoin), shifting towards safe assets like US Treasuries.

3. Chain liquidation risk: if Bitcoin's price continues to decline under the expectation of rate hikes, miners, leveraged longs, and DeFi lending protocols will face liquidation pressure, forming a "decline → liquidation → further decline" death spiral.

   

Therefore, my judgment is: the second half of 2026, especially the period from July to September, will be the most difficult and darkest time for Bitcoin. Market sentiment may be extremely fearful, and I estimate that at that time, the charlatans will be discussing "Bitcoin going to zero" and "the bull market is over."

At that time, it may be the true "diamond bottom."

4. However! Exhaustion of bearishness is the time when the bull market restarts.

Note that this is the most important logical pivot point in the entire article; please read it three times.

Retail investors see the rate hikes, the declines, and feel panic and despair. But seasoned traders who truly understand the macro cycles see the glimmer of dawn after the "exhaustion of bearishness."

1. The end of rate hikes is the starting point of the bull market. History has repeatedly shown that at the end of every rate hike cycle, the market fully digests the impact of the last rate hike, the chips clear in despair, and when market sentiment reaches an "absolute zero point," it often marks the beginning of the new bull market. When everyone confirms "this is the last rate hike," the smartest funds will enter the market in advance to scoop up shares.

2. The halving narrative in the cryptocurrency market continues. In April 2028, Bitcoin will face its fifth halving. Historical patterns tell us that in the 12 to 18 months leading up to each halving, the market will often kickstart the "halving expectation" market after lying at the bottom. The bottom will be in the second half of 2026, recovery in 2027, and a renewed surge ahead of the halving in 2028 - this timeline is almost perfectly aligned.

3. Global liquidity will eventually shift. The Federal Reserve cannot raise rates indefinitely, and the huge interest costs of the US federal government's debt are already overwhelming. By the end of 2026 or early 2027, the US economy will likely show signs of fatigue under sustained pressure, at which point market expectations for "stopping rate hikes" or even "raising rates again" will reignite. Once expectations reverse, global liquidity will flow back to risk assets like a flood, and Bitcoin will be the first asset to surge; if you haven't boarded by the end of this year, you will miss the dividend period once again.

Having reached this point in the article, I want to share a few heartfelt words with everyone.

Why do I say "the second half of 2026 may be the only opportunity for ordinary people to change their fate"?

Because in the financial market, ordinary people who want to make small leaps in their social class rely not on chasing highs and cutting losses every day, but on having the courage to stay calm during critical moments in the macro cycle when others are in panic and to take action when others are in despair.

In the second half of this year, when everyone is cursing the market and cutting their losses to exit, if you can withstand the pressure, gradually buy those battered chips, and then forget your account, patiently hold until around the 2028 halving, you will most likely outperform 90% of people.

But I must remind everyone:

Don’t try to catch the absolute bottom; even deities can't do that. Use a dollar-cost averaging method, divide your funds into 6 to 12 parts, and enter the market gradually between July and November; do not bet all your savings. Use idle money that you won’t need for the next two to three years, that’s the only way you can hold on!

In the second half of 2026, my core deduction path has only one line:

Macroeconomic expectations for interest rate hikes increase → market pressure declines → sentiment is extremely fearful → super bottom forms → exhaustion of bearishness → macro liquidity expectations shift → the bull market quietly starts in 2027-2028, and the bull market peaks in 2029.

This path is my judgment, and merely my judgment. The market is always full of uncertainty; no one can predict it 100%. But this logic, at least to me, is cross-verified through historical patterns, macroeconomics, and market cycles; I am willing to be responsible for my understanding of it.

If you agree with this logic, then in the second half of this year, please control your hands, be patient, prepare your bullets, and wait for that most fearful, darkest, but also brightest moment.

Remember: bull markets are born in despair, grow in hesitation, and end in frenzy. In the second half of 2026, we are heading towards the end of "despair," which is also the starting point of rebirth. May we both hold our positions in the darkness before dawn.

Let's motivate each other; see you at the summit.

These views represent Jiang Feng's personal opinions and do not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks; decisions should be made cautiously.

If my article has inspired you, feel free to like, share, and let more confused friends see it. Your support is my motivation to continuously produce in-depth content!

Written by: Jiang Feng Capital

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