The weekend market trend was relatively mild, fluctuating in a narrow range between 63000 and 64500. The weekend article provided short positions for Bitcoin around 64800 to 65500 and 1760 to 1780, but没有给到进场机会. Last Friday, short positions around 63900 to 64500 and 1738 to 1755 are currently slightly profitable, so let’s hold on patiently for now. The strategy for this week remains unchanged with a focus on short positions, detailed as follows:

Fundamentals:

Currently, the US-Iran relationship has shifted from "war cessation benefits" to a "high-risk negotiation" mode, and any signals of a negotiation breakdown could trigger a new wave of panic. The US-Iran talks have been going back and forth multiple times, and one still hopes for a quick restoration of peace!

The latest SEP dot plot from the Federal Reserve shows that 9 out of 19 policymakers expect at least a 25 basis point rate hike before the end of 2026, with 6 expecting two hikes. This marks a 180-degree turn from the dot plot in March, which indicated "one rate cut this year," with the market's bets on a rate hike in July soaring to 41.7% (as shown in the figure below)

This will suppress the upward momentum of prices, and the market may face panic selling moving forward. Everyone should pay attention: whether you are long or short, be sure to participate with light positions during this period!

Technical Analysis:

Currently, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score is at 0.36, indicating it is still some distance from being severely undervalued (<0), which shows that the market has not yet reached an extremely pessimistic state. Historical data shows that the MVRV value at the major bottoms in each cycle falls in the range of -0.3 to -0.6, which is when the best buying opportunities arise, and we still need to wait patiently.

Bitcoin currently has a bearish flag pattern, and it has broken below the bottom of the flag, with the weekend rebound reaching the resistance along the underside of the flag, which is one of the reasons I believe it is difficult for the market to break upward recently (as illustrated in the figure below)

On the daily chart, the moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, with insufficient upward momentum. During this time, it has not even touched the 21-day moving average. The MACD energy bars are losing momentum, and yesterday's price closed below the middle Bollinger band, leading to significant upward resistance. Continuing with short positions still seems relatively safe; please refer to the resistance levels below for staggered short positions.

Bitcoin:

Focus on upper resistance around 64400 to 64900 to 65500, with target levels below: 63200 to 62200 to 59800 to 58000 to 54000.

Ethereum:

Focus on upper resistance around 1740 to 1760 to 1780 to 1820, with target levels below: 1680 to 1640 to 1580 to 1510 to 1444.

Be mindful of the entry and exit points above and remember to participate with light positions; there may be spreads: Bitcoin ±100 points, Ethereum ±5 points. The above solely represents Jiang Feng's personal views, and everyone is advised to treat this cautiously; losses and gains are at your own risk!

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