What is the market like in the cryptocurrency space in June 2026? A forecast entertainment post from 2025.

This post serves as a market prediction time capsule, written in October 2025, scheduled for release, and is for entertainment purposes only.

Background: Due to my poor ability to predict market movements, I want to practice a bit and see how severe the contrary indication can get. The reason it is not being published currently is to avoid misleading others.

Goal: Predicting June 2026, exactly eight months after the release of this post, the probability that the cryptocurrency market is in a bear market is 80%. Some logic and potential risk points that could lead to a failure of this prediction are outlined here.

1. Factors for Decline

1. Technical Analysis

The current BTC price is 10,820. Both daily and weekly charts are diverging, which indicates a weakening of upward momentum, but does not mean that a bear market will definitely commence.

2. Emotional Narrative

I have a knack for playing MEME-style tops; generally, the best time to exit is when everyone is filled with anticipation and FOMO, such as during launches on Binance, including coins like TRUMP, which have peaked at their highest moments.

3. MEME Perspective

The cryptocurrency space, overall, resembles MEME culture:

Market makers (institutions, U.S.) buy in, maintain a bullish outlook, push the price up = increase, corrections have support.

Retail investors FOMO, prices rise, and various forms of FOMO emerge.

However, during a decline phase, a similar pattern occurs:

Market makers begin to offload or find it hard to push prices up; current MicroStrategy's buying is weak, and ETH's MicroStrategy is also not performing well; BlackRock's ETF redemption was yesterday.

Retail investors, much like in MEME, are reluctant to exit and remain full of expectations (like all MEMEs, hoping for a rebound, Binance listing, getting rich).

But in MEME, I would exit quickly, while with BTC, it's different because the logic varies.

4. A $20 billion liquidation occurred in the cryptocurrency sector a few days ago.

However, the actual figure should be around $100 billion; based on average leverage, the actual liquidation amount should also be about $20 billion, which is significant, and retail investors’ funds will face temporary shortages.

5. Binance Life Series MEMEs

The highest calls reached only about $500 million. Currently, people expect large performances after listing on Binance, while I foresee that those expecting good results will end up buying in on Binance and completing the final wave of harvesting.

Retail investors currently have no money.

6. Institutions also lack funds.

MicroStrategy's financing is becoming increasingly difficult, and ETH MicroStrategy is even discounting financing.

VCs are down by 90%.

During this wave, many altcoin market makers didn't manage to push prices up, as they also ran out of funds.

Many are discussing the U.S. national reserves for Bitcoin, which actually no longer exists; it’s impossible now. Only one state has passed it, and at the national level, the probability is zero; other states have vetoed it. Moreover, the state that approved it only agreed, but has no plans to spend money to buy; it needs a separate proposal.

7. U.S. Stock Market Risks

This refers to the so-called AI bubble, which everyone knows will burst but not when; perhaps major giants transferring between hands is a signal, giving it 6-8 months to see; there may be opportunities.

Overall: Currently, there is actually not enough evidence to show we are entering a bear market; it is more likely we are entering a range market and awaiting sufficiently significant positive news to hit, for example, $150,000 — but at present, it seems all positive news on Earth has already been accounted for, and only the belief in "BTC reaching one million dollars" is sustaining, but this belief only needs about 3-5 months of grinding, which is also why I roughly scheduled this post to be released after about 7 months.

2. Factors for Increase

1. Interest Rate Cut Cycle.

However, the logical relationship between interest rate cuts, monetary easing, and price increases can be quite complex. For example, historical bull markets during rate hike cycles and bear markets during rate cut cycles also exist.

Moreover, I am not certain whether this expectation has already been factored into the current situation; this point is uncertain and will be observed.

2. Power of Consensus

The consensus around BTC is currently the strongest in history; human consensus holds power, but I cannot currently assess how strong this consensus is, to be precise, how significant the buying pressure it generates is.

3. Circulating Supply Decreases

BTC is continuously being withdrawn from exchanges.

However, having traded MEME coins, I am well aware that this point does not establish price support; even if circulating supply is only 5% of MEME coins, during moments when consensus wanes or the market hesitates, it can still plummet 95%.

But I also feel uncertain about this point, and need to observe, which is also the reason for writing this prediction post, to document my potentially incorrect thoughts now and reflect on them later.

4. Rising Mining Costs

Current mining costs have likely universally exceeded $80,000; this could be a robust support level, with data from MicroStrategy's website now being above $100,000, so $100,800 is indeed strong support.

3. My Current Operations

Let's look back and see if I was correct.

Slightly above $70,000, I went all in on BTC and held it until $120,000.

In the current situation as mentioned above, I made some adjustments.

First, I sold 20% to buy Hong Kong stocks, acquiring Alibaba as a bet on AI (all others are strong), with a price of 160.

Second, I sold 20% to invest in U.S. stocks, purchasing PDD in batches, targeting an average price of 115, realistically completing purchases below 130, depending on opportunity.

Third, I hold 10% in USDT as a research comparison; this portion is because I am studying Chan theory, and based on my learning progress, this USDT will re-enter under two conditions.

— Confirming a breakthrough above previous highs to chase up, expected to chase up around 130,000.

— After a significant drop, forming a new bottom range and entering the market once it shows a recovery, expected between 80,000-88,000, to be observed then.

This 10% in USDT is counted as previous profits; after exiting this round, regardless of future market shapes, I plan to observe exit patterns, expecting to exit when it reaches, for example, 150,000-200,000.

***

I balance well between speculation and investment, while trading is my biggest shortcoming. Engaging in non-trading practice within the system is valuable for me, though it’s challenging to articulate this value — simply put, trading is meant to avoid trading, and not trading is for better mindset trading.

It doesn’t seem simple, but that’s no longer important; let’s learn and practice.

The A10 dollar standard is the new height pursued by today's elite, simply to see who reaches it first or achieves it steadily.

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