Written by: Game Mine Alliance

As Web3 games recede from the hustle and bubble of 2021, the remaining questions become more direct: Do games still have a chance? Will AI become the next variable? How should we reinterpret community, KOL, growth, and investment logic? This issue's interview features investor and content creator BitWu, discussing personal investment systems, bull and bear cognition, AI Agents, stablecoins, RWA, the failure analysis of Web3 games, and the next round of opportunities, resulting in a very authentic conversation about the industry's second half. Rather than chasing narratives, it resembles a deep dialogue about "how to survive, how to judge opportunities, and how to avoid repeating mistakes."

【Key Quotes】

• Not only must we understand the Crypto market, but we must also have a deeper understanding of the global financial market, stronger information filtering abilities, and better position discipline.

• In the era of AI, Crypto may become the most suitable financial system for machines to use.

• AI can imitate and gather information, but it is hard to replicate the long-accumulated style and credit of an individual.

• The real logic of games should be that they are exceptionally fun, so users stay, communities naturally form, and gradually an economic system and asset state develop.

【Selected Key Points】

Q1: If you were to define yourself, are you more like an investor, content creator, researcher, or entrepreneur?

BitWu: I see myself more as an investor and a practitioner of long-termism. Because in this industry, one cannot avoid the words "investment." Whether you create content, conduct research, or do other things, it ultimately returns to how to improve the investment process, how to find a path and model suited to oneself, and establish one's investment system. As for long-termism, I always view my life system as a long-term map. I have many things I want to accomplish and hope to meet like-minded individuals in this process. Whether it is building trust, finding friends to work with, or investing itself, long-termism is an unavoidable symbol. The label of entrepreneur doesn't quite fit me because, in terms of character, I am not very suited for entrepreneurship; I have tried it, but the results have mostly been failures.

Q2: Why have you been willing to stay in the Crypto industry for so many years? What attracts you the most?

BitWu: I am willing to stay in this industry because I can see the fastest changes in the world here. In Crypto, one can observe many cutting-edge concepts and technologies, which are more or less combined with Blockchain, including the currently most discussed AI, which has some inseparable connections with Crypto. Another reason is that this industry exposes the most naked aspects of human nature. Crypto is not just a speculative financial market; it encompasses technology, finance, social psychology, global liquidity, as well as narrative dissemination and the game of human nature. It is hard to see so many things combined in other singular industries.

Q3: After experiencing several rounds of bull and bear markets, what is the biggest change in your understanding?

BitWu: I believe there are three main changes. First, the pursuit of wealth has shifted to the pursuit of "survive first, then pursue compound interest." When entering the space, many people feel that this industry can earn money that other industries cannot, and it is normal to have that mindset of seeking riches. But later I realized that while there are indeed many opportunities, the premise is that you cannot die. You need capital to survive in this market to continue to pursue compound interest with every bit of money earned. Second, moving from believing only in stories and narratives to being more willing to verify structures. In the early days, people were easily moved by a certain story or narrative, but if you want to be a qualified investor, you cannot remain on a narrative level; you need to verify and deeply think about whether the underlying structure holds. Third, I began to truly establish my own investment system. After going through bull and bear phases and experiencing asset zeroing, one begins to seriously consider whether to establish an investment system and how to build one that suits oneself.

Q4: What traps do newcomers tend to fall into the most in Crypto?

BitWu: The first mistake newcomers are most likely to make is mistaking the rewards of a bull market for their own abilities. Most people enter the space during a bull market because when the market is good, various wealth myths circulate. Many people come in and make money, possibly earning in one or two months what they could not earn in years in Web2, mistakenly believing they are exceptionally capable. Once this understanding takes hold, it is highly likely they will lose money later. Markets do not rise forever, and when a bull market turns into a bear market, it does so mercilessly. Many people end up not only losing the money they earned in the bull market but also their principal. I had a similar experience; I made a lot of money during the ICO phase in 2017, then thought I was an excellent investor, started to invest recklessly, and ultimately lost all the BTC and ETH I had earned. The second mistake is the lack of position management ability. Without position management, it is essentially a lack of discipline, making it easy to operate positions based on emotions. Many people do not heed advice from predecessors on this issue; only after losing money do they truly understand. The third mistake is focusing only on profit when opportunities arise without considering risk. I think the biggest difference between OGs and newcomers is that OGs look at risks first rather than fixating solely on profits.

Q5: What abilities should newcomers cultivate the most?

BitWu: I believe the most important ability newcomers should cultivate is risk recognition ability. Researching projects, trading ability, and information acquisition abilities are all important, but they should come afterwards. Because this industry is not short of opportunities, as long as you do not die, opportunities will always arise. Risk recognition ability can be developed gradually. For instance, when you encounter various information daily, you can record your feedback, judgments, decisions at the time, as well as the outcomes they lead to. Through continuous comparison and reflection, you will gradually develop risk prediction and recognition abilities. A better approach is to establish a small group, find one or two slightly more capable friends to help you with risk recognition, which is also very important.

Q6: What do you think is the biggest difference between this cycle and 2021?

BitWu: My biggest feeling in 2021 is that it was still a retail-driven Crypto market. Back then, many projects could take off based on one concept, one community, and one sentiment of liquidity. People witnessed the so-called altcoin season, where many altcoins could increase by dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of times. However, the biggest difference in this round is that Crypto is slowly transitioning from a speculative market to a financial infrastructure market. Now everyone talks the most about AI, stablecoins, RWA, ETFs, institutions, and compliance. This indicates that Crypto is no longer just a cycle within retail in the crypto space, but has become part of the global financial market, although it is still just a small part. This also means that it will be harder for ordinary people to make money in the market. In 2021, as long as you were bold, you could earn a lot of Beta. But now, not only do you need to understand the Crypto market, but you also have to understand the global financial market, have stronger information filtering capabilities, and better position discipline, to potentially earn more money.

Q7: In the next 2-3 years, what directions will you focus on the most?

BitWu: I will focus on three directions: stablecoins, RWA, and AI. First is stablecoins. Stablecoins are currently one of the few things in Crypto that already have real demand, real users, and real transaction volume. They are solving issues in global payment settlements, dollar liquidity, and Internet finance. Compared to many concepts that are still stuck at the narrative level, stablecoins have emerged. The second is RWA. RWA is not simply about moving assets on-chain, but has the opportunity to help traditional finance and other sectors prepare assets for on-chain better. This is a direction traditional finance is also willing to adopt. The third is AI. Particularly in the next 2-3 years, if AI Agents can become widespread, they will need identities, accounts, wallets, payments, asset management, and incentive layers, and Crypto can provide these infrastructures for Agents. Therefore, the convergence of AI and Crypto will become increasingly evident.

Q8: Where do you think the biggest impact of AI on Crypto may occur?

BitWu: I think AI may transform Crypto from "an asset speculative by humans" to "a financial track used by machines." If in the future a large number of AI Agents serve us, then Crypto is likely to become the channel for the flow of funds for AI Agents. Future AI Agents can hold Crypto, call on-chain protocols, independently purchase data, buy computing power, manage assets, automatically settle, and even conduct risk control. So I believe that the biggest impact of AI on Crypto is to make Crypto the most suitable financial system for machines in the AI era. It is a 7×24 hours, global, programmable, borderless financial system.

Q9: What kind of AI + Gaming products are you looking forward to?

BitWu: I look forward to a type of game that evolves. This game can reshape scenes, explore, battle, manage, and socialize based on the player's experiences and preferences. You might understand this as being like an AI director; everyone may be playing the same game, but the content each person engages with is not entirely the same. It might be based on the same story plot, but different players' main lines are different. The combination of AI and GameFi can be seen in three layers. The first layer is reducing development cost. For example, during this period, I used Codex and created over 20 different games with my child. The game adapts to his preferences and ideas, and he changes it if he finds it uninteresting. The second layer is creating more realistic AI NPCs. In the past, NPCs in games were very rigid and lacked human touch, but AI can allow NPCs to have more natural conversations, companionship, and help players with tasks. The third layer is forming a "living game world." AI can drive long-term memory, recording player behavior feedback and mental feedback, ultimately leading to an evolution of the world state. That may come closer to our imagination of the metaverse.

Q10: In the AI era, will KOLs be replaced?

BitWu: Some KOLs will be replaced. If a KOL is merely an information transporter or repeats information already available in the market, and then has AI help them collect, categorize, and summarize, then this type will be largely replaced by AI. Because AI is faster, cheaper, and more stable, the significance of humans doing this work diminishes. However, truly valuable KOLs will not be replaced. Truly valuable KOLs do more than just carry information; they have their own experiences, judgments, aesthetics, and expressions after experiencing risks. AI can assist in gathering information and summarizing materials, but it cannot replace the experience of bull and bear markets nor endure the psychological impact of volatility with real money. AI can imitate some things and gather some things, but it is difficult to replicate a person's long-accumulated style and credit. In the future, the threshold for KOLs will only get higher, not entirely replaced by AI.

Q11: Why did many Web3 games fail in the past? Why will players stay in the future?

BitWu: In 2021, GameFi was once very hot, but its rise and disappearance were extremely quick. The real logic of games should have been: the game is particularly fun, so users stay, communities naturally form, and then gradually certain economic systems and asset states develop. However, many Web3 games in the past turned into Play to Earn. People came here purely to farm gold; project parties frantically financed, rushed to issue tokens, or attracted users with air drop expectations to mine gold. In the end, there was huge sell pressure, resulting in the project entering a death spiral. This process essentially substituted the economic model for the enjoyment of the game itself. If GameFi has a chance to rise again in the future, I think there are three important directions: AI, social interaction, and UGC. AI can make the game world livelier, make NPCs more humanized, and align games more with personal experiences; social interaction can keep players engaged; UGC can allow content to continuously grow. A good Web3 game should first make users feel it's fun, then retain more people to form a positive cycle rather than returning to a death spiral.

Q12: If you were to invest in a Web3 game now, what would you value the most?

BitWu: If I were to invest in a Web3 game now, I would no longer focus primarily on project background, token design, dual-token models, gold mining mechanisms, and air drop expectations as before. The most important thing now is whether the team can create a long-term game world. I will look at whether this team has previously created any impressive games, whether they understand players, have real gaming experience, and possess funds and patience to endure bear markets. Many past Web3 games were not truly making games but rather financing products, with the game being just an exterior. The PPT was filled with economic models, NFT staking, dual-token revenues, and air drop expectations, without showing where the fun aspects of the game truly lie. So now the key is: Is this game really fun, can it be played, and can the team actually deliver it? In terms of data, I also won't just look at registered user numbers, wallet count, or NFT purchase records. These might only indicate that early marketing was done well, but rapid increases can just as quickly decline. What truly needs to be observed are game durations, replay rates, player compositions, and whether the game primarily drives financial behavior or gaming behavior. It must be primarily driven by gaming behavior rather than financial behavior. As for token design, I think it should be as simple as possible in the early stages. Many projects do not need to design tokens just for the sake of tokens. In the mid to late stages, it can be designed based on the game's development, rather than making the economic model overly complicated from the beginning.

Q13: Why do many projects seek collaboration with KOLs, appearing to have exposure, but fail to achieve actual growth?

BitWu: First, the project parties need to ask themselves if they have clearly thought through which area of growth they want to focus on in this promotional cycle. Different objectives will lead to completely different results. If the goal is to enhance brand visibility in the Chinese-speaking region, then the strategy should be designed around exposure, finding channels and KOLs that can bring brand visibility. If the goal is user retention, for example, if CEX or DEX needs a large number of users to stay and trade, then community-oriented KOLs must be sought, looking for those who can truly bring user behavior and conversion. Second, the platforms must be chosen correctly. Some content is suitable for Twitter, some for Instagram, some for YouTube, and some for news media. Different products a have different suitable exposure channels, each yielding different effects. Third, the KOLs must be rightly selected. If you want to achieve growth, seek KOLs with strong community capabilities; if you want exposure, seek KOLs with high market visibility, long-term reputation, and built trust. Many times, poor growth can result from project parties not having clear goals, the wrong platforms being selected, or the wrong targets for promotion being chosen.

Q14: Over the next three years, will communities become more important or less important?

BitWu: I believe communities will become increasingly important but will undergo differentiation. In the past, when people mentioned communities, they might think of air drop communities, signaling communities, or task communities. Such communities will gradually disappear in the future. Because users join these communities not out of project recognition, but for certain moneymaking opportunities like exploiting, information gaps, or wealth codes. They may appear to have large numbers of members but essentially represent a false boom. Real valuable communities in the future need to possess three factors. First, trust must be established. This trust can be based on a person or a certain belief. The key to a community is consensus, just like the early Bitcoin community. This will not change. Second, there must be a common goal. For example, working together to find the next breakout opportunity or making long-term investments centered around one or two projects. The community must continuously work on a certain theme. Third, online relationships need to shift toward more long-term, real relationships. Better communities in the future should establish firmer and more lasting interpersonal connections through offline activities. The truly valuable aspect of a community is its people, so communities that can foster these human connections will become increasingly important.

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