The current Bitcoin mining industry is experiencing the most complex structural adjustment since the protocol's inception. Although the price of Bitcoin remains around $61,000 and the overall network hash rate is close to 1 ZH/s, near historical highs, miner profitability continues to deteriorate. Multiple indicators, including production costs, fee income, hash rate expansion, and industry security budgets, all show that the current mining operations are running close to breakeven, and the 2028 halving may further accelerate industry liquidation.

From the current data, the problems facing the mining industry stem not only from the reduction in block subsidies due to halving but also from the revenue structure of the industry that has yet to complete its transition to fee-driven income. Meanwhile, an increasing number of mining companies are beginning to shift from being pure Bitcoin producers to becoming infrastructure operators, energy operators, and AI/HPC computing infrastructure providers. In this process, the focus of competition in mining is gradually shifting from hash rate expansion to business model upgrades.

Profitability Under Pressure: Mining Economic Model Enters Reevaluation Stage

The PoW difficulty/output model shows that the current production cost floor for Bitcoin is approximately $46,744. Historically, whenever the price drops to this level, it often means that marginal miners begin to exit the market, corresponding to a periodic bottom formation. However, what is more noteworthy now is that miner income has shown a persistent divergence from the price of Bitcoin for the first time in history.

Data shows that at an approximate Bitcoin price of $61,000, the theoretical daily income of all miners should be about $78 million, while the actual income is only about $33 million, indicating that theoretical income is approximately 136% higher than actual income. At the same time, the overall network hash rate is approaching 1 ZH/s, yet fee income continues to remain sluggish, currently averaging only about $220,000 per day, far below the approximately $9.7 million implied by historical relationships. As halving continues to compress new issuance, Bitcoin mining is facing increasing profitability pressure.

From Mining to Infrastructure: The 2028 Halving May Drive Industry Restructuring

In addition to declining income, mining companies also face increasing cost pressure. By 2025, the total revenue of Bitcoin miners is expected to be about $17.2 billion, with electricity costs alone totaling about $12.3 billion, accounting for 71.5% of total revenue; global investment in mining hardware is around $4.5 billion. Comprehensive estimates indicate that the overall breakeven price for the industry is approximately $65,000, which means that at current price levels, relying solely on mining operations makes it difficult to maintain an ideal profitability level.

It is expected that post-halving in 2028, the production cost floor for Bitcoin will further rise to about $93,289, leading to a faster concentration of the industry towards a few large, capital-rich mining companies with diversified revenue sources. Compared to traditional miners relying on block rewards, institutional mining companies with low-cost electricity resources, AI/HPC computing hosting businesses, and stronger balance sheets may gain a stronger competitive advantage in the new cycle.

Overall, the Bitcoin mining industry is undergoing a profound transformation from “mining business” to “infrastructure business.” As block subsidies continue to decline, relying solely on Bitcoin production becomes inadequate to sustain long-term profitability; the industry will increasingly depend on diversified income sources such as energy management, AI/HPC computing hosting, and more. For investors, what truly warrants attention is not just the halving itself, but which mining companies can successfully complete the transition of their business models and establish more resilient competitive advantages in the new industry landscape.

The above viewpoints are derived from BIT on Target, Contact us for the complete report from BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

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