When mNAV is less than 1, does MSTR turn from a buying machine into a skilled seller?
In the past few days, the drop in bitcoin:native has left Strategy's boss Michael Saylor silent, while the debate surrounding $MSTR and $STRC has become even more intense.
The focus a couple of days ago was all about STRC's dividend payment or whether STRC is the LUNA model; many articles have discussed this, so I won’t repeat it. Today we need to talk about a new topic that hasn't been discussed in a long time: the topic of mNAV, which has been heavily discussed in the last 24 hours.
The reason is simple: MSTR's mNAV nearly dropped to 1, and even below 1. So what chain reaction will this cause? Does MSTR need to sell Bitcoin to recover?
Once, Michael Saylor publicly stated that if MSTR's mNAV falls below 1, or if the stock price drastically drops to 1 dollar, the company can issue preferred shares or fixed-income instruments like STRK or STRF and then use the funds raised to repurchase MSTR common stock.
Because when mNAV is less than 1, continuing to sell common stock to buy BTC will dilute old shareholders, but repurchasing common stock can increase the BTC content per share and restore the market's confidence in MSTR's capital structure.
So, according to what Saylor said, when mNAV is less than 1, MSTR's first choice is to use preferred shares, fixed-income instruments, and repurchasing common stock to bring mNAV back.
Many may not believe this, or doubt that Michael Saylor would do this, but in history, there have been at least three periods when MSTR's mNAV was below 1.
The first period was the bear market of 2022:
At that time, the price of Bitcoin had dropped to around 16,000 dollars, and MSTR's stock price was long below the value of BTC holdings. MSTR's pace of buying BTC noticeably slowed, and there was a tax-related sale followed by a quick repurchase of more BTC.
In December 2022, Strategy first bought 2,395 BTC, then sold 704 BTC for tax loss management, and two days later bought back 810 BTC, while also selling stock through ATM, netting about 46.4 million dollars.
The second period was from November to December 2025:
About seven months ago, a scenario more severe than today played out, which is why I've been writing so many educational articles lately. It has only been a little over six months since this occurred, and the mNAV was already less than 1 at that time. The market's doubts and FUD about MSTR were very intense.
On December 1, 2025, Strategy announced the establishment of a 1.44 billion dollar USD Reserve to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interests, and this reserve came from the common stock ATM.
Michael Saylor shifted strongly towards preferred stock instruments. When the issuance of common stock became dilutive, high-yield perpetual preferred stock was issued to raise funds for buying BTC or managing common stock.
The third period was February 2026:
The situation then was quite similar to now, with mNAV almost breaking 1, or temporarily having broken 1. During this phase, Strategy did not directly repurchase common stock, nor did it sell BTC on a large scale.
Instead, it continued to buy BTC on a small scale while keeping more money for cash reserves. This is very similar to last week's actions, where they sold 2.7 million shares of MSTR, raising 335.5 million dollars, and only took about 34.9 million dollars to buy 520 BTC, leaving 300 million dollars as cash reserves.
In summary, Michael Saylor's response to these three occasions has basically been to slow down the scale of BTC purchases, allocate more funds as cash reserves, and use the common stock ATM to ensure dividends and debt interests.
So even if this time MSTR's mNAV is indeed below 1, Michael Saylor's first reaction should be to reduce Bitcoin purchases, ensure sufficient cash reserves, maintain financing capabilities, and ensure preferred stock credibility, then wait for BTC or MSTR stock prices to recover.
He has also mentioned issuing preferred stock to repurchase common stock, but of course, this depends on whether tools like STRC, STRF, and STRK can still be played.
Thus, even without mentioning 2022, MSTR has already experienced mNAV below 1 in 2025 and 2026, and during these times, STRC also faced serious declines, generating skepticism in the market, yet MSTR has still managed to get through, and Michael Saylor has not turned into a skilled seller!
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