On June 25, 2024, during intraday trading of US stocks, the Dow Jones rose about 0.94%, the S&P 500 rose about 0.60%, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.63%. In the context of easing inflation expectations and broad support for growth assets from the macro environment, the market exhibited a typical pattern of "warming risk appetite + widespread gains". However, during the same trading period, cryptocurrency-related stocks and the storage sector collectively weakened: MicroStrategy declined about 7.33%, Coinbase fell about 3.73%, Circle and Bitmine dropped in the range of 3%-4%, and both Western Digital and Seagate Technology saw declines exceeding 4%, sharply contrasting with the strength of the broader market and certain technology and growth sectors. This is particularly noteworthy as stocks like MSTR and COIN have historically been highly correlated with Bitcoin prices and are often viewed as stock proxies for sentiment and risk in the crypto market; when "indexes rise broadly + some tech strength", they were subject to concentrated selling, coupled with signs of funds rotating within the broad technology sector towards sub-sectors like optical communication (such as Corning and Ciena), thereby suggesting an active reduction of high volatility, high leverage, and marginal risk exposure at the asset class level. This divergence is not merely noise in sector rotation but may reflect a phase of cooling preference for high beta risk assets and repositioning, constituting a serious warning signal regarding the pricing of risk premiums and capital flows for crypto assets like BTC and ETH moving forward.
Broad market gains, crypto stocks fall against the trend
Data from the same point in time laid this disconnect bare: on June 25, 2024, during intraday trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 0.94%, the S&P 500 rose about 0.60%, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.63%, indicative of a typical "risk assets broadly strengthening" state. Against this backdrop of rebound, several core crypto-related stocks acted in reverse—MicroStrategy dropped about 7.33%, Coinbase fell about 3.73%, Circle declined about 4.35%, Bitmine dropped about 3.97%, and Robinhood was also in a downtrend (specific decline yet to be confirmed). The direction was not only completely reversed but the declines were significantly amplified, corresponding to a "de-risking" operation in the crypto exposure of 3%-7% on a day when the broader market saw gains of +0.6%-0.9% in risk appetite.
In the absence of explicit negative news or announcements at the company level acting as direct catalysts, this combination of "US stocks rising broadly + crypto stocks declining" appears more like a collective repricing at the trading level: on one hand, the tolerance for high valuations and volatility in the crypto sector is being dialed down, as funds are unwilling to continue paying the prior premiums for high beta exposures; on the other hand, in an environment where regulatory directions remain uncertain, equity market investors tend to withdraw from the most sensitive crypto exposures first. Considering that MicroStrategy, Coinbase, and others have historically been highly correlated with Bitcoin prices and are long viewed as "amplifiers of sentiment in the crypto market", their excessive declines on a broadly bullish day can be interpreted as signals from equity investors reducing the risk appetite for BTC, ETH, and other related assets, indicating that the risk premium pricing for core assets like BTC and ETH is facing upward pressure from the equity market.
Storage weakens, optical communication strengthens, AI chain funds rotate
During the same trading period, a clear structural differentiation also emerged within the broad "AI infrastructure" chain: companies representing storage and hardware, such as Western Digital and Seagate Technology, saw declines exceeding 4%, while those representing optical communication and optical networks, such as Corning, experienced notable gains, with Ciena also recording an increase. Currently, there are no confirmed industry reports or earnings warnings pointing to a single negative catalyst for the storage sector on that day, and amidst a broadly positive market and overall acceptable risk appetite in technology, such a counterintuitive trend of "storage plummeting, optical communication strengthening" appears more like an active repositioning within the sector rather than a systemic sell-off.
From an investment cycle perspective, storage is closer to the early beneficiary stage of the current round of AI hardware shipments; after fully trading in the earlier phase, marginal expectations began to flatten, with funds turning towards optical communication and other sub-sectors perceived as having greater imaginative potential as "the next stage of data center upgrades", which has been a recurring pattern in previous rounds of AI and semiconductor markets. This duration and risk reallocation within the same AI infrastructure theme provides a reference for understanding the current pricing of crypto assets: equity funds are reducing positions in high beta assets, particularly those highly exposed to the upstream computing cycle (like storage and crypto-related stocks), while reallocating to other tech growth sectors that belong to the "early narrative of new stories" (like optical communication). In relation to the crypto world, this likely indicates that capital is also migrating from a single high-volatility mainline to more diversified and meticulous sub-sectors and shorter-duration trading structures, thus the risk premiums of core assets like BTC and ETH will depend more on their relative attractiveness in this round of cross-asset and cross-sector rotation rather than merely on a simple "risk appetite fluctuation".
Inflation cooling expectations lead to profit-taking in high-volatility sectors
Cathie Wood previously emphasized that inflation measured by unit labor costs has dropped to about 0.5% year-on-year and predicts that inflation may significantly decline, essentially reiterating an optimistic narrative of "lower discount rates" at the macro level. For growth stocks and tech stocks, or long-duration assets that rely heavily on pricing expected future cash flows, a decrease in inflation and interest rate expectations typically raises valuation tolerance. On June 25, during the intraday session, the Dow Jones rose about 0.94%, the S&P 500 rose about 0.60%, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.63%, aligning with this narrative, indicating that capital is still willing to "pay for time". However, within the same framework, high-volatility sectors that should benefit from risk appetite and duration premiums did not advance concurrently.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks and storage stocks weakened against the trend that day, with MicroStrategy down about 7.33%, Coinbase down about 3.73%, Circle, Bitmine, as well as Western Digital and Seagate Technology seeing declines around or above 4%, significantly weaker than the broader market and some technology sub-sectors, while optic communication stocks like Corning and Ciena strengthened, demonstrating that capital was reallocating within technology rather than simply increasing positions. This combination of "macro favorable conditions—high beta killing valuations" seems more like a phase of profit-taking in sectors that saw excessive prior gains and crowded positions: as the discount rate is repriced more favorably, the most crowded high-volatility assets become the most convenient means of realizing profits. Given that MSTR, COIN, and others are usually highly correlated with Bitcoin and viewed as market proxies for crypto, if this round of stock price adjustment does not coincide with similar declines in BTC/ETH, it suggests that equity markets are beginning to demand a higher risk premium, potentially shrinking the "valuation premium" of crypto stocks compared to underlying assets; if subsequent cryptocurrency prices follow suit, it indicates that equity trading has already preemptively completed the risk repricing process. This divergence itself is a signal: in a phase of cooling inflation expectations and a broadly nominal environment, the market's risk pricing for "on-chain assets" and "crypto equity vehicles" is decoupling, and high-volatility sectors are more likely to first encounter de-leveraging and profit realization on the equity side.
Rumors about Hormuz resurface, high-risk assets face discounts
Rubio emphasized in a statement that "the whole world will oppose any mechanism that charges fees for international waterways" and stated that the president had made it clear that this situation "will not happen", while he believes Gulf countries will support this stance. Whether this rhetoric translates into policy remains uncertain, but placing options like "charging for international waterways" on the table brings critical passages like the Strait of Hormuz back into the pricing spotlight: even if there is currently no confirmed information regarding changes in passage fees or specific charging mechanisms, the market will first adjust the risk premiums in energy and global supply chains, incorporating the tail risk scenarios of "potential charges or stronger controls" into probability weights.
On the index front, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose approximately 0.94%, 0.60%, and 0.63% during the day, indicating that the overall US stock market can still absorb this layer of geopolitical noise, but the micro-adjustments in risk premiums often do not first crush the broad market but are initially reflected in the discounts of high-leverage, high-volatility assets: MicroStrategy declined about 7.33%, Coinbase, Circle, and Bitmine returned about 3%-4%. In the combination of "macroeconomic warming + rising geopolitical uncertainty", crypto stocks became the most easily reduced asset vehicles. Historical experiences show that rhetoric related to Middle Eastern shipping lanes often first channels through risk appetite and volatility pathways, prompting capital to tighten leverage on the most elastic varieties on the books, while in terms of pricing expresses itself as follows: the index remains stable, but high-risk assets are discounted first, providing a critical window for observing whether subsequent cryptocurrency assets like BTC/ETH will follow suit in raising risk premiums.
What this round of divergence means for BTC and crypto capital
In the context of the June 25 "broad index gains + declines in crypto stocks and storage stocks", a more reasonable interpretation is that funds conducted a localized "cooling" of high beta risk exposures, rather than a comprehensive retreat from the entire risk asset system. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq rose approximately 0.94%, 0.60%, and 0.63%, respectively, while MicroStrategy, Coinbase, Circle, and Bitmine declined approximately 3%-7% during the same period, compounded by both Western Digital and Seagate Technology dropping over 4%. This suggests that on the equity side, the first to be reduced were crypto and storage assets that are highly correlated with Bitcoin and the most elastic. Due to the lack of specific price and fluctuation data for BTC and ETH on that day, it is impossible to directly determine whether "crypto prices were cut in tandem," but historically, MSTR and COIN have been regarded as stock proxies for crypto sentiment and their significant underperformance against the broader market can be seen as a signal of traditional funds reducing leverage on high beta crypto exposures at this phase, implying that the risk premiums for BTC/ETH are now facing a short-term upward adjustment, with a more conservative willingness to open new risk exposures. On the spot market side, this is often manifested as marginal buying becoming more selective, with funds leaning towards watching or low-leverage allocations; on the derivatives side, it may be more easily reflected through adjustments in leverage preferences, such as long-end trend bulls reducing positions and hedging positions tending to use futures and options instead of unidirectional increases, thereby compressing positive basis and raising the valuation of protective put options. What is needed next is not a simple bet on "weaker stocks and weaker crypto" or "weaker stocks and stronger crypto" as a single narrative but rather the establishment of a tracking framework: First, observing the rolling correlation between MSTR, COIN, and BTC prices; if stocks are weak but crypto prices remain stable or even strengthen, it indicates that this is more about repositioning within the US stock system; if subsequently BTC/ETH also weakens significantly, it suggests that the deleveraging has spread from equity vehicles to the underlying assets. Second, monitoring daily capital flows into US crypto-related ETFs and funds; despite current specific data being lacking, this will be a key window to validate whether off-chain capital is synchronously withdrawing from crypto assets. Third, combining subsequent US inflation data and interest rate expectation changes, as well as new developments regarding geopolitical risks in the Middle East, to assess whether global risk appetite will contract again and thus evaluate whether the market would further adjust the risk premiums for assets like BTC, ETH, which will determine whether this divergence is ultimately just a brief localized "cooling" or transforms into a broader repricing of crypto risk exposures.
Join our community, let’s discuss and become stronger together!
AiCoin exclusive Hyperliquid benefits: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/AICOIN88
AiCoin exclusive Aster benefits: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2
On-chain Telegram community: https://t.me/AiCoinWhaleData
On-chain community: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=N6OVMor5g
AiCoin on-chain Twitter: https://x.com/aicoinwhaledata
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
