Yesterday, both the US and Chinese stock markets were closed, and the overall cryptocurrency market maintained a weak recovery trend. In the short term, the 1-hour and 2-hour indicators have already reached relatively high positions, while the 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, and 12-hour indicators are still maintaining a bullish recovery rhythm, leaving space for both bulls and bears.

The most obvious characteristic of the current market is: can't go up, nor can it fall.

If the market first pulls back to complete the 1-hour level adjustment, there will be an opportunity to go long with the trend; if it first attacks the upper pressure area, it will still be a favorable position for bears. In the short term, the focus is on recovery, while in the medium term, attention is on pressure, and the competition between bulls and bears is entering a heated stage.

Recently, the market has been repeatedly speculating on the so-called peace agreement, but the core issue that truly affects the market is never the news itself, but liquidity. Regardless of how the geopolitical situation changes, the current state of continuous capital outflow has not changed. The Federal Reserve maintains a high-interest-rate policy while removing explicit guidance on rate cuts, and the market is even beginning to reprice the possibility of another rate hike by the end of the year. In a high-interest-rate environment, zero-yield assets like Bitcoin are naturally suppressed.

Structurally, Bitcoin is currently operating within the range box of 63500-64900, continuously washing around the upper and lower bounds of the range for several days. Sell orders deep data show that there is a dense accumulation of orders above 63500, indicating that the selling pressure above is still heavy. At the same time, the daily moving averages are maintaining a bearish arrangement, with MACD operating in the death cross area below the zero-axis. The overall bearish structure has not fundamentally changed.

The short-term market seems more like it is waiting for a new catalyst to break the balance rather than actively choosing a direction.
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This article was originally published by 【Huiying Community】 and represents personal opinions only. Due to certain delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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