After entering the current cycle, the price of Bitcoin approached its 200-week simple moving average again in late June 2026, as reflected in market data such as AiCoin, demonstrating repeated fluctuations near this long-term moving average. Around June 27, several media outlets quoted cryptocurrency analyst Ali Charts and others, stating that Bitcoin's proximity to the 200-week SMA historically often corresponds with relatively favorable medium to long-term entry observation intervals. Therefore, the current trend is viewed by some as a signal that a bottom may be forming. Over the past decade, the 200-week simple moving average has been repeatedly perceived by the market as a macro bullish-bearish dividing line and a key support area during various bull-bear cycles. Bitcoin has stabilized or rebounded around this level at the end of some bear markets, and this experience has been widely internalized by investors as a technical narrative of a "long-term defense line." Concurrent with discussions about price technical positions, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently expressed optimism about Bitcoin's long-term value while simultaneously harshly criticizing the so-called Strategy preferred stock financing model, believing that such arrangements grant a limited number of investors excessive priority in dividends and liquidation, exacerbating risk mismatch within the cryptocurrency sector due to information asymmetry, which has raised concerns in the industry. Current market discussions revolve around whether Bitcoin is forming a new medium to long-term bottom near the 200-week SMA, and whether complex financing structures like preferred shares are amplifying systemic risk at this cycle juncture, as investors start to overlay the technical price range with the financing environment to assess whether this round of price action is closer to a "new bottom" or a potential continuation trap.

The Battle for Defending the 200-Week Line Over the Years

The so-called 200-week simple moving average is essentially the arithmetic average of weekly closing prices over approximately the past four years, regarded by many participants as Bitcoin's long-term "lifeline" due to its smoothing of short-term fluctuations, roughly reflecting the cost range for long-term holders. When the price remains above this line for a long time, it is usually interpreted as an ongoing macro bullish structure; once it falls significantly and stays below for an extended period, it is viewed as a technical signal that the long-term trend may be reversing.

Since Bitcoin entered the phase of large-scale trading, there have been instances over the past decade around each round of bull-bear transitions where the price approached or even temporarily dropped below the 200-week SMA before rising back above this moving average. Commonly cited examples include the end of the bear market in 2015, late 2018, and during the pandemic impact in 2020. Bitcoin's price around this long-term average has been widely discussed as a stage bottom, and these have been retrospectively summarized as key defenses for "holding the 200-week line." However, this is more a reflection of a consensus observed afterward and does not constitute a definitive causal relationship; historically, there have also been instances of "false breakouts" and "false rebounds" where the price fell below, briefly recovered, but failed to initiate a new long-term rally. According to AiCoin data, the current price is again fluctuating repeatedly near this long-term moving average. Therefore, a more reasonable approach is to view the 200-week SMA as a reference coordinate for evaluating long-term structures rather than a simple mechanical rule equating "hitting the line guarantees a bottom."

Price Close to the 200-Week Line: Bottom Signal or Trap?

According to AiCoin data and various market sources, entering late June 2026, Bitcoin's price has been narrowly fluctuating near its 200-week simple moving average, having neither formed a deep drop similar to past extreme panics nor exhibited a strong rebound far from that level. Instead, it is more of a "walking close to the long-term moving average" oscillation. Analysts like Ali Charts point out that historically, Bitcoin has often constructed stage bottoms near the 200-week SMA region, which the market habitually views as a more favorable long-term entry observation zone. Coupled with the current phase lacking the extreme speculative scenarios seen in the last bull market, they believe that this combination of "technical support + relatively restrained sentiment" provides a basis for the optimistic narrative that a "bottom may form."

However, supporters admit that this optimism is more based on empirical statistics and positional references rather than an immediately verifiable causal relationship. The current path of macro interest rates still carries uncertainty, the timeline for major economies' regulation of the industry is also unclear, and internal events in the cryptocurrency space may trigger new risk appetite contractions at any time. These variables can break the market's expectations for the 200-week line as a "safety net," causing what appears to be a solid technical support to evolve into another intermediate station. Therefore, the assumption of "a bottom is forming" is more reasonably seen as a hypothesis needing time to be tested, rather than a conclusion confirmed by price movements.

Ripple CEO Bullish on Bitcoin but Critiques Preferred Stock Financing

In the same time window where Bitcoin approaches the 200-week moving average and debates about the bottom intensify, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse emphasized in public statements that he remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, believing it holds a "special long-term value position" among crypto assets, acting as a benchmark within the entire asset category. For him, although short-term cyclical volatility remains intense, the longevity logic of Bitcoin over a longer time frame has not been shaken by the current adjustments.

However, Garlinghouse also explicitly criticized the so-called Strategy preferred stock financing model, arguing that arrangements using preferred stock as a vehicle are having negative impacts on the industry ecosystem. His concerns focus on a core viewpoint: preferred stock investors often receive greater protection and yield commitments, while ordinary participants, who are subject to more information asymmetry, bear more asymmetric risks. He views this structural design as exacerbating risk mismatches within the crypto market. Media reports indicate that this statement has sparked discussions in the industry, with some voices interpreting it as a warning against the "over-financial engineering" of current crypto financing environments. The tension formed here is that while he acknowledges Bitcoin's long-term value, he questions whether some financing methods derived from this asset are healthy. This also reminds investors currently focusing on the 200-week line that they should not only look at price curves but also assess whether the underlying funding structures are robust.

How High Return Promises from Preferred Stocks Amplify Crypto Risk

In traditional markets, preferred stocks mean that some investors enjoy "front-row seats" in dividend, liquidation, or repurchase order, and under a clear legal framework with sufficient information disclosure, such arrangements are often seen as a "parameter" of price. However, when transplanted into crypto projects, the Strategy preferred stock financing model reported by the media is criticized for shifting more downside risk onto subsequent participants in an environment of extreme information asymmetry, especially for retail investors with limited ability to understand terms: early holders of preferred rights can preferentially exit in agreed returns, repurchases, or liquidations, while token holders without such preferences passively bear the price volatility and leftover value in the event of project failure.

This same structure impacts price and sentiment asymmetrically during different phases. In a bull market, high dividends or "minimum + floating" preferred stock designs are often packaged as "structured high returns," and during rises in overall risk appetite, the downside of unfavorable liquidation orders for ordinary holders can be easily overlooked, with the excitement of sentiment overshadowing scrutiny of contract details. When the price of Bitcoin approaches the widely watched 200-week simple moving average and the market discusses whether a bottom has formed, if many projects rely on complex preferred stock terms to maintain financing, once the market does not directly reverse but instead tests a second bottom, project parties and early investors with privileges have greater room to safeguard themselves or even exit through terms, while ordinary token holders lacking negotiating power are under the most pressure during price retracements and liquidity contractions. Brad Garlinghouse's criticisms reflect this concern: near significant long-term support lines, excessive pursuit of structured high yield financing can directly affect the distribution of risks among different holders on-chain, thus influencing which projects truly have the endurance to navigate this cycle switch.

What to Watch for Next Under Long-Term Support Lines

During the current round of corrections, the 200-week SMA remains one of the core coordinates for judging Bitcoin's long-term position: Over the past decade, this line has been viewed by the market as a bull-bear dividing line, and emotion reversals have occurred near the phases of inflation in 2015, 2018, and the pandemic impact. According to AiCoin data, this round of price is also fluctuating repeatedly around this level. However, this moving average has never been a "safety line" guaranteeing the establishment of a bottom. Historically, there have also been phases where it significantly fell below this line before stabilizing after a longer period. Therefore, when evaluating the current cost-effectiveness of entering, it is necessary to consider not only "whether it hits the line" but also the financing environment and project quality as a whole: on one hand, analysts like Ali Charts emphasize the long-term position to provide a relatively reasonable observation range; on the other hand, Brad Garlinghouse's criticism of Strategy-style preferred stock financing models warns the market that structural details like terms design and liquidation priorities directly impact the distribution of risks among different holders. Looking ahead, key variables to observe include: Whether Bitcoin can maintain a stable performance in time and space near the 200-week SMA, whether mainstream projects will converge on complex preferred stock arrangements, and how regulatory and public opinions evolve towards such financing models. These signals will collectively shape the market's next judgment on "whether this is a long-term bottom."

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