Introduction: The same Bitcoin drop, two entirely different situations

On June 25, Bitcoin fell below $60,000, putting pressure on the entire cryptocurrency concept stock market. However, within the same market environment, Strategy and MARA are faced with two completely different core challenges: Strategy is dealing with the loss of market trust in its meticulously designed financing tools, while MARA is questioning whether it has reached a valuation bottom after deleveraging. The direction of both will be determined by "whether STRC can return to near par value" and "whether BTC can stabilize at its current position."

1. Strategy: A 10-month cash runway does not solve the trust issue

On June 25, Strategy disclosed that the company has approximately $2.21 billion in total cash reserves, sufficient to cover about 10 months of STRC preferred stock dividends. On that day, STRC fell to around $75, a discount of about 25% from the $100 par value. Two Prime CEO Alexander Blume believes that Saylor's multiple strategic changes combined with the continued decline of MSTR and STRC have undermined retail investors' trust in the company.

Understanding this crisis requires distinguishing between two levels. The first level is financial: the $2.21 billion in cash reserves does adequately cover future STRC dividend payments for about 10 months, meaning there is no default risk in the short term. The real issue is that the discount of STRC to par value leads to a malfunctioning financing engine—when STRC trades near the $100 par value, Strategy can continuously issue new shares and use the proceeds to purchase Bitcoin; however, when STRC is discounted to $75, this issuance mechanism becomes extremely uneconomical, significantly shrinking Strategy's ability to purchase Bitcoin.

The second level is the trust level, which is also the harder level to repair: STRC was positioned by some retail investors as a low-volatility fixed income alternative at the time of sale, so-called "retirement income products." The 25% discount to par value directly contradicts this sales narrative. Blume bluntly stated: "Saylor's incentive mechanism is not aligned with retail investors, unfortunately, those paying the price for STRC are the retail investors marketed as retirement income products."

Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer provided a rebuttal framework for this sentiment: STRC never promised a $100 hard peg, and the comparison with Terra UST is fundamentally flawed in mechanism. UST maintained its peg through an algorithmic mint-and-burn cycle with LUNA, which both went to zero simultaneously when confidence collapsed. STRC, on the other hand, is indirectly backed by approximately 847,363 Bitcoins held by Strategy, which does not have a self-reinforcing collapse mechanism.

The next key inflection point is June 30— the first semi-monthly dividend registration date for STRC, at which point Strategy may announce an adjustment to the dividend rate, and if raised to a level attractive enough to new buyers, it could provide short-term support for STRC's price.

2. MARA: After deleveraging is complete, institutions start giving different answers

Citizens Bank issued its first coverage report on MARA Holdings on June 25, giving it an Outperform rating, becoming one of the few institutions to recently provide a positive initial rating for the mining sector. This directly contrasts with Bernstein's Hold rating maintained on June 23— the differing answers from both institutions within the same timeframe signal a substantive dispute in the market regarding MARA's current valuation.

The logic behind Citizens' choice to initiate coverage with Outperform is likely based on the following foundation: after MARA completed large-scale deleveraging by selling approximately 20,880 BTC (about $1.5 billion) in Q1, the pressure from convertible bonds on their balance sheet has significantly decreased, transforming from a "forced seller" to a "conditionally opportunistic buyer"—its on-chain record of purchasing 1,000 BTC through FalconX in mid-June serves as evidence. Additionally, MARA holds approximately 44% equity in American Bitcoin (ABTC), gaining indirect exposure to the AI infrastructure transformation narrative without bearing the capital expenditure pressure of the transformation itself.

Bernstein's logic for maintaining the Hold rating is rooted in the fact that Bitcoin prices are still under pressure below $60,000, and the profitability of any mining company is highly correlated with BTC prices; before the direction of prices is clear, there is not enough margin of safety to support active allocation. The divergence in perspectives essentially reflects differences in judgment regarding the short-term price direction of Bitcoin, rather than fundamental disagreements about MARA's fundamentals.

On June 25, the strategies of Strategy and MARA collectively present the most genuine differentiation of cryptocurrency concept stocks when Bitcoin fell below $60,000: one is working to rebuild market trust in its meticulously designed financing tools, while the other is waiting for the market to confirm that its deleveraged balance sheet is ready for the next cycle. The only fundamental variable both face is whether the Bitcoin price can find support at its current position and re-establish direction.

Data source: https://bbx.com/ Cryptocurrency concept stock information database, compiled based on global listed company announcements and SEC/TSE disclosure documents from yesterday.

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