After the big drop last night, on June 24, before the market opened, U.S. stocks related to the storage concept first gave signals of emotional recovery: Micron Technology rose more than 3% pre-market, SanDisk rose more than 2%, and Western Digital and others also strengthened simultaneously. The market is re-evaluating storage and AI business cycle expectations in a short-term technical rebound. That evening, Micron's post-market performance was seen as a key window to verify the character of this rebound. At the same time, the macro environment is described as "warming up", and risk appetite has extended to crypto assets. The crypto market has recently shown signs of recovery, and platforms have capitalized on this emotional momentum. Huobi HTX announced it would start a live broadcast at 20:00 (UTC+8) that evening, using the World Cup excitement combined with the warming macro environment as the framework to discuss the drivers behind this round of crypto rebound. As risk asset prices and sentiment rise in sync, some analysts have shifted their focus to AI supercomputing investments and pressures on leading cloud vendors' profitability: Serenity believes that in the area of supercomputing AI, Amazon is currently one of the clearer investment targets. However, profits from the supercomputing business are being eroded by semiconductor manufacturers, and cloud vendors may face a turning point in capital expenditures in the future. This will also determine whether storage stocks and crypto assets can transform this round of emotional recovery into a more sustainable trend.

Pre-market Pullback of Storage Stocks After Last Night's Crash

After experiencing a significant decline the previous night, storage stocks showed tentative pullback in the U.S. market before it opened on June 24: Micron Technology increased by more than 3% pre-market, SanDisk rebounded by over 2% pre-market, and stocks like Western Digital also rose from lows. Sentiment shifted from panic selling to cautious speculation. Considering the decline of the previous night, this pre-market "V-shaped" recovery seems more like a re-pricing of the risk premiums related to storage and AI chains in a short time, rather than a one-sided emotional release.

The market views the performance to be disclosed by Micron after the close that night as a key indicator of the storage cycle and AI-related demand. Therefore, this round of pre-market gains has marked characteristics of "pre-event": on one hand, some funds are conducting technical repairs and short covering after consecutive declines; on the other hand, some funds are choosing to position ahead of the performance announcement, betting that Micron will give a more optimistic outlook on future storage prices and AI demand. Under the background of a "warming" macro environment, this technical rebound combined with fundamental expectations has made the pre-market pullback a key signal to observe whether the subsequent behaviors of storage stocks and AI sentiment can continue.

AI Supercomputing Drives Demand: Repricing of the Storage Cycle

Behind the short-term emotional recovery after "last night’s big drop", funds have actually been reassessing the profitability structure and pricing logic along the AI supercomputing chain. Serenity mentioned that in the direction of supercomputing AI investment, Amazon is currently one of the clearest investment targets. This is mainly because its cloud business supports the entire revenue chain from chips to computing power, down to storage and upper-level applications, thus reflecting AI supercomputing capital expenditures and demand fairly directly. However, he also warned that profits from the supercomputing business are being eroded by semiconductor manufacturers, and cloud vendors' profitability is being compressed, which means that even if AI demand is still expanding, the marginal profits remaining on cloud vendors' books may not linearly match.

The result of profits tilting towards the semiconductor side is that cloud vendors will tend to be cautious in their bargaining and investment during the hardware purchasing phase: as upstream costs for chips, storage, servers, and GPUs continuously rise, and the pricing power of cloud vendors themselves is limited, capital expenditures may reach a tipping point when profit limits are touched. Based on this, Serenity points out that relevant companies face risks of tipping points in future capital expenditure. Once such a tipping point arises, the currently AI-supercomputing-driven demand growth for storage and computing power devices might be revised down. Today, the rebound in storage stocks such as Micron before the market opened on June 24 reflects more of a short-term bet on “whether the performance and guidance can refute this tipping point”, rather than an unconditional confirmation of a new round of unrestricted boom cycle. This is also one of the core variables that must be closely monitored in order for the current rebound in storage stocks to continue.

From Wall Street to Crypto Trading: Risk Appetite Rises in Sync

If the pre-market rebound of U.S. storage stocks on June 24 can be seen as a real-time thermometer of "risk appetite recovery", then the recent rebound in the crypto market during the same time period is the echo of this emotional chain on the other end. After last night's big drop, Micron Technology rose more than 3% pre-market, SanDisk rose more than 2% pre-market, and storage stocks such as Western Digital also showed recovery. While the market focuses on Micron's impending post-market performance, the macro environment is described as "warming up", and tentative buying of high-beta assets is reappearing among investors. The report also pointed out that, under this context, the crypto market has similarly shown signs of rebound recently, with high-growth tech stocks in the traditional market—especially those related to AI and storage—being viewed by investors as assets within the same risk appetite chain as mainstream crypto assets, leading to synchronized pricing of the same class of risk exposures across different markets.

Crypto trading platforms are also actively amplifying this round of emotional recovery. Huobi HTX announced that it would start a live broadcast at 20:00 (UTC+8) that evening, focusing on “the reasons behind the recent rebound of the crypto market”, intentionally overlapping with the World Cup excitement and the narrative of “warming macro environment” to leverage the attention around the resurgence of emotions in the crypto space and Wall Street. From the pricing logic perspective, on one side of the traditional stock market, the bounce in storage stocks is still strongly anchored by fundamentals variables such as Micron’s performance and guidance. On the crypto asset side, however, it is more driven by re-pricing of macro sentiment and thematic expectations, lacking the constraint of specific profit indicators, thus responding more intensely to marginal changes in the same risk appetite and more easily diverging from the stock market in terms of timing and amplitude amidst slight external fluctuations.

World Cup Excitement and Platform Marketing: How Emotions Feed into Trends

At the moment when the macro environment is described as "warming up" and the crypto market has recently shown signs of rebound, HTX chose to go live at 20:00 (UTC+8) on June 24, and specifically mentioned in the announcement to "combine the World Cup excitement with the warming macro environment" to discuss the crypto market rebound, which is actually a typical emotional amplification operation: wrapping professional topics with popular themes to lower the barriers for retail participation, transforming what was originally an "in-house crypto rebound discussion" into a more easily spread social topic, thus bringing external attention and lightly held funds back to the trading interface after last night's drop and at the point of risk appetite recovery. The report did not disclose the specific content and conclusions of this live broadcast, but from the design of the theme, the core demand is not to provide definitive fundamental answers, but to reinforce the emotional anchor of “the market has stabilized, and discussions are worth participating in” through the narrative combination of “World Cup + warming macro environment + market rebound”.

The resonance between major sporting events and crypto platform marketing is not new. The report has already pointed out that crypto trading platforms often leverage major sporting events and popular IPs for marketing to enhance user activity and discussions, with historical instances of linkage, whose direct effects often manifest in short-term new user registrations, deposit and withdrawal frequency, and the trading volume of highly volatile cryptocurrencies, belonging to a typical “trading activity boost”. In the current environment of overall preference recovery for risk assets, the marginal effects of such actions will be amplified—the World Cup excitement provides a traffic entry point, and the restoration of macro sentiment offers a psychological foundation for placing orders. The overlap of both easily creates several days of increased volume and volatility in the market. However, from a mid-term perspective, the movements of crypto assets are still subject to harder constraints like macro interest rates, liquidity, and the profit expectations of related assets. The topics and emotions created by the platform leveraging sports IP can only accelerate existing trends and elevate short-term beta, but cannot reverse fundamental directions. For investors, the key remains to return to the changes in performance and macro variables themselves, rather than being misled by a single event or topic.

There are Still Tipping Points on the Path of Risk Appetite Recovery

Viewing the slight rebound of storage stocks before the market opened on June 24 after last night’s big drop, the recent strengthening of the crypto market, and the platform actively enhancing topics using the World Cup and “warming macro environment” together, it appears more like a phase of risk appetite recovery after panic, rather than a confirmed new round of trend market. The erosion of supercomputing profits by semiconductor manufacturers, coupled with financial pressures on cloud vendors and potential turning points in capital expenditures indicated by Serenity, directly points to the uncertainty in the mid-term fundamentals of storage and AI-related assets: if profit redistribution leads cloud vendors to cut or delay related investments, the current emotional recovery could easily be suppressed again by performance realities. Therefore, whether storage and its related assets can exit a sustained market depends on how the internal profit redistribution within the AI supercomputing chain evolves, especially whether cloud vendors remain willing to maintain high-intensity capital expenditures for storage and computing power under pressure. The upcoming post-market performance announcement from Micron and its guidance on storage and AI-related demand and capital expenditures will become an important observation window. For investors, in the short term, they can utilize emotions and hot topics to enhance trading efficiency, but position and cycle judgments should still be firmly anchored to the changes in corporate performance and capital expenditure guidance, rather than misinterpreting the phase of warming as an unconditional return of risk appetite.

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