Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.19 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.2%, or $1.27 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $315.3 billion, increasing by 0.1% in the last 7 days, with USDT holding a 59.05% share.
CoinMarketCap shows that in the top 200 projects, a small number have risen while most have fallen, including: BTC with a 7-day drop of 0.35%, ETH with a 7-day rise of 2.00%, SOL with a 7-day rise of 6.03%, AERO with a 7-day rise of 35.95%, and JTO with a 7-day rise of 33.97%.
This week, the net outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETF was $227 million; the net outflow from US Ethereum spot ETF was $10 million.
Market Forecast (June 22 - June 28):
RSI index is 47.99 (neutral, lower than last week), Fear & Greed index is 24 (fear), and Altcoin Season index is 48 (neutral).
BTC: $60,000-67,000
ETH: $1,620-1,800
SOL: $55-80
Direction judgment: Based on various technical indicators (bearish moving average, RSI below 50), the overall market is bearish dominant. Next week is likely to seek effective support downwards, or undergo sideways weak consolidation, with a low probability of an immediate V-shaped reversal.
Risk Warning:
Macro "hawkish" shadow remains, high interest rates suppress crypto assets.
Geopolitical "good news has run its course," the rebound window may close.
Market "bleeding out," risk of breaking downwards intensifies.
Understand Now
The cryptocurrency market faces "extreme fear," total market value lingers near annual lows.
This week, the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market briefly fell to $2.1 trillion, with the Fear & Greed index maintaining in the "extreme fear" range of 14 to 19. On June 18, Bitcoin's price dropped to $62,540, while Ethereum fell to around $1,650, and the overall market trading volume hit a two-year low.
The largest "Triple Witching Day" in history is coming, with $2.2 billion options expiration causing volatility.
On June 20, over $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana options contracts expired, overlapping with Wall Street's largest $8.3 trillion options "Triple Witching Day." Bitcoin's major pain point is at $65,000 (above the current price), while Ethereum's key point is $1,725, and the unwinding of market makers' hedges may exacerbate short-term price volatility.
Institutional funds continue to flow out, Bitcoin ETF faces 13 days of net selling.
Digital asset investment products saw net outflows for the third consecutive week, with this week's outflow significantly higher, totaling $4.21 billion over three weeks. The Bitcoin spot ETF has recorded net fund outflows for 13 consecutive days, with a total outflow of $4.37 billion as of early June.
US-Iran negotiations take a dramatic turn, geopolitical factors heavily impact risk assets.
At the beginning of this week, the market surged on expectations of a memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran, with cryptocurrencies rallying, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL rising over 1%. However, on June 14, the Iranian parliamentary speaker stated that Israeli attacks on Lebanon made US-Iran dialogue "impossible," and the Iranian armed forces warned of retaliation, causing a collective drop in cryptocurrencies.
Whales buying the dip against the trend, accumulating 125,000 BTC this month.
Despite continued outflows from retail and institutional funds, on-chain data shows that large investors (whales) accumulated 125,000 Bitcoin during June. Analysts point out that the current low trading volume and extreme fear market environment bear striking similarities to historical bottoms in late 2018, March 2020, and November 2022.
G20 finance ministers call on global regulators to pay attention to crypto risks.
This week, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Fukuoka, Japan, released a joint communiqué urging the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and global standard-setting bodies to monitor the risks of crypto assets and consider multilateral response measures, especially focusing on investor protection, anti-money laundering, and anti-terrorism financing.
Aztec's old contract suffers a series of attacks due to ZK vulnerabilities, over $4 million siphoned off.
The now-disabled old rollup contract of the privacy cross-chain bridge Aztec suffered coordinated attacks due to defects in ZK proof verification logic, resulting in over $4 million being siphoned off within three days. The incident highlights the long-term risk of non-upgradable "retired" smart contracts that, if they retain liquidity, may still become targets for attacks years later.
Bitcoin network mining difficulty plummets nearly 10%.
This week, the mining difficulty across the Bitcoin network significantly decreased by nearly 10%. This adjustment typically reflects that some miners have been forced to shut down equipment due to ongoing low coin prices and energy cost pressures, serving as another technical indicator of the market entering a deep adjustment phase.
US SEC approves T. Rowe Price cryptocurrency ETF, regulators advancing tokenized securities framework.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved cryptocurrency ETF by asset management giant T. Rowe Price. Meanwhile, the SEC and CFTC are jointly advancing a regulatory framework for tokenized securities, aiming to establish innovative principles of "no regulatory arbitrage."
Altcoins enter a "structural rotation" winter, funds highly concentrated in Bitcoin.
Market analysis suggests that the current cryptocurrency market is undergoing "structural rotation" — the traditional flow of funds from BTC to ETH and then to altcoins has broken down. External assets such as AI and tech giant stocks have absorbed a significant amount of risk capital, compounded by Bitcoin ETFs and institutional custody products directing funds more directly into BTC, leading to the depletion of altcoin liquidity, with only 36 of the top 100 assets achieving positive returns in the past three months.
Macroeconomics
On June 18, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations.
On June 19, the Central Bank of Russia cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with market expectations for a 50 basis point cut.
On June 18, the number of initial unemployment claims in the US for the week ending June 13 was 226,000, expected 225,000, with the previous value revised from 229,000 to 230,000. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June was 10.3, expected 10, previous value -0.4.
On June 18, the Bank of England held the benchmark interest rate at 3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations.
On June 19, according to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is currently reported at 57.9%, with a 42.1% probability of a 25 basis point hike.
ETF
According to statistics, during the period from June 15 to June 21, Net outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs was: $227 million; as of June 21, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $26.92 billion, currently holding $8.814 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $48.187 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is: $80.426 billion.
Net outflow of US Ethereum spot ETFs: $10 million.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
Dutch Blockchain Week 2026 will be held from June 22 to 28, 2026, in Amsterdam, Netherlands.
IVS2026 KYOTO will be held from July 1 to 3, 2026, in Kyoto, Japan.
WebX 2026 will be held from July 13 to 14, 2026, in Tokyo, Japan.
Important Events
On June 25 at 20:30, the US will announce the initial unemployment claims for the week of June 20 (in ten thousand persons).
On June 25 at 20:30, the US will announce the year-on-year Core PCE Price Index for May.
On June 25 at 1:30, Canada will release the minutes of the central bank's monetary policy meeting.
Project Progress
The Starknet v0.14.3 mainnet will be deployed on June 22, with the new version supporting STRK based dynamic L2 gas base fee adjustments, increasing block generation speed, reducing target L2 gas consumption per block while maintaining maximum block size, and retiring RPC 0.8.
The Optimism "staking-based prioritization" four-cycle experiment will end on June 23.
The Ronin network game Fishing Frenzy will be shut down, with servers going offline on June 25.
Token Unlocking
KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 17.26 million tokens on June 20, valued at approximately $8.39 million, accounting for 4.49% of circulating supply.
SOON (SOON) will unlock 21.42 million tokens on June 23, valued at approximately $3.45 million, accounting for 4.07% of circulating supply.
Humanity (H) will unlock 251 million tokens on June 25, valued at approximately $54.77 million, accounting for 9.41% of circulating supply.
Plasma (XPL) will unlock 8.889 million tokens on June 25, valued at approximately $10.42 million, accounting for 3.56% of circulating supply.
Sahara Ai (SAHARA) will unlock 1.13 billion tokens on June 26, valued at approximately $14.75 million, accounting for 30.1% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research serves as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical toolkit. Through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports," we analyze market trends; leveraging our exclusive column "Hot Coin Selected" (AI + expert dual screening), we pinpoint potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also meet you face-to-face through live broadcasts to interpret hot topics and predict trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate through cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and investments carry risks. We strongly recommend that investors engage in investments based on full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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