1. Record Outflows from ETF Funds, Structural Divergence Evident
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with a total net outflow of $6.35 billion over the past 30 days, setting the record for the highest outflow since its launch in January 2024. The Ethereum spot ETF has also experienced continuous outflows, indicating that institutions are overall cautious about holding mainstream cryptocurrencies.
There is an internal divergence in fund structure: ETFs in niche public blockchain sectors like Solana have recorded slight net inflows, showing signs of capital rotating from Bitcoin to less mainstream sectors, but the overall size is limited and insufficient to reverse the market trend.

2. Institutional Entry Channels Further Expanded
Galaxy Digital has partnered with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management to lower the participation threshold for crypto ETPs from $25 million to $5 million, reaching more high-net-worth clients. In the long term, this expands the entry channels for institutional funds, but in the short term, it has not brought significant new capital to the market.

3. Market Enters Stock Game, Awaiting Macro Catalysts
The current crypto market fear and greed index is in the "fear" range, with no large net inflows into stablecoins, primarily relying on stock funds for competition. Geopolitical risk premiums continue to decrease, and the market is waiting for new macro signals like U.S. Federal Reserve inflation data, with overall volatility continuing to decrease and the market moving in a narrow range.

4. Mixed Bullish and Bearish Factors in Solana Ecosystem
Positive Factors: Since June, Circle has issued approximately $500 million USDC on the Solana chain, significantly increasing on-chain liquidity; the Solana Foundation is fully promoting the development of the perpetual contract ecosystem across the chain, with the Alpenglow consensus upgrade expected to go live on the mainnet in the third quarter, reducing transaction confirmation times to 150 milliseconds.
Negative Factors: This month, over $1 billion worth of tokens in the Solana ecosystem will be unlocked in succession, maintaining selling pressure on the supply side, which is suppressing prices.

Mainstream Cryptocurrency Market Conditions
BTC (Bitcoin)

• Current Price Range: Narrow fluctuations around $64,000, with a reduced volatility over 24 hours, showing relative strength against declines and acting as a haven in the current market.

• Key Price Levels
◦ Support: $62,000 (recent lower boundary of fluctuations), $60,000 (psychological integer level, strong medium-term support)
◦ Resistance: $65,500-$66,000 (short-term accumulation zone), $68,000 (medium-term bullish-bearish dividing line)

• Market Logic: The bearish side is suppressed by continuous ETF outflows, a strengthening dollar, and delayed interest rate cut expectations; the bullish side maintains a high locking rate for long-term holding addresses, with institutions like MicroStrategy increasing positions on dips and providing strong buying support below. Overall, the market is in a volume-contraction bottom-building phase after a significant decline, with directional choices relying on macro signals.

ETH (Ethereum)

• Current Price Range: Fluctuating around $1,670, with continued weaker performance compared to BTC; the ETH/BTC exchange rate is in a downward channel.

• Key Price Levels
◦ Support: $1,620–$1,640 (recent bottom of fluctuations), $1,600 (integer level, if breached, look down to $1,550)
◦ Resistance: $1,700 (short-term first resistance), $1,750–$1,780 (4-hour moving average resistance zone, must stabilize to ease short-term bearish trend)

• Market Logic: The bearish side is affected by continuous losses from spot ETFs, low on-chain gas demand, and RWA deployment falling short of expectations, with selling pressure significantly greater than Bitcoin; the bullish side has a large amount locked in staking, with limited long-term selling pressure, currently in a weak recovery after an excessive drop, with the rebound height highly dependent on BTC driving it.

SOL (Solana)

• Current Price Range: Around $73, experiencing a slight short-term rebound, performing slightly better than ETH but still weaker than BTC.
• Key Price Levels
◦ Support: $70 (short-term fluctuation support), $68 (previous low strong support)
◦ Resistance: $78–$80 (medium-term bullish-bearish dividing line), $86 (heavy accumulation zone)

• Market Logic: The bullish side benefits from increased on-chain USDC liquidity, a rebound in meme trading activity, and expectations of technological upgrades bringing short-term speculative fund inflows; the bearish side has faced continuous monthly selling, with long-term weak institutional spot buying, combined with monthly token unlock pressure, raising doubts about the sustainability of the rebound, likely being a pulse-like recovery during a downward process.
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