Overview

The Bitcoin derivatives market is sending a rare warning signal to the outside world. Currently, the total open interest of Bitcoin options across the market has approached $34.5 billion, while simultaneously, the positions and trading volume of put options have both surged, with traders' defensive layouts reaching their highest levels in recent years.

The backdrop to all this is that the spot price of Bitcoin hovers around $63,000, having corrected nearly 50% from the historical peak of $126,000 recorded in October 2025. The upcoming large-scale quarterly expiry date on June 26 is pushing this tense situation to a critical point. This article will delve into the current structural imbalance of the options market and what these data mean for the next movement of Bitcoin.

Key Takeaways

The total open interest of Bitcoin options across the market has approached $34.5 billion, with over $13 billion in notional value of contracts expiring on June 26 from a single platform, Deribit, accounting for 79% of the market.

78% of call options have strike prices above $72,000, and all are currently "out of the money" at the current price of $63,000, placing immense pressure on positions.

The put option positions at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), an institution-level trading venue, have continued to exceed calls since November 2025, indicating strong hedging sentiment among institutions.

Calculations for the price ranges around the expiration point on June 26 show a clear dominance of puts, with a net over $3 billion in the $57,000 to $61,000 range.

Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows since mid-May, and the pressure from the funding side combined with the bearish structure of derivatives cannot be ignored.

$34.5 Billion Options Mountain: The Market Logic Behind the Numbers

According to CoinGlass real-time data, the total open interest of Bitcoin options across the market has now approached $34.5 billion. Although this figure has significantly contracted from the historical peak of over $65 billion in October 2025, it remains a highly oppressive number against the backdrop of Bitcoin's deep price retraction.

In terms of exchange distribution, Deribit holds about 79% of the global Bitcoin options market share, an absolutely unshakable dominant position. OKX accounts for about 6%, while Binance and CME each account for about 5%, and Bybit around 4%. Such high concentration means that as the large expiry point from Deribit approaches, the pricing mechanism of the entire Bitcoin options market will fluctuate dramatically.

On the critical expiry date of June 26, the notional value of Bitcoin options on the Deribit platform alone has already approached $13 billion. For Bitcoin, which is currently around $63,000, this represents a "Sword of Damocles" hanging over the market.

The Predicament of Call Options: 78% Have Become Worthless

What worries bulls the most in the market structure is the massive "out of the money" situation of call options. On the Deribit platform, the total open interest of call options is about $6 billion, with as much as 78% of contracts having strike prices concentrated at $72,000 and above, while the current Bitcoin spot price remains around $63,000.

This means that the vast majority of investors who went long on options will see their contracts become worthless if Bitcoin does not achieve a significant rebound of over 14% by the expiry on June 26. Data from CryptoBriefing shows that even in mid-June, the call/put ratio on Deribit still showed a slight bullish structure (about 58.5% of open interest was calls), but the 24-hour trading volume turned around, with puts exceeding calls, indicating a significant rise in short-term hedging demand.

This split situation of "holding long, trading hedging" itself is a reflection of the highly divided market sentiment: long-term investors may still hope for Bitcoin to return to high positions by the end of the year, but short-term traders have begun to pay for downside risks.

The Advantage of Put Options: How $4.5 Billion Locks Key Positions

In stark contrast to the fragility of call options, the holding structure of put options seems much more "robust." On the Deribit platform, the current open interest of put options is about $4.5 billion, and more importantly, only 28% of put positions are set at extreme prices below $57,000, which means that over 70% of put options can profit from a fairly moderate decline.

Based on calculations from Deribit's June 26 expiry data across various price ranges, puts dominate in every price range:

$57,000 to $61,000: Puts net over $3.4 billion

$61,001 to $65,000: Puts net over $2.7 billion

$65,001 to $69,000: Puts net over $1.7 billion

$69,001 to $71,000: Puts net over $1 billion

Even if Bitcoin achieves a 12% rebound before expiration, the entire options structure will still not flip from bearish to bullish dominated. This structural bias indicates a clear technical pressure direction for June 26's expiry trend.

Institutional Silent Alarm: CME's Put Positions Continue to Dominate Since Last November

In the Bitcoin options market, the most valuable institutional sentiment indicator often comes from the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). Unlike crypto-native exchanges, the participants at CME mainly consist of regulated institutional investors, hedge funds, and asset management companies, whose holdings better reflect the true judgment of "smart money."

CME's options data shows that since November 2025, the open interest of put options on the CME platform has consistently remained above that of call options. This pattern has not changed even after Bitcoin started a stage-wise rebound from a low around $65,000 in February 2026. Institutional participants prefer to continue holding downside protection during price recoveries, which itself is a very cautious market signal.

The expiry structure of CME's option holdings also deserves attention: current holdings are highly concentrated in recent contracts expiring within one to two months, and long-term positions (over four months) have significantly shrunk. This contrasts sharply with the massive position-building pattern seen by institutions in October to November 2025. The market is narrowing its vision, and the time dimension of uncertainty has been significantly compressed.

CME's open interest data also shows that during the panic selling event when Bitcoin plunged to about $60,000 on February 5, 2026, the implied volatility of 25 delta puts surged to 95%, marking the highest reading since 2022, indicating that institutions are pricing in tail risks extremely aggressively.

Overlaying Pressure from Macro and Funding Aspects

The bearish structure of the options market does not exist in isolation; it forms a mutually corroborative relationship with the funding situation of the Bitcoin spot market.

Bitcoin.com reports that Bitcoin's overall options open interest has fallen from its peak of $65 billion in October 2025 to about $35 billion now, and open interest in futures has also significantly shrunk from over $90 billion. This process of deleveraging is essentially an objective reflection of the market's waning speculative enthusiasm.

Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen continuous net outflows since mid-May, with institutional incremental funds that previously drove the "winter market" retreating. Analysis from CoinTribune also points out that the large-scale net outflow of ETF funds resonates with Deribit's upcoming quarterly expiry, further exacerbating the market's downside pressure.

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path remains full of uncertainties. CME Group's research report indicates that since August 2025, Bitcoin's 25 delta risk reversal indicator has consistently remained negative, reflecting that investors' demand for upside protection has been lower than for downside protection for a long time, even during price increases. This "buying insurance while the price rises" behavior pattern marks a fundamental shift in market participants' psychological expectations.

Want to flexibly lay out long and short strategies in a volatile market? MEXC offers a rich array of Bitcoin options and contract trading tools to meet various risk preferences.

Max Pain and Expiry Dynamics: Where Will the Price Go

In the options market, "max pain" is a key reference indicator, representing the price level at which options buyers suffer the greatest loss overall at expiry, and is the price point that options sellers (typically market makers) most desire the price to move towards.

Based on Deribit's June 26 expiry data, the max pain level is about in the $77,500 to $78,000 range, with the current Bitcoin price around $63,000, indicating more than a 20% upward space to max pain position. This means that to inflict maximum loss on long option holders, the price actually needs to rise significantly—this diverges sharply from current funding and sentiment.

However, the max pain theory is not eternally valid. In extreme sentiment, markets often deviate from the max pain price range. Recent price behavior of Bitcoin around $63,000 reflects more on weak spot buying rather than active driving by the options mechanism. Max pain data from the Binance and OKX platforms similarly shows that near-term max pain around June 26 is concentrated in the $66,700 to $69,000 range, all above the current price but below Deribit's readings, indicating clear divergences among different platforms regarding expectations for the end of June trend.

MEXC Crypto Pulse Research Team Exclusive Insights

Considering the current options market structure, funding data, and macro context, the MEXC Crypto Pulse research team believes that the unusual aggregation of put options this round is not merely a short-term speculative behavior, but a systematic hedge against multiple overlapping uncertainties by market participants.

Core Judgment One: The June 26 expiry date is the most critical risk window recently. Under the current options structure, puts hold a net advantage in every price range, coupled with continuous outflow of spot ETF funds, maintaining Bitcoin's operation above $63,000 before June 26 will remain pressured. Unless a significant positive catalyst occurs—such as an unexpectedly dovish signal from the Federal Reserve or a sudden large-scale inflow of spot ETFs—the probability of further price probing is not to be underestimated.

Core Judgment Two: The divergence in put/call ratios signifies a "dual-track thinking" in the market. Long-term position data shows that a considerable amount of funds still bet on Bitcoin returning to $120,000 by the end of 2026; while the short-term trading volume favored puts, indicating that holders are actively purchasing insurance for "short-term volatility" while "believing in the long term." This structure often appears in the final round of emotional release before major bottom areas, but the specific time window is difficult to determine accurately and requires continuous tracking of capital flows.

Core Judgment Three: The reference significance of institutional behavior far exceeds retail sentiment. The characteristic of CME's put positions continuously dominating has appeared before the last three major Bitcoin bottoms. From this perspective, the current bearish structure does not necessarily imply that prices will continue to decline, but may indicate that institutions are preparing for "low-level absorption" systematically. Our team suggests that investors pay close attention to: first, the marginal changes in ETF fund flows; second, whether the bullish/bearish ratio of CME options' open interest has turned; third, whether Bitcoin can reclaim the recent key resistance level of $69,000.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What is Bitcoin Options Open Interest?

Open interest refers to the total number of options contracts that are outstanding in the market (calculated at notional value). It reflects the overall position size of market participants, and high open interest often indicates that the upcoming expiry date will have a greater impact on price movements.

Q2: What does a significant increase in put options mean?

The buyer of a put option has the right to sell Bitcoin at a specific price at a future time. A surge in open interest of put options indicates more market participants are purchasing protection for declines in Bitcoin prices, reflecting bearish market expectations and rising hedging demand.

Q3: Why is the June 26 expiry date so important?

June 26 is the quarterly expiry date for the second quarter of 2026, and is one of the largest scheduled settlement nodes of the entire year. Only on the Deribit platform, about $13 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts will expire on that day, accounting for a large proportion of the market's open interest. Such a massive settlement often leads to severe fluctuations in the spot price of Bitcoin around the expiry.

Q4: How reliable is the max pain theory?

Max pain is a theoretical reference price, and the actual price does not necessarily run precisely to that position. In a liquidity-rich, neutrally emotional environment, prices are more likely to trend towards max pain; but in extreme emotions, markets often deviate significantly from that price level. Investors should view it as a supplementary reference rather than an accurate predictive tool.

Q5: How should ordinary investors respond to the current bearish signals in the options market?

First, assess your own risk tolerance and maintain a reasonable risk exposure in positions. Consider mitigating positions, setting stop-loss orders, or holding stablecoin assets to cope with potential volatility. If you wish to participate in options hedging strategies, it is advisable to operate on platforms like MEXC that provide complete options tools after fully understanding the options product mechanisms.

Q6: With Bitcoin's current price at $63,000, is it a good buying opportunity?

This article does not constitute investment advice. From a technical and derivatives structure perspective, the price trend before the June 26 expiry shows significant bearish pressure, but whether "it is a good buying opportunity" depends on your investment cycle and risk preference. Please conduct your own research (DYOR) thoroughly before making any investment decision.

Disclaimer

The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute any form of investment advice or financial guidance. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and carries the risk of loss of principal. All data and analyses in this article are based on market conditions at the time of writing and do not represent predictions or guarantees of future price movements. Investors should conduct their own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions and consult a professional financial advisor as necessary.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。