Multiple data platforms and media recently cited on-chain data from CryptoQuant and spent transaction, pointing out that the selling activity of Bitcoin holders who have held for over five years (OG) has significantly cooled in the first half of 2026. The related 90-day metrics have dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years. Compared to the high selling pressure peaks driven by OG taking profits in multiple rounds during 2024-2025, the selling pressure from long-term holders is currently seen as significantly weakened. However, just as some viewpoints discuss "whether we are nearing the bottom of the cycle," CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju publicly stated on June 24, 2026, suggesting that Strategy temporarily stop buying Bitcoin, reasoning that it is necessary to wait for its cash reserves and dividend coverage to recover to a more robust level. This statement is summarized as maintaining caution regarding aggressive accumulation strategies rather than simply turning bearish on price prospects. Parallel to on-chain and institutional signals, the American fast-food chain Steak 'n Shake has accepted Bitcoin payments since May 2025, stating that it can save about 50% in transaction fees compared to traditional payment channels, providing a specific example of Bitcoin's cost advantage in physical retail scenarios. This article will discuss the current cycle position of Bitcoin and potential risk-reward structure around three intersecting signals: "weakened OG selling pressure, cautious accumulation pace from institutions and enterprises, and slow progress of offline payment adoption."
OG Selling Declines After Five Years: Selling Pressure Falls to Two-Year Low
Multiple data platforms based on on-chain data from CryptoQuant and spent transaction indicate that the most significant recent change comes from early holders who have held Bitcoin for more than five years: the selling volume of these OGs has notably decreased in the first half of 2026, and the related 90-day metric has dipped to its lowest range in nearly two years. In contrast, from 2024 to 2025, several rounds of price increases were accompanied by concentrated profit-taking from those holding for over five years, with this group being viewed as one of the significant sources of selling pressure at that time. The outflow of these long-term chips has now been significantly put on "pause," suggesting that structural supply-side pressures have clearly eased compared to the previous two years, which has been interpreted by many media as one of the on-chain signals that Bitcoin may be approaching a cycle bottom.
From a behavioral logic perspective, "old coins are not moving" conveys at least two layers of market information: first, after experiencing multiple rounds of cashing out in 2024-2025, the OGs still holding for over five years do not have a strong urge to cash out at the current price range, and long-term holders are more inclined to continue observing rather than sell on peaks; second, as the circulation frequency of these chips declines, the passive supply of "aged coins" available for market sale is reduced, leading to short-term price fluctuations being more dominated by short-term traders and new capital entering. Coupled with the 90-day metric falling to a two-year low, this phase can be viewed as "the selling pressure from long-term holders recedes, with the willingness for incremental buying becoming a key variable," while whether the cycle has already bottomed depends on whether sufficient new demand emerges to absorb the released pressure in this reduced-pressure environment.
Looking Back at 2024-2025: OG High-Point Cashing Out
Looking back at the previous cycle, multiple data platforms and media cited statistics related to CryptoQuant and spent transaction, noting that in 2024 and 2025, there were multiple rounds of profit-taking stages led by early holders. It is clear from on-chain data that "aged coins," held for over five years, became active and concentrated after strong price increases, with the related 90-day selling and monetization metrics rising in tandem, becoming one of the main sources of spot selling pressure at that time. These phases coincided with the periods when Bitcoin was entering a correction after strong market rallies, forming a typical on-chain rhythm of "price increase—OG cashing out in batches—selling pressure increases—price enters fluctuations or corrections," and hence has been viewed as an important reference signal for judging phased tops in the industry.
In contrast to that period, the current 90-day selling metrics corresponding to chips held for over five years have noticeably fallen to their lowest levels in nearly two years, signifying a significant reduction in proactive cash-out behavior among early holders. Historical experience shows that peaks of OG selling are often accompanied by the tail end of market rallies or mid-term corrections after strong gains. However, the current on-chain scenario presents a distinctly different picture: the high-level profit-taking pattern seen repeatedly in the past two years has temporarily receded, and in the absence of large-scale OG selling pressure, the market is closer to a compression phase driven more by new capital and short-term trading while waiting for the next directional choice.
On-Chain Bullish but CryptoQuant Founder Turns Cautious
During the stage where OG selling pressure is receding and various on-chain platforms are giving bullish signals, the institutions providing these data have offered relatively calm operational advice. On June 24, 2026, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated directly that Strategy should temporarily stop buying Bitcoin, rather than following the intuitive notion of "reduced selling pressure = bold accumulation." He limited the premise to: waiting for the entity's cash reserves and dividend coverage to recover to a more robust level before considering re-advancing accumulation strategies.
From these two statements, it is clear that his focus is not on whether there is still selling space on the supply side but rather on whether corporate-level entities can endure further price volatility and liquidity loss pressure while maintaining normal dividend payments. In other words, in his view, the current reduction in on-chain OG selling pressure does indeed weaken external selling factors, but this is not enough to offset the weak segments of the balance sheet itself, thus necessitating caution regarding "aggressive accumulation strategies." This forms two parallel dimensions of signals, rather than simple oppositions: one is that on-chain supply-demand data are pointing to a phased easing, and the other is that corporate financial safety cushions have not yet restored to a level that can support continued leveraged betting, reminding the market that when assessing cycle positions, one cannot only consider on-chain bullishness or bearishness but must also incorporate the stress capacity of balance sheets into the consideration.
Weakened Selling Pressure and Institutional Caution Price Game
From the supply side, the significant decline in the selling volume of early holders who have held for over five years, with the related 90-day metrics falling to nearly two-year low levels, indicates that the supply of "aged chips" passively flowing into the market is noticeably reduced. In contrast to the previous stages where multiple rounds of OG profit-taking amplified the downward momentum during 2024-2025, during that time, every sharp price fluctuation would be accompanied by a portion of long-held chips being cashed out. Now, the reduction in this additional selling pressure objectively lowers the short-term risk of similar "waterfall" downward movements. However, "old coins are not moving" primarily reduces marginal selling supply and does not automatically translate into new active buying. If the demand side does not increase proportionately, prices are more likely to exhibit limited downward space but lack sustained upward driving force, resulting in a zone of oscillation rather than a straightforward reversal.
The constraints from the demand side are clearly reflected in the constraints of balance sheets. The current environment is summarized as "reduced selling pressure but a more cautious buyer": on one side, there is an easing of on-chain supply pressures, while on the other, enterprises and institutions need to prioritize restoring cash reserves and dividend coverage capability before they have the capacity to bear additional volatility risks. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju's suggestion on June 24 to temporarily stop buying Bitcoin is precisely because it is necessary to wait for cash reserves and dividend coverage to return to a more robust level. This stance points to a financial constraint on aggressive accumulation strategies, rather than a simple bearish stance on price. In summary, once the selling pressure from the supply side of OGs recedes and the capital side remains in a phase of "controlling positions and slow-paced accumulation," the price path often reflects that the tail risk of downside has been weakened, but raising the central tendency depends on new capital drivers or a restoration of risk appetite. This mismatch between supply and demand itself is a key variable that must be continuously tracked in current cycle assessments.
Steak 'n Shake Halves Fees and Offline Cashier
Steak 'n Shake, an American fast-food chain, disclosed after integrating Bitcoin payments in May 2025 that it can save approximately 50% in transaction fees compared to existing payment processing channels. This visible cost improvement provides a firsthand example from physical retail to support the narrative that "using currency for offline cashiers is cheaper." Unlike the highly volatile secondary market prices, the expansion of such payment scenarios is generally slow-paced, but it may elevate the usage demand of the network in a longer time dimension and increase the proportion of being used as a daily tool rather than merely a trading asset. By placing this storyline alongside the current decline of selling pressure from OGs holding for more than five years to a near two-year low, and the trend of institutions turning to place greater emphasis on balance sheet safety in accumulation pace during the same period, Bitcoin currently appears to be in a transitional phase where supply-side selling pressure is clearing out and demand-side transition from speculation to usage is gradually taking place, rather than having entered a unilateral trend phase dominated by new capital.
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