It is now June 25, 2026, in the morning. Let's take a look at the upcoming trends for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold.
The market yesterday actually provided very clear signals.
During the trading, I repeatedly emphasized that 62800 is the last key support in the current upward structure.
Once it is lost, the market will shift from a mildly strong oscillation to a bear-dominated state, with subsequent targets looking down to 61000 or even below 60000.
The market subsequently operated completely as expected.
When the price dropped to around 59000, market sentiment was already close to panic. Many people dared not buy the dip and even left the market to wait and see. My view at that time was very clear: the more extreme the sentiment, the easier it is to produce a rebound opportunity.
Then Bitcoin quickly bounced back to around 61000, and we successfully took profits.
However, after the short-term rebound ended, what deserves more attention is that the overall market structure has changed.
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Bitcoin: Breaking 62800, the bullish script ends
For a long time, I have maintained one viewpoint:
Bitcoin is operating within an upward channel on the daily level. As long as the key support holds, the bullish logic remains valid.
But the market does not always operate according to the same script.
With 62800 being effectively breached, the original upward trend has been damaged.
For trend trading, breaking the support level does not only indicate a price drop but also means that the original logic has failed.
From now on, 62800 has turned from support to resistance.
Even if the price bounces back to this area in the future, caution against bears regaining strength is necessary.
From the daily structure, the key support to pay attention to below is around 56400.
This is an important area for future battles between bulls and bears.
If 56400 can hold, there might still be a chance for the market to build a new oscillation structure; if the daily line at 56400 is effectively broken, the next target will further point towards around 52000.
From the weekly perspective, the situation is equally grim.
I have previously warned that there is a possibility of closing lower this week. Currently, this probability remains high.
The biggest characteristic of the weekly line is that all moving averages are running above the price, forming a clear pressure.
The price has been unable to regain a position above the moving average system, indicating that the initiative is still in the hands of the bears.
From both the weekly and monthly perspective, there is currently no clear reversal signal.
Therefore, the medium to long-term strategy remains cautious.
Back to the 4-hour cycle.
The previously analyzed descending channel is still effective, with the upper trend line continually suppressing the price action.
From the pattern, the market has not only formed a double top structure but has also evolved into a standard "M-top" trend.
The most important short-term position is around 58500.
If 58500 is breached, a new downward space will be opened, and the bearish trend will continue further.
Therefore, until there is a change in the trend, rebounds should still be prioritized as short-selling opportunities, rather than reasons to chase the price up blindly.
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Ethereum: No rebound came, but the risk of a drop has arrived
Recently, the market has been discussing one topic:
When will Ethereum make a rebound?
However, from the market performance, Ethereum has not shown a significantly stronger trend compared to Bitcoin.
On the contrary, after the market weakens, Ethereum often shows greater downward elasticity.
The current 4-hour level has opened a new downward channel, and the overall structure remains in sync with Bitcoin.
The area from 1650 to 1670 above is currently the most important pressure zone.
If the price can rebound to this area, short-selling opportunities will obviously increase.
On the downside, the previous support at 1619 has been breached.
1616 has become the last short-term defense line.
If 1616 is also broken, Ethereum is likely to retest lower support areas.
Although there are currently signs of a certain rebound at the 4-hour level, from a trend perspective, the rebound is more of a corrective nature.
As long as it cannot stabilize above 1650, the overall bias remains bearish.
Therefore, for Ethereum, the most important thing right now is not to look for reasons to rebound, but to first observe whether the key support can hold.
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Gold: The bearish trend has not yet ended
Now let's look at gold.
Yesterday, gold rebounded to a high of around 4030.
My plan has always been very clear:
Look for short opportunities around 4080.
However, the market did not even reach the location of 4080; it only touched 4030 before turning downward again.
From the trend, gold is still in a bear-dominated phase.
Currently, the market's game regarding interest rate cuts, inflation, and the dollar's movement is still ongoing, but these factors have not changed gold's current weak structure.
The price has not been able to regain a position above the key pressure area.
Therefore, before a significant reversal trend emerges, gold still maintains the strategy of rebounding to short.
It is worth mentioning that the weakness of gold has also, to some extent, affected sentiment in the crypto market.
Many people like to refer to Bitcoin as digital gold.
But the reality is often more direct:
When U.S. stocks fall, it falls;
When gold falls, it sometimes falls too;
When liquidity contracts, it will still fall.
So rather than looking for various explanations, it is better to respect the market itself.
Going with the trend is always more important than predicting the market.
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Market Projection
Next, Bitcoin is likely to follow two paths.
The first scenario:
The price continues to test the 59500 to 59000 area downward, completes a second bottoming out, then rebounds and attacks the 62000 to 62500 area, and again faces pressure before retreating.
The second scenario:
The price directly starts a repair trend from the current position, first rebounding to the 61500 to 62500 area, then re-entering a downward rhythm.
Although the paths are different, the core logic is the same:
The market is still dominated by bears, and rebounds should prioritize high short perspectives.
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Key Market Levels
BTC (Bitcoin)
The key pressure area above is 61500 to 62000, with strong resistance at 62500 to 63000. If the rebound cannot effectively break through this area, the bearish trend is likely to continue.
Downward, short-term support is at 59000 to 59500, with further support around 58500. If 58500 is lost, attention should turn to the 56400 key support area. Once the daily line at 56400 is effectively broken, the mid-term target will further look toward around 52000.
ETH (Ethereum)
The pressure area above is focused on 1650 to 1670, which is also the current ideal position for bears to layout.
Support below is at 1616 to 1619. If this area is lost, it may further retest the support around 1550. The overall trend still follows Bitcoin, with no signs of independent strength observed yet.
XAU (Gold)
The pressure above for gold is the 4030 to 4080 range, with 4080 still being an important trend pressure point.
As long as the price cannot stabilize above 4080, the overall strategy remains to short on rebounds. Below, continue to monitor the continuation of the bearish trend and follow the trend accordingly.
Operational Thoughts
Currently, the core logic of the market remains unchanged:
After Bitcoin broke below 62800, the bullish script has ended; Ethereum has also entered a downward channel; the bearish trend for gold is still intact.
Before a new trend emerges, rebounds should first look at pressures, and corrections should first look at supports. The overall thinking still maintains the approach of “finding opportunities in rebounds and trading with the trend.”
The market will never lack opportunities, but opportunities always belong to those who respect trends.
Going with the trend is more important than predicting the market.
I am Jin Zhechuan.
A boat follows the river and moves quickly; a person follows the path and does not get lost.
See you next time.
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