TL;DR

• On June 23, international oil prices continued to decline, with the restoration of oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz being a short-term pressure source.
• The temporary arrangements between the U.S. and Iran include a negotiation window of about 60 days, and there is a phased relaxation of Iran's oil sales restrictions.
• The SPR remains at a low level since 1983; if negotiations break down or shipping is obstructed, downward pressure on oil prices will be constrained.

On June 23, international oil prices continued to be under pressure. As of the time of the report, intraday trading showed Brent crude and WTI crude each declined slightly, continuing the significant drop of the previous trading day. The market's focus has shifted from military risks in the Middle East to actual supply changes following the U.S.-Iran temporary arrangements. According to Reuters, two crude oil tankers, carrying a total of slightly less than 2 million barrels of oil, passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, indicating that traffic in this key shipping route is recovering. For the oil market, whether ships can proceed and whether Iranian oil can be sold has a more direct impact on short-term prices than diplomatic rhetoric.

Oil prices react to "the Strait is open"

The direct trigger for this round of oil price decline is the restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical oil shipping channels. Under previous tense conditions, the market was once worried that shipping interruptions would swiftly affect Middle Eastern oil exports, and supply risks were factored into prices. Now, with two tankers passing through the Strait again, traders have a clearer signal of reality: at least some oil transport is resuming.

This is why oil prices did not rebound significantly on June 23 after a nearly 4% drop on the previous trading day. Intraday quotes showed Brent hovering around $77 per barrel and WTI fluctuating around $74 per barrel. The market is reflecting that "the worst-case scenario has not temporarily occurred" in the prices.

However, oil prices have only retreated and have not entirely returned to the calm state prior to the conflicts. The restoration of passage through the Strait can reduce short-term panic but does not eliminate the possibility of a breakdown in agreements, renewed shipping obstacles, or changes in sanctions arrangements. For the crude oil market, the current situation is more like a cooling of supply disruption risks rather than a resolution of Middle Eastern risks.

The 60-day window allows temporary easing of Iranian oil sales

Another clue to the decline in oil prices is the temporary arrangements between the U.S. and Iran leaving a window for Iranian oil sales.

According to Axios's disclosure of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the arrangement includes about a 60-day nuclear negotiation window, allowing Iran to sell oil within that period. Reuters cites a senior U.S. official as saying that Iran can begin selling oil and fuel immediately after the agreement is signed.

This has a direct impact on the global oil market. Previously, the market was worried about two things happening simultaneously: on one hand, the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, and on the other, continued restrictions on Iranian supply. If shipping routes are restored and the Iranian oil sales restrictions are phased out, the most tense supply situations will be delayed.

However, the "60 days" itself is also a limiting condition. It indicates that the current arrangement is still a negotiation window, not a final agreement. If Washington and Tehran cannot advance a more stable arrangement within that window period, the expiration of waivers or temporary permissions could see Iranian exports, sanctions enforcement, and shipping safety re-influence oil prices.

Therefore, the market remains cautious about continued downward movements in oil prices. A short-term window for selling oil can ease panic but does not guarantee a long-term recovery in Iranian exports, nor does it ensure the continuous smooth flow of the Strait of Hormuz.

Political news may still disrupt oil price declines

The current fluctuations in oil prices are still highly dependent on political news.

The U.S.-Iran temporary arrangements have improved short-term sentiment, but mutual trust between the two sides is not solid. Documents disclosed by Axios and reports from Reuters indicate that the core of the agreement is still to buy time for subsequent nuclear negotiations. In other words, the current outcome is closer to "letting oil flow for now" rather than resolving the long-term differences between the U.S. and Iran.

Previous hardline statements surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have already shown the market the sensitivity of this risk. Any new military threats, shipping restrictions, or signs of negotiation obstacles could lead crude oil prices to rejoin the risk premium. For traders, what matters most now is not how optimistic the statements are, but whether tankers can continuously pass through and whether Iran can continue selling.

This also explains the contradictory behavior of oil prices: supply-side signals are easing, leading to price declines; yet the drop has not fully wiped out previous gains because the temporary arrangements have not yet become long-term guarantees.

Low SPR limits U.S. emergency buffer

As oil prices decline, the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve remains at multi-year lows.

Public reports citing data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicate that as of the week of June 12, the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve stood at about 340 million barrels, marking a low since 1983. This figure is not the main reason for the current drop in oil prices, but it sets a risk boundary for the market: if the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted again, negotiations break down, or commercial inventories decrease simultaneously, the strategic buffer available to the U.S. is thinner than in the past.

Moreover, Reuters' survey shows that the market expects U.S. crude, distillate, and gasoline inventories to potentially decline last week. If subsequent inventory data confirms this decline, the downside potential for oil prices may be restricted, especially with Middle Eastern risks not being fully resolved.

The clearest short-term logic in the oil market now is that the restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the window for Iranian oil sales have alleviated supply panic. However, the 60-day negotiation deadline, insufficient mutual trust between the U.S. and Iran, and low U.S. strategic reserves all make it difficult for the market to interpret this round of oil price decline as a complete clearing of risks. As long as there is a disturbance on either end of shipping or negotiations, oil prices may still react rapidly.

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