The recent investment research team has been digging into the track of embodied intelligence and humanoid robots. My judgment is that in the second half of 2026, the robotics track will usher in the best turning point for investment, similar to the storage track in mid-2025! 🧐

Let me explain the logic behind it:

First, the technology verification has already been fully established, and mass production is imminent!

Tesla has clearly stated that Optimus will undergo mass production in the second half of the year. The Optimus prototype started development back in 2022; why has it taken until now to begin mass production? Because two bottlenecks have been holding it back.

The first bottleneck is the brain of the humanoid robot.

• AI multimodal large models are now completely sufficient; they can understand the complex physical external world, not just mechanically execute preset codes.

• End-to-end embodied intelligence networks, such as the robot control algorithm derived from Tesla's FSD V12, have made generational breakthroughs over the past year.

Especially last year, over a thousand Optimus units were tested at Tesla's factory for B-sample and C-sample validation, rigorously refined, and production validation has met standards; they are now just a step away from mass production.

The second bottleneck is the chassis of the humanoid robot.

Tesla's Optimus Gen-2 has already proven that the supply chain for tactile sensors, dexterous hands, and highly integrated linear and rotational actuators has been fully established. The upcoming Gen-3's performance is twice that of Gen-2, capable of handling most household chores. (As seen in the video below 👇)

Now that the physical chassis and AI brain are in a state of mutual progress, all conditions of timing, geographical advantages, and human resources are in place. Moreover, after SpaceX goes public, all the bold claims Musk made, such as the super chip factory Terafab, Mars base, and space AI, will require a large amount of labor, making labor costs a crucial consideration.

📊 Let’s take a look at the current state of high-cost manufacturing in the United States:

The U.S. manufacturing sector faces two significant painful points.

First, the cost of blue-collar workers is outrageous.

In 2026, the latest data shows that the average hourly wage for frontline manufacturing workers exceeds $30. Including healthcare, retirement, and full compensation costs, employers spend nearly $46.3 per hour.

Second, there are long-term job vacancies.

Data from the U.S. Department of Labor indicates that vacancies in manufacturing jobs range from 400,000 to 500,000. The cost of hiring a worker can reach four to five thousand dollars, and retaining employees is even harder. One third of manufacturing bosses candidly state that the shortage of blue-collar workers is the primary bottleneck limiting expansion.

Standing in this constrained labor market, once Tesla’s Optimus is mass-produced, market demand will explode. Current market forecasts predict the size of the robotics market to reach up to $20-30 trillion.

Let’s calculate the cost:

Musk's optimistic expectation is to keep the Optimus cost under $20,000. Even in a pessimistic estimate, the initial cost per robot is $30,000 to $40,000. Using conservative calculations with 4,000 work hours per year, the operational expenditure could be as low as $3-5 per hour, far below the $46 for human workers.

This gap is not only evident in wages; robots do not have unions, do not quit, and have no accident rates, bringing management costs nearly to zero.

More importantly, all of this will arrive at a solid conclusion in the second half of 2026.

The mass production launch of Optimus will open the floodgates for humanoid robots transitioning from experimental fields to factory floors. The past two years have been a period of technological hype; 2025 will be for technology validation and small-scale pilot production, while 2026 will be the point where the entire industrial chain begins to run rapidly.

The capital market and supply chain are both counting down. Tesla’s suppliers, from linear actuators to gear manufacturers and sensor producers, will become the biggest winners.

This is not just a game of technology; it is also hardcore business mathematics.

I believe everyone will calculate this account, especially under the large AI cycle, as all companies are expanding production. Just think about it: the investment payback period for Optimus is less than a year, it can operate 24 hours a day, and the potential production capacity will quickly surge from several thousand to several hundred thousand units, seizing the entry point for blue-collar automation in U.S. manufacturing. The imaginative space is undoubtedly enormous!

In short:

AI needs a physical body to truly evolve; the blue-collar work in the physical world cannot be supported indefinitely by human labor. The mass production launch of Optimus in the second half of this year will be the critical point for the explosion of humanoid robots.

Focusing on humanoid robots as the main line, we have sorted out quality companies related to US stocks, including core supply chain leaders, from stable-performance actuators to edge computing chips. Let’s discuss some of the core enterprises. 🧐

1️⃣ Tesla $TSLA

This company is familiar to everyone, but don’t view it solely as an automaker; Wall Street now describes it as building cars and delivering robots, indicating a very high cost performance.

• Main business: The global leader in electric vehicles, while also working on FSD autonomous driving, energy systems Megapack, and the humanoid robot Optimus.

• Core barriers: Data flywheel + vertical integration. Tesla is no longer just a car manufacturer; it is a global computing platform. FSD has accumulated billions of miles of real-world road test data, has its own supercomputing center, a closed-loop of hardware and software, and integrated die-casting, creating a cost moat that traditional automakers cannot compete with.

• Highlights: Transition from car manufacturer to AI embodied intelligence company. Commercialization of Robotaxi, Optimus begins working in factories, mass production starts in the second half of the year, global energy storage network experiences explosive growth, and the valuation logic is completely different.

• Advantages in robotics: The AI capabilities from autonomous driving, perception + decision-making, can be directly transferred to humanoid robots. Neural network inference, large-scale data training, battery management, lightweight structural design, these are all core capabilities. If algorithms and hardware continue to lead, they will become the leaders in humanoid robots and reshape the future of human-machine interaction.

2️⃣ Symbotic $SYM

• Main business: AI-driven ultra-high-density warehouse automation logistics systems. A bunch of mobile robots rapidly access goods in three-dimensional shelves, achieving density and speed several times that of traditional AS/RS.

• Core barrier: Deep holdings from Walmart, taking care of all its distribution center upgrades. With billions in orders, it excels in physical hardware + scheduling algorithms, making mixed packing and unpacking of irregular boxes no problem.

• Highlights: Global retail and logistics giants are looking to reduce costs and increase efficiency; with a shortage of blue-collar labor, this represents the ultimate solution. The business model is transitioning towards high-margin software subscriptions and maintenance, with orders lined up for years ahead.

• Embodied intelligence logic: Although it is not a traditional humanoid robot, technologies such as multi-robot coordination, dynamic path planning, and high-precision physical interaction are all key to embodied intelligence. Multi-degree-of-freedom robotic arms, intelligent mobile platforms, real-time perception + decision-making, this foundation can be seamlessly extended towards humanoid robots.

• Value: System integration capability + software-driven expansion into service robots and industry-specific robots represents significant growth potential.

3️⃣ Ambarella $AMBA

• Main business: Low-power, ultra-high-definition video processing + edge AI vision chip design. Initially a core supplier for GoPro, used in security cameras, now fully transforming into smart driving and robotic vision.

• Core barrier: Efficiency per watt of computing power is at an industry ceiling level. The exclusive CVflow architecture runs complex deep neural network algorithms at very low power consumption. In automotive and robotic scenarios, heat dissipation and energy consumption are limited, making this energy efficiency a significant technological advantage.

• Highlights: Transitioning from security to high-computing driving chips, electronic rearview mirrors, and core embodied intelligence vision applications. Increasingly more Tier 1 and robotics companies are using it as the visual base, marking the inflection point for AI business.

• Advantages in robotics: Efficient, low-latency video encoding/decoding + neural network acceleration, providing real-time visual perception and behavior decision-making. Intelligent vision is a core capability of embodied intelligence, and its chip solutions enhance the robot's response speed and recognition accuracy in dynamic environments, enabling complex interactions and self-learning.

4️⃣ Timken $TKR

• Main business: Global leader in high-end precision bearings and power transmission products. Used in aerospace, rail transportation, wind power, heavy mining, and automation engineering.

• Core barrier: Materials science under extreme working conditions + trusted assets. In deep-sea, space, and massive wind power gearboxes, bearing failures lead to prohibitively high costs. Timken monopolizes these core industrial nodes with special metallurgical processes developed over a century and maintenance-free lifetimes.

• Highlights: Large-scale construction of wind and solar infrastructure, upgrading heavy industrial automation. Strong cash flow, excellent dividends, and a gem of cyclical manufacturing.

• Advantages in robotics: High-performance bearings used in humanoid robot multi-degree-of-freedom joints, characterized by high wear resistance and low friction, addressing mechanical energy consumption and durability bottlenecks. More importantly, their self-developed intelligent sensing bearings provide online health diagnostics, enabling robots to "self-perceive" mechanical states, enhancing state feedback and fault warning capabilities.

• Value: As robots move towards long-term reliable operation and precise motion control, Timken's underlying barriers in the power chain are irreplaceable. Intelligent bearing technology will become a key hardware component for advanced humanoid robot perception and control.

5️⃣ Moog-A $MOG.A

• Main business: A leading manufacturer of precision motion control + electro-hydraulic servo systems globally. Its products are used in flight control, spacecraft attitude adjustment, and weapon positioning applications, with contributions to fifth-generation fighter jets, missile navigation, and commercial airliners.

• Core barrier: High entry barriers in aerospace and defense sectors, almost monopolized. High-frequency, high-response electro-hydraulic servo valves and actuators control mechanical motion precision to the micron level in extreme high pressure and temperature environments, directly related to the safety issues of catastrophic failures. Their positions in the Boeing, Airbus, and military fifth-generation flight control systems are irreplaceable, illustrating a technological edge and certification barriers.

• Highlights: Transitioning from traditional heavy industry to defense technology assets. Geopolitical tensions are rising, and the defense budgets of NATO and Asian allies are significantly increasing, leading to a rising order pool and full visibility for the coming years. The recovery of large aircraft delivery cycles, combined with product price increases and operational efficiency optimization, is raising profit margins, marking it as a defensive jewel in military technology.

• Advantages in robotics: Electro-hydraulic servo valves + high-precision motion controllers have long served military-grade complex systems, offering high response speeds + extreme reliability, directly meeting the requirements of high-degree-of-freedom humanoid robot joints. High-performance drive solutions enhance action smoothness and delicacy, setting benchmarks in force feedback and tactile interaction.

In addition to the above-mentioned US-listed companies, some companies in Europe and Japan are also worth paying attention to. (I won't recommend A-shares for now, as their valuations are generally too speculative.)

For instance, in the field of linear actuators and T-R screws, especially planetary roller screws are key to the legs and heavy-duty joints of robots. Their barrier lies in the C3/C5 level ultra-high precision thread grinding technology and fatigue-resistant heat treatment. Currently, global production capacity is severely constrained in Europe, such as Sweden's SKF, the world's largest rolling bearing manufacturer. Germany's Schaeffler is a core supplier of high-end robotic joint actuators, precision reducers, roller screws, special bearings, and motors.

Moreover, rotational actuators and reducers are also critical components of humanoid robots; the core of the rotary joint is the harmonic reducer and high-density planetary reducer, requiring zero backlash and high torque-to-volume ratios. The Japanese company Harmonic Drive System (HDS) has almost monopolized the high-end market! (Tokyo stock code: 6324).

Each of the above targets is not just speculative concepts; they have genuine technologies. Moreover, their valuations are relatively reasonable, with key positions in technology barriers, business models, and the humanoid robot sector. The second half of 2026 will be a critical turning point for investment in humanoid robots, deserving in-depth research. DYOR 🙏

Currently, the companies mentioned above are basically available on #MSX. For trading US stocks, I choose to use the #RWA US stock tokenization platform #MSX to participate in the US stock market: http://msx.com/?code=Vu2v44

Early fans and partners in US stock investment can message me privately; after filling out the form, you can enter the community for free discussion and exploration of US stocks (currently limited to 10 people weekly, assistant-reviewed, may take a little time, thanks 🙏)!

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