Written by: Techub News Compilation

Introduction

During the World Economic Forum (WEF) held in Davos, Switzerland, the well-known podcast "All-In" recorded a special program at USA House. As an iconic figure in the cryptocurrency industry, Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong was invited to attend and share his observations and thoughts in the presence of global policymakers. This dialogue comes at a time when the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory environment is undergoing a critical turning point, and the industry is accelerating its integration with traditional finance. Armstrong's insights are crucial for understanding the direction of the cryptocurrency market in the next two years.

Summary

• The U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory environment has undergone a fundamental shift from "unlawfully kill" to seeking to establish clear rules, thanks to positive political momentum.
• The three core trends in the cryptocurrency sector for the next 1-2 years are: on-chain trading of all assets, explosive growth of prediction markets, and the widespread adoption of stablecoin payments (especially cross-border B2B payments).
• The attitude of traditional banks toward cryptocurrency has shifted from resistance to "embrace or be disrupted," with coexistence of cooperation and competition, making the stablecoin bill (GENIUS Act) a key battleground.
• Cryptocurrency and AI are converging, with AI agents becoming significant users of cryptocurrency payments and wallets, driving the next wave of application innovation.
• Asset tokenization (from private equity to funds) will greatly democratize investment opportunities, lowering barriers and friction, but a balance must be found between corporate governance and liquidity.

Regulatory Shift: From "Unlawfully Kill" to "World Crypto Capital"

At the beginning of the interview, host Jason Calacanis posed a sharp question: What has been the biggest change in dealing with regulators over the years? Brian Armstrong's answer was candid; he described how the Biden administration initially attempted to "unlawfully kill" the U.S. cryptocurrency industry, while former President Trump viewed it as an important political issue and promised to make the U.S. the "world crypto capital" during his campaign. Armstrong believes that after Trump took office, there were indeed efforts to establish clear rules, which are vital for U.S. cryptocurrency companies and consumers.

Armstrong noted that approximately 52 million people in the U.S. have used cryptocurrency, representing a significant voter bloc that craves clear regulatory rules and better financial services. Additionally, this is a matter of global competitiveness. He cited that China has announced the payment of interest on its central bank digital currency (CBDC), while some of the largest stablecoin issuers are still operating overseas. A clear U.S. regulatory framework would help attract this capital and innovation back home.

This shift in regulatory attitude has brought substantial progress to the industry. Armstrong revealed that among the top 20 banks globally, five are currently using Coinbase's technology to build their cryptocurrency infrastructure and integrate it into their products. Meanwhile, giants like BlackRock have publicly stated their intent to tokenize all of their funds. Financial institutions are going "on-chain" at scale.

Stablecoin Bill: The "Red Line" and Win-Win between Banks and Cryptocurrency

The discussion naturally shifted to the core of current regulations—stablecoins. Armstrong emphasized that the GENIUS Act, passed last year, is a milestone for the industry. This bill mandates that U.S.-regulated stablecoins must hold 100% of their asset reserves in short-term U.S. Treasury securities (e.g., 30-day Treasury bills). This stands in stark contrast to the traditional bank's "fractional reserve" model, which only retains a portion of deposits for loans, thus facing higher risks of bank runs and heavier regulatory burdens.

"In a world of 100% reserve stablecoins, you don't need a bank license, and people can safely hold assets," Armstrong explained. He referenced the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) run, which was caused by a mismatch in its assets and liabilities, leading to difficulties during interest rate fluctuations. The 100% reserve model for stablecoins is inherently safer.

However, this bill has also touched the cheese of traditional banking. Armstrong revealed that some banking lobby groups are attempting to overturn the GENIUS Act, which was just passed four months ago. He is very firm on this point: "This is a red line for us. We must accept that this has become law and will continue to exist." Yet, he also believes that banks and cryptocurrency companies can achieve a win-win in this new world. Many bank CEOs are beginning to actively embrace cryptocurrency, viewing it as a "top priority" and a "matter of survival."

Regarding specific stablecoins, Armstrong mentioned that Coinbase has a close relationship with Circle (issuer of USDC), which is currently the largest regulated stablecoin in the U.S. He noted that the Tether (USDT) team has "done a lot of good globally," especially in emerging markets with high inflation to meet dollar demand, but pointed out that it currently does not comply with the GENIUS Act regulations. He predicts that there may be "two Tethers" in the future: a U.S. version governing U.S. regulations and an international version in a "Wild West" style.

2026 Outlook: Three Major Trends in Cryptocurrency

When asked about the most interesting trends in cryptocurrency, Armstrong did not discuss individual projects but outlined three macro directions:

1. The Everything Exchange: Exchanges will no longer be limited to trading cryptocurrencies. All asset classes, including stocks and prediction markets, will gradually transition to on-chain trading. Coinbase is collaborating with platforms like Kalshi for prediction markets and is even considering launching its own prediction market product.

2. Explosive Growth of Prediction Markets: This niche is experiencing "crazy growth."

3. Widespread Adoption of Stablecoin Payments, Especially Cross-Border B2B Payments: This has been the fastest-growing area over the past year. Many small and medium enterprises are facing the pain points of cross-border payments taking up to 7 days and high exchange rate fees. To address this, Coinbase has launched the "Coinbase Business" product, providing cross-border payment, invoicing, tax, and accounting services, currently with high demand and numerous customers waiting to onboard.

Regarding when stablecoin payments might become common in everyday consumer scenarios (like transferring money between friends), Armstrong believes that B2B cross-border payments are the primary driving force at present, as it addresses real business pain points.

Asset Tokenization: Democratizing Investment and Liquidation Revolution

Asset tokenization is another huge opportunity that Armstrong is optimistic about. He envisions that in the future, private equity firms can raise capital digitally, even potentially going public entirely on-chain, which would significantly reduce costs and friction, democratizing wealth creation.

He criticized the current chaotic state of the private equity secondary market: some intermediaries raise funds from dentists and high-net-worth individuals to purchase shares in popular companies like SpaceX and charge upfront fees of up to 10% (load-in fee), highlighting the huge demand for liquidity in quality private equity assets and the inefficiency of current channels.

Coinbase has launched the "Coinbase Tokenize" product to help funds, real estate projects, or any other assets to be tokenized. Armstrong pointed out that top funds like BlackRock and Apollo have publicly expressed their desire to tokenize all products. This will democratize investment opportunities, allowing billions of "unbrokered" adults worldwide to access quality assets, rather than relying solely on labor income.

Of course, tokenization also brings challenges, especially for private companies that need to maintain control and employee incentives. Armstrong emphasized that tokenization must occur under corporate permission to balance liquidity needs with long-term retention mechanisms for corporate development.

The Inevitable Convergence of Cryptocurrency and AI

As a tech leader, Armstrong has profound insights into AI as well. He believes that cryptocurrency and AI are the two most important technological trends in the world today, with their convergence point being AI agents.

"AI agents need to get work done and be paid, while the entire traditional financial system is built on 'Know Your Customer' (KYC), which requires knowing there is a real person behind it," Armstrong pointed out. "AI agents will use stablecoins and cryptocurrency wallets." This means that cryptocurrency infrastructure will become a key payment layer for the AI economy.

Regarding the employment impact of AI, Armstrong takes a "tech optimism" stance. He cited agricultural automation as an example, where 80% of the U.S. population worked in agriculture at the beginning of the last century, now down to about 3%, yet society has created entirely new types of jobs. He believes that the job displacement caused by AI is not a bad thing; it will free humans from tedious labor and lead to a more abundant world, though a transition period is inevitable.

Within Coinbase, AI has deeply embedded itself in operations. The company has deployed internal AI models that connect all data sources (Slack, Google Docs, Salesforce, Confluence, etc.). Armstrong now uses it not only to draft memos but also as a "reverse prompting" tool, prompting him about company dynamics or strategic divergences he might overlook, acting as a "coach" or "mentor" for the CEO.

The Change in Davos: From ESG to Pragmatic Business

Lastly, Armstrong shared his impressions from this trip to Davos. Compared to previous years, he believes the forum's atmosphere has undergone a significant change: it has shifted from focusing on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance), DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion), and "global governance" issues to a more pragmatic discussion of business and transaction facilitation. He attributes this shift partly to a change in the forum's leadership and the demonstration effect of strong economic growth in the U.S. under Trump's policies (high GDP, low inflation).

"Growth does not come from government spending," Armstrong summarized, "but from deregulation, low-cost energy, clear rules, and allowing the private sector to compete at a level playing field. Capitalism is the greatest win-win." In his view, the shift in the direction of the Davos Forum is a collective acknowledgment by global business elites of a pragmatic path to development.

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